Outlook bleak for Day but Leishman could shine

Marc Leishman has proven himself in Open combat over the last few years, seriously challenging for the Claret Jug, and the Australian should perform well on the links again this week.

Leishman closed with a superb 65 for a share of fifth place in the 2014 Open at Royal Liverpool, then was a playoff loser to Zach Johnson the following year at St Andrews. A strong start to this campaign makes the strapping six-footer a title dark horse.

Leishman may be outclassed by better players before the trophy presentation on Sunday, but a top-20 finish looks well within his capabilities. The 33-year-old registered a second US Tour victory in March, winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational with late heroics, and his confidence is high.

Driving and putting better than he ever has, Leishman tied for fifth place in his final Open warm-up event, the Quicken Loans National.

Since the start of the 2013 season, in which Leishman finished fourth in the Masters, he has notched a top-20 placing in each of the four Majors. He has twice played in the Presidents Cup and does not seem fazed by big stages.

Another Aussie may find Royal Birkdale more difficult to conquer. Jason Day, who has missed his last two cuts, reacted to those setbacks by downing tools for three weeks. He returns to face an extremely tough track which he had never seen until Monday and there must be every chance he has another weekend off.

Day missed the US Open cut by nine shots, then again felt the axe when two shots shy of the qualifying mark in the low-key Travelers Championship. His game has been in poor shape for most of this season and the Open is the Major in which he has always been least competitive.

Day is obviously a class act who will find his swing again at some stage, but anyone backing him at 1-4 with bet365 to make the cut this week is taking a serious risk. Phil Mickelson is also a 1-4 shot to make the cut with the same firm, and Lefty is also worth opposing.

Mickelson parted with long-time caddie Jim Mackay a month ago, ending one of the most successful partnerships in golf. Mackay, who had double knee replacement surgery in November, has been replaced by Mickelson's brother Tim for the rest of the year. The lack of a quality bagman leaves Lefty vulnerable in a tournament where club selection and course-management are more important than usual.

The long-game quality of Emiliano Grillo makes the Argentinian a strong favourite to beat Fabrizio Zanotti, Jhonattan Vegas and Sebastian Munoz in the top South American market, while punters looking for an enormous price should consider an outright dual-forecast interest on Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott filling the first two places.

Recommendations
M Leishman top-20 finish
3pts 5-2 Betfair, Paddy Power
J Day to miss the cut
1pt 11-4 bet365
P Mickelson to miss the cut
1pt 11-4 bet365
E Grillo top South American
1pt 8-5 Betfair, Paddy Power
Garcia-Scott dual forecast
0.5pt 325-1 Sky Bet