Steve Palmer's BMW PGA Championship predictions and free golf betting tips

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Steve Palmer's BMW PGA Championship predictions

Viktor Hovland
4pts each-way 7-1 Betfair, BoyleSports, Hills

Justin Rose
2pts each-way 33-1 Betfair, Power

Eddie Pepperell
1pt each-way 150-1 Betfair, BoyleSports

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The 12 members of the European Ryder Cup side have just returned from a brief scouting trip to the Marco Simone and all of them are set to tee off in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth – their final competitive action before facing America in Italy.

The dust has settled on Luke Donald's six wildcard selections and the 24 players featuring in the Ryder Cup are gearing up for combat. Team USA paid a similar visit to the Marco Simone at the weekend, with only Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth failing to attend. None of the American team are at Wentworth.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Viktor Hovland 7-1

The quality of golf that Viktor Hovland produced in the final two legs of the FedEx Cup playoffs was jaw-dropping and the ever-improving 25-year-old Norwegian should prove the man to beat in the BMW PGA Championship.

The BMW Championship in Illinois and the Tour Championship in Georgia saw Hovland get to a level which left the other members of the elite green with envy. In the second half of the year, nobody else has got close to the almost perfect playoffs performance of Hovland.

A closing 61 at Olympia Fields in the BMW was one of the finest rounds in PGA Tour history, then he carded 68, 64, 66, 63 to romp to a five-shot Tour Championship triumph. A decent handicap mark obviously helped at East Lake, but nobody outscored Hovland over 72 holes. He was awesome, banking a fortune with ease.

Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm would probably privately admit that Hovland should be clear BMW PGA favourite given that sizzling FedEx form, but all three players are priced around the same mark. Given how well Wentworth sets up for Hovland – this flusher loves a stiff tee-to-green test – there is no hesitation in taking 7-1 about a third consecutive tournament victory.

Hovland was 11th on his BMW PGA debut in 2019 when he was ranked outside the world's top 100 going into the event, then last year he had a golden winning chance before a few loose drives cost him dear. Given the control he has been exhibiting of late, winning the Memorial in June before his playoffs heroics, there is no reason to expect any loose ball-striking in Surrey this week.

The Tour Championship finished on August 27, so Hovland had a fortnight to count his money and freshen up for BMW PGA and Ryder Cup business. A first Wentworth title may await on Sunday.

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Next best bet

Justin Rose 33-1

Captain Donald handed Justin Rose a wildcard pick – a decision which is easy to justify. Rose is a vastly experienced Ryder Cup stalwart who still has bundles to offer – a Major champion who is well liked and respected by everyone in the European camp. On a team with four rookies, Rose will be the oldest member of the side and a father figure to the youngsters.

Rose may head into that Ryder Cup role off the back of an overdue Wentworth success. This course is his practice base – he lives locally – and he has been threatening to win the PGA for years. He was runner-up in 2007 and 2012, and has enjoyed the switch to a September event, finishing eighth in 2019 and sixth in 2021.

Last year Rose entered the week with back problems and had to withdraw, but this time he should be in the thick of things throughout. Victory on the PGA Tour at Pebble Beach in February was followed by sixth place at Sawgrass, ninth in the US PGA, fourth in the British Masters, then a bright FedEx Cup playoffs.

The 43-year-old opened with a 76 in the FedEx St Jude Championship, but came roaring back, carding a third-round 61 on his way to 20th place, following up with 22nd spot in the BMW Championship.

Other selection

Eddie Pepperell 150-1

Seven of the last 14 BMW PGAs have been won by an Englishman, with six of them from southern England. Rose fits the bill, as does Eddie Pepperell, who made a name for himself at Wentworth in 2013. Ranked 333rd in the world, making his PGA debut, Pepperell finished sixth, only two shots shy of the playoff.

Pepperell was sixth again in the 2020 BMW PGA. He is a two-time DPWT champion – his last victory coming in Surrey in the 2018 British Masters at Walton Heath – and he has excelled in elite company with sixth spot in the 2018 Open and third place in the 2019 Players Championship.

Pepperell took some time off in the spring, pacing his season, and the plan appears to be paying off. Third place in the World Invitational last month was followed by eighth in the European Masters. A missed cut by a shot in Ireland last week could prove a blessing in disguise, leaving more time to prepare at a Wentworth track we know he can handle.

Wentworth course guide

Course West Course, Wentworth Club, Virginia Water, Surrey
Prize money $9m ($1.5m to the winner)
Length 7,267 yards
Par 72 – four par-fives; ten par-fours; four par-threes
Field 144
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Rory McIlroy (2), Jon Rahm (3), Viktor Hovland (4), Matt Fitzpatrick (8), Tyrrell Hatton (13)
Course records - 72 holes 267 Byeong Hun An (2015) 18 holes 62 Robert Karlsson (2010), Thomas Bjorn (2014), Alex Noren (2017)

Course winners taking part (strokeplay) David Howell, Luke Donald (twice), Rory McIlroy, Francesco Molinari, Danny Willett, Tyrrell Hatton, Billy Horschel, Shane Lowry

When to bet By 6.45am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 8.30am on ThursdayLive on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 8.30am on Thursday

Last week – Irish Open 1 V Norrman (45-1), 2 H Long (350-1), T3 G Forrest (125-1), R Fox (40-1), S Lowry (20-1), T Lawrence (125-1), T7 S Sharma (250-1), M W Lee (20-1), N Bachem (350-1), R Hoshino (200-1), C Syme (90-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview The legendary Harry Colt-designed West Course at Wentworth has been the host venue for the PGA Championship since 1984 and also staged the World Match Play from 1964 to 2007. In 2019, the event moved from its usual May slot to September. The course has been extensively remodelled over recent years (a project started in 2005) by long-time Wentworth member and seven-times Match Play champ Ernie Els. Prior to the 2017 edition, every green was stripped of its turf and re-seeded with creeping bentgrass. All the putting surfaces had a sub-air system installed to make them firmer and faster. Tall trees line the fairways, many of which are doglegs, so it is a demanding driving course. The layout closes with two par-fives – the 610-yard 17th and the 523-yard 18th, a classic risk-reward hole featuring a greenside water hazard

Story of last year Shane Lowry and Rory McIlroy provided a thrilling finale, with Lowry edging his friend by a shot

Weather forecast Pleasant, with sunny intervals, for the vast majority of the event, but some drizzle is possible at the weekend. Hardly any breeze throughout, with temperatures peaking at 23C

Type of player suited to the challenge Strong driving is demanded to find the tree-lined fairways. Long-game accuracy combined with short-game wizardry is typically the ticket to success at Wentworth

Key attribute Accuracy

Spotlight insight 

Seven of the last 14 BMW PGAs have been won by an Englishman

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