Steve Palmer's Spanish Open predictions and free golf betting tips

When to bet 

By 7.40am on Thursday

Where to watch the Spanish Open

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 1pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Spanish Open predictions

Jon Rahm
8pts 9-4 Coral, Ladbrokes

Marcus Helligkilde
1pt each-way 60-1 Betfair, Power

The DP World Tour follows a soggy Dunhill Links Championship with a fortnight in sunny Spain – the Open de Espana will be followed next week by the Andalucia Masters. Jon Rahm will headline this week's action, before making way for Wyndham Clark, Ryan Fox, Robert MacIntyre and others next week.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Jon Rahm 9-4

Barring injury or illness, it is difficult to see anyone defeating Jon Rahm over 72 holes of the Spanish Open, and serious punters will be examining odds of 9-4 with keen interest.

Rahm won by five shots on his Club de Campo debut in 2019, then by six shots last year, closing with a sublime Sunday 62. Tommy Fleetwood and Min Woo Lee were among Rahm's adversaries 12 months ago, but neither is in this week's line-up.

The weather-delayed Dunhill Links finally reached a conclusion late on Monday afternoon, meaning those heading from Scotland to Spain arrived later than planned in Madrid. Links golf in poor weather, with amateur partners in tow, is far from ideal preparation for parkland golf in sunshine.

Rahm has no such concerns, having enjoyed a week off after the Ryder Cup, and the local hero is full of beans after performing so well against the United States at the Marco Simone. Some of the best golf of the Ryder Cup came from Rahm, who went unbeaten through four matches, and fourth place in the BMW PGA at Wentworth last month suggested he would be a key player for Europe.

Rahm has played in 23 regulation DP World Tour events and won eight of them. He revels in being a big fish in small ponds, winning two Irish Opens, three DP World Tour Championships and three Spanish Opens. He has twice finished runner-up in the BMW PGA.

Rahm's hero is Seve Ballesteros, who has also won three Spanish Opens, so the motivation to break the record and claim a fourth national title is obvious.

The only time Rahm has failed to win at Club de Campo in his three starts was in 2021 – when he appeared to have mentally downed tools for the year. A gutbusting Tour Championship in which he lost a FedEx Cup duel with Patrick Cantlay was followed by a miserable Ryder Cup which saw Europe crushed 19-9 at Whistling Straits. Rahm's mojo was gone, but two years later, spirits are high.

The weather forecast is encouraging – four uninterrupted rounds appear certain – and the favourite seems worth a significant investment.

Next best bet

Marcus Helligkilde 60-1

Ever improving Dane Marcus Helligkilde may end up providing the biggest challenge to Rahm. Helligkilde has won three times on the Challenge Tour and the last of them came in Spain in the 2021 Challenge Tour Grand Final.

The 27-year-old won twice in Spain on the Nordic Golf League circuit and his record generally in the country is ultra-consistent. If Rahm badly underperforms, Helligkilde could be the man to take advantage for a DP World Tour breakthrough.

Helligkilde was runner-up in the Korea Championship in April, following up with fourth spot in the ISPS Handa World Invitational in August, then 13th in the European Masters. He set the early pace at Wentworth last month, finishing 25th, then got finished early at Kingsbarns on Dunhill Monday for 37th place.

Club de Campo course guide

Course Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Prize money $3.25m ($541,775 to the winner)
Length 7,112 yards
Par 71 – three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 144 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Jon Rahm (3), Justin Rose (37), Victor Perez (69), Pablo Larrazabal (76), Thriston Lawrence (89)
Course records - 72 holes 259 Jon Rahm (2023) 18 holes 60 Ivo Giner (2005 Madrid Open)

Course winners taking part Jon Rahm (twice), Rafa Cabrera Bello

When to bet By 7.40am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 1pm on Thursday

Time difference Spain is one hour ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week – Dunhill Links Championship 1 M Fitzpatrick (14-1), T2 M Armitage (300-1), R Fox (16-1), M Southgate (60-1), 5 S Soderberg (125-1), T6 N Colsaerts (500-1), M Pavon (150-1), S Valimaki (125-1), M Wallace (55-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview The Javier Arana designed Black Course at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid has hosted 14 European Tour events in the modern era – the Spanish Open in 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, 1996, 2019, 2021 and 2022, and the Madrid Open from 2001-2005, and the Madrid Masters in 2008. The average winning score in the last three Spanish Opens there has been 22 under par. The tree-lined, undulating track has small greens and some stunning views over the city of Madrid

Story of last year Jon Rahm romped to a six-shot victory, breaking the 72-hole scoring record at Club de Campo in the process

Weather forecast Sunny and calm for the vast majority of the event, temperatures peaking at 27C on Thursday. Sunday is expected to be the cloudiest and coldest day

Type of player suited to the challenge Club de Campo can be overwhelmed, with the par-fives there for the taking and some extremely short par-fours, so a hot putter and four low scores are probably going to be needed for success

Key attribute Touch

Spotlight insight 

The last four Spanish Opens were won by a Spaniard

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