Steve Palmer's Open Championship predictions, best bets & free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Open Championship at the Old Course, St Andrews.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 6.30am on Thursday

Best bets

Rory McIlroy
5pts each-way 10-1 Hills

Jordan Spieth
3pts each-way 18-1 Hills

Shane Lowry
2.5pts each-way 22-1 Hills

Patrick Reed
1pt each-way 125-1 bet365

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Anticipation for the 150th Open Championship has reached fever pitch - Major golf returns to the Home of Golf for the first time in seven years - and there is a feeling in the air that this week's St Andrews showpiece could be a modern classic.

The cream traditionally rises to the top of the leaderboard when the Open comes to St Andrews. In the distant past, Bobby Jones, Sam Snead, Peter Thomson and Bobby Locke enjoyed Open glory on this hallowed turf. Then Jack Nicklaus, Seve Ballesteros and Nick Faldo followed suit, before Tiger Woods provided a pair of golfing clinics in 2000 and 2005.

This famous strip of golfing land on the east coast of Fife seems to bring out the best in the legends of the game. Louis Oosthuizen (2010) is the only St Andrews Open winner since 1964 (nine events) who had not already won a Major. Expect a class act to be holding the Claret Jug aloft on Sunday.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Rory McIlroy 10-1

Speculation persists that Tiger Woods may use St Andrews as his sayonara - waving goodbye on the Swilcan Bridge and admitting injuries have finally defeated him - and it would be fitting if another 'generational' talent used this week to get back to Major-winning ways.

Rory McIlroy always seemed destined to be the man to catch up with Woods on the list of Major victories. The free-flowing Northern Irishman won his fourth Major by the age of 25 and only Nicklaus and Woods had achieved that feat before. Predictions for career McIlroy Major wins at that point were generally in the high teens.

Of course, McIlroy has got stuck on four and had his 33rd birthday in May - a married father who doubtless accepts he will fail to realise his full potential. There is still plenty of time for this little master to establish himself as one of the all-time greats, though, and a St Andrews success can kickstart that process.

Three more Major triumphs would put McIlroy level with Arnold Palmer and others as the seventh-most prolific Major champion in history - and that target seems well within the world number two's compass.

It is significant that McIlroy has moved second in the world rankings. It is testament to how consistently he has performed since dropping to 16th in August last year. Victory in the CJ Cup soon followed, then 2022 Major form of 2-8-5, as well as a thrilling Canadian Open success a month ago - his 21st PGA Tour title.

McIlroy showcased his improved wedge-play in that Canada coup, and his putting has improved enormously with guidance from Brad Faxon. The stroke looks so much better and he lies eighth in the PGA Tour putting stats. There is an all-round solidity about McIlroy coming into this Open which will understandably excite him and his army of fans.

St Andrews is a venue which McIlroy fell in love with from the off. He was third in the 2007 Dunhill Links Championship when still a European Tour maiden, then finished second in the event three times after that. And in the 2010 Open at St Andrews, he spectacularly demonstrated his comfort on this track with an opening round of 63.

That pacesetting effort 12 years ago came despite a missed tiddler at the 17th, then the weather gods turned on the leader. A terrible second-round tee time meant McIlroy was out in gale-force winds, slumping to an 80, struggling to maintain balance over putts. A 69-68 weekend under calmer skies meant a share of third place.

McIlroy injured himself playing football in the lead-up to the 2015 Open at St Andrews, so had to sit that one out. Twelve years after that horror Friday, he finally gets the chance for revenge. The weather forecast is much more encouraging this time, with no obvious draw bias, and his majestic driving will be able to turn some par-fours into par-threes. His long-game in the second round of the JP McManus Pro-Am last time out was in mint condition and this genius of a golfer can give the 150th Open the champion it deserves.

Next best bet

Jordan Spieth 18-1

McIlroy won the Claret Jug in 2014, then three years later his pal Jordan Spieth did likewise. McIlroy and Spieth can lead a four-pronged staking plan of Major champions who possess the necessary class and courage to produce on this grand stage.

Spieth, a three-time Major winner, tied fourth in the 2015 Open at St Andrews, missing out on the playoff by just a shot. He has never missed a cut in the Open (44-36-4-30-1-9-20-2) and relishes the test of creativity provided by links golf.

The Texan will be pleased to see some breeze in the forecast and his Scottish Open warm-up went well, with tenth place on his Renaissance Club debut. His missed cut in the Travelers Championship last month can be ignored because he was labouring with illness before his Thursday 75. Spieth's 2022 campaign has been solid and a firm and fast St Andrews has him licking his lips.

