Matt Fitzpatrick could be ready to reel in frontrunning Aaron Rai

Sky Sports Golf, 6am Sunday

Story so far
European Tour maiden Aaron Rai leads the Hong Kong Open by six shots going into the final round at Hong Kong Golf Club, Fanling.

Rai, a best-price 80-1 ante-post, has been in charge since firing a second-round 61 on Friday. He made his first bogeys of the week in round three – at the ninth and the 18th – but the chasing pack faltered too.

Rai is a general 2-5 to convert his advantage into victory. He has won three times on the Challenge Tour, but a tie for fifth place is the best he has managed on the main circuit.

The leader will be joined in the final threeball for round four by Matthew Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood, who are tied for second place.

Fleetwood and Patrick Reed, who shares 53rd spot, were 13-2 joint-favourites ante-post. Fleetwood can be backed at 7-1 for Hong Kong glory with 18 holes to play.

Leaderboard
-16 Aaron Rai
-10 Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood
-9 Sergio Garcia, Jason Scrivener
-8 Thongchai Jaidee, Victor Perez

Best prices
4-9 A Rai, 7 T Fleetwood, 8 M Fitzpatrick, 20 S Garcia, 33 J Scrivener, 150 bar

Final-day advice
There were plenty of positives for Aaron Rai coming into the Hong Kong Open and the Wolverhampton man probably had a decent amount of backers, despite being deep in the ante-post betting, well behind the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia and Rafael Cabrera-Bello.

Rai banked the biggest cheque of his career the week before last, courtesy of eighth place in the Nedbank Challenge, and that must have given the youngster an enormous lift. He followed up with 48th of 60 in the DP World Tour Championship last week, but that was not a bad effort considering it was his course debut in a high-class field on a track which strongly favours big-hitters.

Rai topped the driving accuracy stats on the European Tour last season and Hong Kong Golf Club is the ultimate test of that department of the game. Lack of driving distance and inconsistent putting are his weaknesses, but he has enjoyed the greens of HKGC, lying third in the putting stats through three rounds.

The Hong Kong Open has become a question of whether Rai can hold his nerve. And even if the maiden wobbles, will anyone be close enough to take advantage?

Rai seems a calm, collected, methodical, no-frills character – he appears aged 23 going on 63 – and one of the slowest players on the circuit, an issue not helped by the fact he wears two gloves and has head covers for his irons. He could bore the chasing pack into submission by finding fairways and greens, churning out pars. This looks like a modern-day Gary Orr in the making – a grinder obsessed with posture and precision – and there is no better course for Rai to flourish than HKGC.

The biggest negative for Rai supporters is the fact that two world-class players have forced their way into the final threeball for Sunday. There has to be an intimidation factor for Rai, with Fleetwood and Matthew Fitzpatrick alongside him on payday.

Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick are two much more fluent, confident and successful players, who are likely to provide plenty of dagger stares in Rai's direction if the leader drops to his favoured snail's pace. If Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick put early dents into Rai's lead, the frontrunner could easily hit a wall of tension.

Fitzpatrick, the only member of the top seven on the leaderboard who had an early-late set of tee-times on Thursday and Friday, is probably the most likely to poop on Rai's party. Fitzpatrick faced some difficult morning conditions on Thursday, resulting in a level-par first round from which he has done well to recover. An eagle and eleven birdies over the last two rounds have got the sharpshooting Sheffield man on Rai's tail.

Racing Post Sport followers are on Fitzpatrick each-way at 14-1, while the other ante-post recommendation, Jason Scrivener, is tied for fourth spot. There is definitely scope for two place payouts, while Fitzpatrick seems best equipped of the chasing pack to reel in Rai.
The leader may stumble over the finishing line in front, with Fitzpatrick, Scrivener, Garcia and Fleetwood filling the places.

The final threeball of Rai, Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick is scheduled on the tee at 3.35am UK and Ireland time. A calm day is forecast, with showers expected from 1pm local time (5am UK) to the close of play.

Outright recommendation
M Fitzpatrick without A Rai
2pts 2-1 bet365

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