World Tour Championship: Steve Palmer's final-round preview, best bet, free tip

When to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 6.30am Sunday

Best bets

Jon Rahm to win the DP World Tour Championship
2pts 10-11 bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

Story so far

Jon Rahm took six weeks off prior to the DP World Tour Championship, but the Spaniard has slipped straight back into his old routine and has set up a golden chance to win both the tournament and the Race to Dubai crown.

Rahm, available at 7-1 ante-post for the Tour Championship and 10-1 for the Race to Dubai just before Christmas, is tied for the lead through three rounds at the Earth Course. He is 10-11 for Tour Championship glory with 18 holes to play.

European Tour maiden Mike Lorenzo-Vera shares top spot on the leaderboard, while two-time DP World Tour Championship winner Rory McIlroy is alone in third place, two shots behind. McIlroy started the week as 4-1 favourite.

Even a tie for second place might be enough for Rahm to win the Race to Dubai, given that RTD leader Bernd Wiesberger is languishing in 24th spot. If Rahm finishes second on his own, Wiesberger must finish tied for fifth with one other – or better – to deny Rahm RTD success. If Rahm wins the event, Wiesberger must finish solo second to win the RTD.

Leaderboard
-15 Mike Lorenzo-Vera, Jon Rahm
-13 Rory McIlroy
-11 Tommy Fleetwood
-10 Thomas Pieters
-9 Marcus Kinhult
-8 Danny Willett, Christiaan Bezuidenhout
-6 Tom Lewis, Matthew Fitzpatrick

Best prices
10-11 J Rahm, 5-2 R McIlroy, 4 M Lorenzo-Vera, 18 T Fleetwood, 70 T Pieters, 200 M Kinhult, 300 bar

Final-round preview

Jon Rahm appears on the verge of scooping the lot at the Earth Course – the DP World Tour Championship title and Race to Dubai success look within his grasp.

Rust was the potential stumbling block for Rahm as he teed up in Dubai – he admitted that he went almost five weeks without touching a golf club as he prepared for his forthcoming wedding between the Spanish Open and the World Tour Championship – but rounds of 66, 69 and 66 have shown the break has had no impact on his effectiveness.

Mike Lorenzo-Vera has made a habit of fast finishes and weekend stumbles on the European Tour, so the maiden seems likely to fade from the final twoball, and the biggest hurdle for Rahm to overcome is Rory McIlroy.

Dubai is a happy hunting ground for McIlroy and he is full of form and confidence, so from two shots back, the Northern Irishman will feel like a DP World Tour Championship hat-trick is on the cards. From level pegging with 18 holes to go, Rahm versus McIlroy would be a tough contest to call, but the two-shot advantage that the younger man has swings the battle his way.

Tommy Fleetwood won the Nedbank Challenge from six shots behind last Sunday, so from four back seven days later, the Englishman will not have given up hope, while Thomas Pieters is also capable of entering the equation from five shots behind if he can find some putting form to marry to his imperious ball-striking.

Expect McIlroy, Fleetwood and Pieters to shuffle forward from behind Rahm, but the brilliant Spaniard to do enough to repel them all. He has made winning a habit, particularly on the European Tour, where he closed with a 62 to win the Irish Open in July, then romped to a five-shot triumph in his national Open last month.

Rahm and Lorenzo-Vera are scheduled on the first tee at 8am UK and Ireland time. A sunny day with light breezes is expected.

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