Steve Palmer's Hero World Challenge final-round golf betting tips and predictions

Where to watch the Hero World Challenge

Sky Sports Golf, 4.30pm Sunday

Best bets

Wyndham Clark to win 3.46pm twoball
5pts 4-5 bet365, Hills

Sam Burns to win 4.08pm twoball
3pts 3-4 bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

Justin Thomas to win Hero World Challenge
1pt 18-1 bet365, BoyleSports, Hills

Story so far

Two months off appears to have done Scottie Scheffler the world of good and the refreshed American will take a three-shot lead into the final round of the Hero World Challenge in The Bahamas.

Scheffler, a pre-tournament 5-1 chance, is no bigger than 1-3 with 18 holes to play at The Albany. With a new putter in his bag, the world number one has been galvanised on the greens, gaining almost four strokes on the field with his putting.

Rounds of 69, 66 and 65 have put Scheffler at 16 under par through three rounds. Viktor Hovland, his ante-post market rival, has badly underperformed and is tailed off, leaving Matt Fitzpatrick and Justin Thomas as the only players with five shots of the lead.

Scheffler and Fitzpatrick are scheduled to tee off at 5.25pm UK and Ireland time in the final twoball. A sunny, hot, calm final day is forecast for the island.

Hero World Challenge leaderboard

-16 Scottie Scheffler
-13 Matt Fitzpatrick
-11 Justin Thomas
-10 Jason Day, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth

Best odds for the Hero World Challenge

1-3 S Scheffler, 6 M Fitzpatrick, 18 J Thomas, 30 C Morikawa, 45 J Spieth, 55 T Finau, 70 J Day, 150 bar

Hero World Challenge final-round predictions

Scottie Scheffler was a broken man after the Ryder Cup, infuriated by several months of poor putting, exasperated with wasting his magnificant ball-striking. He had a holiday in Italy after leaving the Marco Simone and put his clubs away for a while.

His return to practice has been slow – he admitted in his pre-tournament media conference that he has not been working too hard – but key breakthroughs seems to have been made with his putting stroke. The club which has been holding him back so much has become a strength this week.

Having ranked 161st in strokes-gained putting on the PGA Tour last season, Scheffler recruited Phil Kenyon as his new putting coach, and the pair have made instant progress. Scheffler has also put a new putter into play, ditching his Scotty Cameron for another blade made by Olson, a relatively unknown manufacturer.

Reborn on the greens, Scheffler has been enjoying himself in The Bahamas this week, and outright punters will be wondering whether there is any point in trying to oppose the leader at this stage. Given the odds – and the nature of the course – there is just about enough value in the 18-1 Justin Thomas to recommend a small Sunday interest. Scheffler's new stroke has not been tested under Sunday pressure and if he stalls in front, it seems likely that somebody will be nipping at his heels.

The Hero carries world ranking points, so is of much greater importance to Thomas than to many others. Languishing 27th in the world rankings, the Hero is an ideal opportunity for JT to move back closer to his more familiar place in the world's top ten. There are certain 2024 events for which he is not yet qualified.

Expect Thomas to play hard to the line, fully focused for the final 18 holes, and 18-1 about him overcoming a five-shot deficit to take the title seems more than fair. He has finished fifth in each of the previous three World Challenges and has underlined his liking for the course this week.

Form figures of 12-5-4, most recently impressing in the Nedbank Challenge in South Africa, have shown a former world number one getting his act together again.

The comeback from injury of Will Zalatoris has not gone well. The Californian, absent since the WGC-Match Play in March with back problems, has carded rounds of 81, 68 and 79 this week to sit bottom of the leaderboard at 12 over par. Zalatoris can be readily opposed with US Open champion Wyndham Clark in their Sunday twoball.

Another player making a comeback after a long spell on the sidelines – Tiger Woods – has been talking a good game about his physical shape. Woods can be encouraged by the first three days, but this is his first competitive 72-hole outing since the Genesis Invitational in the middle of February. He failed to make it through 72 holes in the Masters in April.

Sam Burns, who finished third at The Albany in 2021, looks great value at a shade of odds-on to defeat Woods over the final 18 holes. Burns carded a Saturday 68, appearing to shed the rust accumulated since the Ryder Cup.

Click for free bets and betting offers from the Racing Post

Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Offers are handpicked and come from operators our experts have first-hand experience of. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of horseracing and sports betting.