Jaunty Justin Harding threatening European Tour breakthrough

Sky Sports Golf, 7.30am Sunday

Story so far
Kurt Kitayama and Justin Harding, 80-1 and 45-1 respectively ante-post, are joint-leaders of the Mauritius Open with one round to go at the Four Seasons course.

Kitayama, who held the halfway lead, struggled to a third-round 70, while Harding carded eight birdies in a 64 which propelled him into the final group for Sunday.

Ante-post market leader, Dylan Frittelli, is tied for 12th place, seven shots off the pace, while second-favourite, Jordan Smith, is another four adrift in 32nd spot.

South African Harding, a prolific winner on minor tours this year, is 6-4 favourite with 18 holes to play, while American Kitayama can be backed at 15-8.

Leaderboard
-16 Kurt Kitayama, Justin Harding
-13 S Chikkarangappa, Masahiro Kawamura, Matthieu Pavon
-12 Victor Perez
-11 Gavin Moynihan
-10 Oliver Bekker, Max Schmitt, Clement Sordet, Grant Forrest

Best prices
6-4 J Harding, 15-8 K Kitayama, 10 M Pavon, 12 V Perez, M Kawamura, 25 S Chikkarangappa, 66 bar

Final-day advice
A hot, stormy day with hardly any wind is in store for Four Seasons for the final round and low scores should be available unless the heavens open up for long periods. The lack of breeze gives the chasing pack hope of catching the runaway duo at the top.

Anyone double-figures under par or better probably has a chance of claiming the trophy, given Four Seasons has already yielded three rounds of 64 and seven rounds of 65.

A trio of talented Frenchmen seem the most likely to charge from the pack to put pressure on the leading pair. Matthieu Pavon, Victor Perez and Clement Sordet all have the ability to destroy Four Seasons from three, four and six shots behind.

Pavon, Perez and Sordet – in order of greatest chance first – have a sniff of the title. But Justin Harding is the champion-elect after his Saturday 64.

Harding has won four tournaments from May onwards – two on the Sunshine Tour and two on the Asian Tour – bursting into the top 100 of the world rankings in September after starting the year outside the top 700.

The resurgence of Harding at the age of 32 has been remarkable and he could ride the crest of the wave to become the Mauritius Open champion – and the third South African winner of this title in the four years it has been staged.

Kurt Kitayama could not cut the mustard on the Web.com Tour, but had a little success in Asia this year, before winning a European Tour card at Q-School. He is inexperienced and is lacking a main-tour victory, so is the less appealing option of the front two.

That said, Kitayama does have a European Tour card in his pocket, which is his psychological edge over Harding. There is a lot on the line for Harding, who knows victory would hand him European Tour playing rights and shunt him close to the treasured top 50 of the world rankings.

Racing Post Sport followers will be hoping ante-post picks Perez and Sordet finish with a flourish, but if Harding exudes the same level of calm he has in his homeland and in Asia over the last seven months, the French pair may find the trophy out of reach. This would be the most prestigious title of Harding's career, though, so some tension should creep into his game.

Frenchmen should be swarming all over Harding come the finish, but the Cape Town man may have gained just enough confidence from recent successes to fall over the line in front. Punters with decent ante-post investments in the Frenchmen should certainly consider some cover Harding prior to round four.

Harding is also an appealing final-round twoballs wager against Kitayama. The final pairing are scheduled to tee off at 8.15am UK and Ireland time.

Outright recommendation
J Harding
2pts 6-4 Betway, BoyleSports

Twoballs recommendation
J Harding
2pts 10-11 Betfred

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