Steve Palmer's Mauritius Open final-round golf betting tips and predictions

Where to watch the Mauritius Open

Sky Sports Golf, 7.30am Sunday

Best bets

Jayden Schaper to win the Mauritius Open
2pts each-way 12-1 general

Story so far

Louis Oosthuizen carded three eagles in a third-round 65 at La Reserve Golf Club to hit the top of the leaderboard in the Mauritius Open.

Oosthuizen, a best-price 13-2 favourite before the off, is no bigger than 8-13 with 18 holes to play in the low-grade DP World Tour event.

The South African, who won the weather-delayed Alfred Dunhill Championship in his homeland on Monday, is one shot ahead of his compatriot Jacques P. De Villiers in Mauritius.

Matthieu Pavon, who carded a nine at the par-four sixth hole in round two, missed the cut by three shots, while fellow Frenchman Antoine Rozner, first-round leader after a ten-under-par 62, has followed up with rounds of 74 and 73 to share 13th place heading into the denouement.

Mauritius Open leaderboard

-14 Louis Oosthuizen
-13 Jacques P. De Villiers
-11 Laurie Canter
-10 Jayden Schaper, Jaco Prinsloo
-9 Peter Moolman, Lyle Rowe
-8 Marcel Siem, Darren Fichardt, Dylan Naidoo, Paul Waring, Marcel Schneider
-7 Antoine Rozner, Louis de Jager, Daniel Brown

Best odds for the Mauritius Open

8-13 L Oosthuizen, 13-2 J De Villiers, 7 L Canter, 12 J Schaper, 33 J Prinsloo, 50 M Siem, 55 P Moolman, 66 P Waring, 80 A Rozner, 100 bar

Mauritius Open final-round predictions

Louis Oosthuizen said after winning the Alfred Dunhill on Monday that he was managing his arm tendon injury well – and the former Open champion has been good to his word. Despite a handicap which has occasionally affected him this week, class and confidence has been enough for the ten-time DP World Tour champion to lead a weak DP World Tour line-up.

Oosthuizen will tee off in the final twoball at noon local time (8am UK and Ireland) and bookmakers are clearly expecting a smooth ride for the general 8-13 chance.

The 12th hole on Saturday could prove pivotal to the tournament. Oosthuizen did well to find his ball after a wild drive into some wispy rough – and having a hack at it from that lie was a calculated gamble. The experienced 41-year-old managed to make good contact and went on to birdie the hole, seemingly able to overcome any predicament.

There are no guarantees the Oosthuizen train will stay on track for another 18 holes, though, and playing at odds-on holds no appeal. He is carrying an injury, he has already had a long week – with the Alfred Dunhill finishing late before he jetted to Mauritius as the headline act – and he is not the most reliable of closers.

Oosthuizen nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory at the 72nd hole of the Alfred Dunhill on Monday – slicing an ugly drive into water – and he clearly has some destructive shots in his game at the moment.

A better value alternative to the 8-13 market leader is arguably Jayden Schaper, who is tied for fourth place, four shots off the pace. Schaper loves this course and will probably be more comfortable hunting for his maiden DP World Tour title from just off the pace – rather than from the front.

Schaper has been in the thick of things throughout the new DPWT season, with form figures of 9-5-7 from the last three weeks. He led the South African Open the week before last, before finishing fifth, and his game has generally been in excellent order.

Schaper played in the pro-am this week with Peter Matkovich, who designed this week's venue with assistance from Oosthuizen, and Schaper has said how much he enjoys playing on Matkovich designs. Schaper's home course – the Ebotse Links – is a Matkovich design.

Antoine Rozner has probably left himself too much to do from seven shots behind Oosthuizen, so if the leader falters – which is entirely feasible – Schaper may be the man to take advantage. He has been in great nick and will expect to close his year with a low round.

A final twoball with Oosthuizen is a tough gig for world number 984 Jacques P. De Villiers, while Laurie Canter suffered late horrors in LIV Golf's version of a qualifying school last Sunday. Some late blunders meant he missed out on a LIV card for next season. Canter has done well to refocus this week, but he has too much history of Sunday failure to be considered at short odds in potentially tight shootouts like this one.

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