Other selections

Shane Lowry 22-1

Patrick Reed 125-1

Spieth's magic hands around the greens will count for plenty this week - and the same comment applies to Shane Lowry. Expect this dynamic duo to provide an exhibition in the art of scrambling over the next four days.

Lowry, like McIlroy and Spieth, carries the self-belief of a former Open champion. It was such a gutsy effort to deliver in front of fervent galleries at Royal Portrush in 2019 and the hearty celebrations across Ireland are only just beginning to die down. The popular Offaly man destroyed the field by six shots. He won the Irish Open as an amateur on a links in 2009 and has always exuded comfort on this type of terrain.

Lowry finished 12th in his delayed Open title defence last year and it is difficult to imagine him being an also-ran this time given how impressive he has been all season. There is an all-round consistency about the 35-year-old Lowry that bodes extremely well for St Andrews, where he has three times finished in the top six in the Dunhill Links.

Lowry tied ninth in the Irish Open and third in the JP McManus Pro-Am before wisely skipping the Renaissance for a pre-Open breather.

Pick of the outsiders is Patrick Reed, who has got his equipment sorted in time to be a serious threat. Reed did not settle with PXG clubs, their partnership ending after less than six months, and he is thrilled to be a free agent once again. Back using his preferred tools on his LIV Golf debut last time out, Reed found a groove, improving each day on his way to third place.

Reed finished 20th at St Andrews in 2015 - just his second Open start - followed by 12th in 2016 at Troon and tenth in 2019 at Portrush. The Texan loves competing in a breeze and has the touch to handle links assignments. His bottle at the highest level has been proved by his 2018 Masters triumph and regular Ryder Cup heroics.

The LIV Golf controversy may unsettle some of the defectors - and there could be factions in the locker room - but this is all water off a duck's back for Reed. He has got used to failing popularity contests - this feisty character actually seems to thrive when the crowd are against him - and on-course focus seems assured.

St Andrews course guide

Course Old Course, St Andrews, Fife, Scotland
Prize money $14m ($2.5m to the winner)
Length 7,313 yards
Par 72 - two par-fives; 14 par-fours; two par-threes
Field 156 - The cut Top 70 plus ties advance to the third round
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Rory McIlroy (2), Jon Rahm (3), Patrick Cantlay (4), Xander Schauffele (5)

Course records - 72 holes 269 Tiger Woods (2000) 18 holes 61 Ross Fisher (2017 Dunhill Links Championship)

Course winners taking part John Daly, Tiger Woods (twice), Paul Lawrie, Padraig Harrington (twice), Lee Westwood, Louis Oosthuizen, Branden Grace, Zach Johnson, Tyrrell Hatton (twice), Victor Perez, Danny Willett

When to bet By 6.30am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 6.30am on Thursday

Playoff A three-hole playoff for all players tied for the lead after 72 holes, with playoff continuing as sudden-death if players remain tied after the three holes

Last week - Scottish Open 1 X Schauffele (20-1), 2 K Kitayama (250-1), 3 J Kim (250-1), T4 P Cantlay (25-1), T Fleetwood (45-1), T6 J Donaldson (500-1), M Fitzpatrick (20-1), C Tringale (160-1), B Wu (500-1); Barbasol Championship 1 T Mullinax (175-1), 2 K Streelman (22-1), 3 M Hubbard (25-1), 4 H Long (80-1), 5 V Whaley (66-1), 6 A Svensson (25-1)

Course type Links

Course overview Known as the Home of Golf, St Andrews has hosted the Open 29 times, most recently in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015. The Dunhill Links Championship has been played every year since 2001 (apart from the 2020 Covid cancellation) and two of the four rounds in that event are at St Andrews. The Old Course has wide fairways, flat and fast-running terrain, pot bunkers and enormous greens (seven of them shared by two holes). The ancient seaside links relies on wind to keep scoring down. It is the easiest venue on the Open rota in calm conditions, but can be challenging when windswept. Six under par was enough to get into a playoff in 1995, but five years later Tiger Woods reached 19 under par

Story of last year Collin Morikawa became the first Open debutant to lift the Claret Jug since Ben Curtis in 2003. Morikawa fended off Jordan Spieth at Royal St George's to triumph by two shots

Weather forecast A mixture of sunshine and clouds, with temperatures around 17C. Moderate breezes all week

Type of player suited to the challenge The firm terrain means some of the par-fours are driveable for the big hitters. Expect plenty of two-putt birdies on par-fours for the powerhouses. Strong lag putting on these enormous greens is probably the key to success

Key attribute Touch

Spotlight insight Five of the last eight Open winners had won one of their previous five tournaments; all eight had a top-three in one of their previous five tournaments

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