Steve Palmer's Open Championship specials preview and free golf betting tips

Where to watch the Open Championship

Sky Sports Main Event and Golf, 6.35am Thursday

Best bets

Ewen Ferguson top debutant
2pts each-way 12-1 bet365, BoyleSports

Branden Grace top South African
2pts each-way 4-1 bet365

Shane Lowry top Irishman
2pts 3-1 Betfair, BoyleSports, Power

Jason Day to miss cut
2pts 6-4 bet365

Ryan Fox top New Zealander (1-2) & Emiliano Grillo top Argentinian (2-7)
2pts double bet365

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Open Championship specials preview

Ewen Ferguson has fond memories of Royal Liverpool – the Scot won the Boys Amateur Championship there in 2013 – and he is playing well enough to make an impact in this week's Open Championship.

Ferguson dominated the final of that prestigious amateur event a decade ago, romping to a 10&9 triumph, and the Glasgow-born 27-year-old knows how to handle links golf. Given how well he has been performing in recent weeks, the 12-1 Ferguson for top Open debutant looks full of juice.

Ferguson, a two-time DP World Tour champion, showed how adept he is in a breeze when winning the Qatar Masters on a windy Sunday in Doha. That was a brave breakthrough success from a gutsy player. He beat Maverick McNealy in a Walker Cup singles match at Royal Lytham in 2015.Ferguson will be thrilled with how he has been playing in the lead-up to his Open debut – fourth place in the British Masters followed by 12th spot in the Scottish Open. He seems the most likely Open first-timer to feature on the leaderboard this week.

Branden Grace can draw upon a wealth of Open experience and memories of his incredible round of 62 in the 2017 Open at Birkdale, where he finished sixth, and the 35-year-old looks a strong bet for top South African honours this week.

Grace has always been a links master, winning the Dunhill Links Championship in 2012, and he has been in decent nick on the LIV circuit this year. Louis Oosthuizen has been struggling for fitness, playing through an elbow tendon injury.

Rory McIlroy has been all the rage with Open punters after his Scottish Open victory on Sunday, but it remains to be seen how he handles the spotlight and pressure. Preference at the prices in the top Irishman market are for Shane Lowry, who has won the Open much more recently than McIlroy and has been producing consistently solid golf.

Lowry, who will be licking his lips at the forecast of three breezy days to start this championship, will feel confident he can keep pace with McIlroy, but it is difficult to say the same about Jason Day. The Australian looks a big price at odds-against to miss the cut given how poorly he has been playing either side of his shock Byron Nelson victory in May.

Day, relentlessly plagued by injury and illness, has missed four of his last six cuts, and has missed the cut in his last two Open starts.

Ryan Fox, an excellent links golfer carrying more confidence than ever, should beat Daniel Hillier in the top New Zealander market, while Colonial champion Emiliano Grillo should know far too much for amateur debutant Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira. A Fox-Grillo double pays almost evens at odds of 1-2 and 2-7.

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