Steve Palmer's free predictions and golf betting tips for the South African Open

When to bet on the South African Open

By 4.20am on Thursday

Where can I watch the South African Open

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11am on Thursday

Steve Palmer's South African Open predictions

Wilco Nienaber
3pts each-way 40-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Angel Ayora
2.5pts each-way 35-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Martin Couvra
1.5pts each-way 60-1 Betfair, Power

Brandon Stone
1.5pts each-way 60-1 bet365

Casey Jarvis
1.5pts each-way 45-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Recommended

4/5

NEW CUSTOMER OFFER

Get £25 In Free Bets When You Bet £5 On Golf

NEW CUSTOMER OFFER

• Great acca features, including the ability to edit a live accumulator

CLAIM OFFER

18+ T&Cs apply

18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 5x £5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply. 

Bet £5 on golf with Ladbrokes and claim £25 in FREE BETS

Steve Palmer's South African Open preview

LIV Golf raider Dean Burmester is favourite for the South African Open and the big-hitting 35-year-old will be looking forward to tackling a short links which looks set to be overwhelmed by long drivers.

Burmester and his LIV colleague Charl Schwartzel are top-quality players teeing up in a weak grade this week, but their questionable preparation means the short odds can be resisted. Playing under floodlights in Saudi Arabia followed by LIV Adelaide – just six competitive rounds – means the headline acts may not be as ready for this test as others deeper in the betting.

Laurie Canter downed tools and jetted back to England after a dismal putting display at the Qatar Masters at the start of this month. Canter is a former South Africa Amateur champion well suited to this week's assignment, but he may take time to get going again after his break.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Wilco Nienaber 40-1

The last six South African Opens have been won by a native and Bloemfontein bomber Wilco Nienaber can continue the streak. This giant's effortless power makes him likely to thrive at a soft Durban CC in calm weather. A maiden DP World Tour title could be coming at the age of 24.

Nienaber was a brilliant amateur, who won the SA Amateur in 2019 before finishing second in the 2020 Joburg Open, then he made his Sunshine Tour breakthrough in 2021. A few seasons bouncing around different tours followed, but fourth place at DPWT Qualifying School in November has finally allowed him to put some cement around his schedule.

With a DPWT card in his pocket and some pressure lifted, Nienaber won the NTT Data Pro Am in his homeland the week before last, romping to a seven-shot victory at Fancourt in an event co-sanctioned by the Challenge Tour and the Sunshine Tour.

A missed cut by a shot last week at a tight Kenya Open layout meant a timely weekend breather before a much more suitable assignment this week. Nienaber has finished 11th, 15th and 12th in his last three SA Open starts and can further bolster that record on Sunday.

Next best bet

Angel Ayora 35-1

Rising star Angel Ayora, a 20-year-old Spaniard with a swing to die for, can also propel his ball huge distances without breaking sweat. Like Nienaber, Ayora will feel the par-fives and the trio of driveable par-fours are at his mercy.

Ayora's first Challenge Tour campaign started with a couple of bright performances in South Africa early last year, then he won his maiden CT title in September, earning immediate promotion to the DPWT. On his return to South Africa in December for the Alfred Dunhill he finished fifth, beaten by only two shots.

Ayora, 14th in Qatar and 20th in Kenya in his last two starts, carded a pair of 69s at the weekend and that tidy Kenya warm-up spin may be followed by a DPWT breakthrough.

Other selections

Martin Couvra 60-1
Brandon Stone 60-1
Casey Jarvis 45-1

Martin Couvra won the SA Amateur in 2023 at Mount Edgecombe CC, which is 15 minutes up the road from Durban CC. A similar venue could produce a similar result. The cocksure French youngster won on the Challenge Tour when still an amateur in September, 2023. His first tournament in South Africa as a pro was the South African Open in December, 2023, and he finished 12th.

That love affair with South Africa has continued – he was sixth in the Cape Town Open last year, then fourth in the Nelson Mandela Bay Championship, before earning promotion from the CT. His first start as a DPWT member resulted in seventh place in the Alfred Dunhill and his rookie season has continued well with fourth spot in Bahrain and fifth in Qatar.

Brandon Stone is a three-time DPWT champion. His maiden title came in the 2016 South African Open, swiftly followed by Alfred Dunhill glory, then the 2018 Scottish Open Rolex Series event completed his hat-trick. Stone rediscovered his A-game at the end of last year, enjoying a career revival, and this could be the week he kickstarts 2025. He is a long-time Durban CC member who has played the course a lot since the 2023 renovation, reporting that he loves the changes.

Casey Jarvis threatened a maiden DPWT title at the end of last year. The hugely promising South African youngster has made eight cuts in a row and warmed up nicely for his national Open by finishing 20th in Kenya, closing with rounds of 69 and 67. He won on the CT in 2023 and can go close in the higher grade on Sunday.

Recommended

4/5

NEW CUSTOMER OFFER

Get £25 In Free Bets When You Bet £5 On Golf

NEW CUSTOMER OFFER

• Great acca features, including the ability to edit a live accumulator

CLAIM OFFER

18+ T&Cs apply

18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 5x £5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply. 

Bet £5 on golf with Ladbrokes and claim £25 in FREE BETS

Course guide for the South African Open

• Course Durban Country Club, Durban, South Africa
• Prize money $1.5m ($250,000 to the winner)
• Length 6,780 yards
• Par 72 – four par-fives; ten par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Laurie Canter (53), John Parry (91), Romain Langasque (92), Jordan Smith (104), Shaun Norris (106)
• Course records - 72 holes 263 Ernie Els (2011) 18 holes 62 John Bland (1993)
• Course winner taking part J.C Ritchie
• When to bet By 4.20am on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11am on Thursday
• Time difference South Africa is two hours ahead of UK and Ireland time
• Last week – Kenya Open 1 J Kruyswijk (66-1), 2 J Parry (35-1), 3 D Germishuys (125-1), 4 J Schaper (30-1), 5 G De Leo (150-1), J Rutherford (100-1)
• Course type Links
• Course overview Established in 1922, Durban CC has a proud history, but course-form students should probably ignore previous results there. It has staged 16 South African Opens (the last was in 2005) and the 2022 Jonsson Workwear Open was a Challenge Tour event there, but a seven-month renovation from May, 2023, transformed the layout. The course runs alongside the Indian Ocean and plays as a links test, with undulating fairways flanked by sand dunes. Two short par-fives on the front nine represent eagle opportunities, while there are three driveable par-fours
• Story of the last SA Open (2023) Dean Burmester triumphed by three shots at the Blair Atholl Estate
• Weather forecast Cloudy but calm throughout, with a threat of light showers for Sunday
• Type of player suited to the challenge This is a short links with soft fairways which should be overwhelmed by long drivers in the forecast calm
• Key attribute Power

Steve Palmer's South African Open key stat

The last six South African Opens have been won by a South African

Click for free bets and betting offers from the Racing Post

Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Offers are handpicked and come from operators our experts have first-hand experience of. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of horseracing and sports betting.

For those looking for even more extensive golf coverage don't miss Palmer's extra pointers every Wednesday in the Racing Post newspaper.

As well as his tips and insight you will also get expert spotlight comments for all players in our extensive PGA Tour and DP Tour price comparison grids which include course and recent form, plus Palmer's unique attribute icons to help identify the type of players likely to be suited to conditions each week.