Steve Palmer's Australian PGA and Joburg Open final-round golf betting tips and predictions

Where to watch the Joburg Open

Sky Sports Main Event and Golf, 9am Sunday

Best bets

Min Woo Lee to win Australian PGA Championship (1-4) and Thriston Lawrence to win Joburg Open 
(8-13)
3pts double bet365, BoyleSports, Hills

Thriston Lawrence and Dean Burmester dual forecast
3pts 20-23 bet365 

Curtis Luck to win Australian PGA Championship without Min Woo Lee
1pt 14-5 BoyleSports

Story so far

Thriston Lawrence leads the Joburg Open by three shots going into the final round at Houghton Golf Club, shortening to a best-price 8-13 with 18 holes to play.

Lawrence, 20-1 at the start of the week, took control of the tournament with a Thursday 62, following up with rounds of 66 and 67 to reach 15 under par.

South Africans fill the first six places on the leaderboard, with Dean Burmester alone in second spot. Burmester was 11-1 pre-tournament favourite.

Lawrence and Burmester tee off in the final twoball at 9.55am UK and Ireland time on Sunday. A sunny, hot and calm afternoon is forecast.

Joburg Open leaderboard

-15 Thriston Lawrence
-12 Dean Burmester
-11 Nikhil Rama, Jacques Kruyswijk
-10 Zander Lombard

Best odds for the Joburg Open

8-13 T Lawrence, 11-4 D Burmester, 14 J Kruyswijk, 20 Z Lombard, 35 N Rama, 100 bar

Joburg Open final-round predictions

Thriston Lawrence, Racing Post Sport's pre-tournament 18-1 headline recommendation, has given himself a golden chance of a fifth DP World Tour victory.

Lawrence got off the mark in the Joburg Open two years ago, following up with victories in the European Masters, the South African Open and the BMW International Open. He turns 27 next month and looks likely to do so with five DP World Tour titles under his belt.

Lawrence has not done a lot wrong this week, but has responded well on the rare occasions when he has dropped a shot. A bogey-free, two-under-par back-nine on Saturday sent the burly local to the clubhouse in high spirits.

Lawrence backers on at healthy pre-tournament prices may want to consider a cover shot on Dean Burmester, who is lurking over the leader's shoulder in the final twoball. An investment at 11-4 on Burmester will appeal to cautious punters seeking to shore up their Lawrence position. It was would be a shock should anyone other than Lawrence and Burmester lift the trophy aloft.

Lawrence has been full of controlled aggression all week – and is putting consistently well – while power-packed Burmester has bagged 17 birdies. Lawrence knows if he can repel his playing partner, a second Joburg Open triumph is on the cards.

Burmester has never been that impressive in contention – two DP World Tour titles is a poor return for a 34-year-old with so much ability – but on home turf the LIV Golf defector is obviously extremely dangerous.

Backing Burmester is a perfectly acceptable tactic for punters on Lawrence at juicy odds, but those in the betting community who are yet to get involved may prefer an alternative option. Doubling Lawrence with the leader of the other DPWT event taking place this week – Min Woo Lee in the Australian PGA Championship – boosts the odds to more than even-money when getting 8-13 Lawrence and 1-4 Lee.

An abysmal performance from Cameron Smith in the Australian PGA quickly left the way clear for Lee to dominate. This incredible talent has raced to 17 under par through 54 holes and, like Lawrence, has a three-shot lead going into the final round.

Lee, who tees off at 12.54am UK and Ireland time (early hours of Sunday morning), should convert this chance, with perhaps his fellow Perth man, Curtis Luck, taking runner-up honours. Luck is another youngster with plenty of potential.

Three shots should also be enough for Lawrence to deal with Burmester. Jacques Kruyswijk has a terrible temperament – playing every shot as if it's a life and death situation – while Nikhil Rama is massively out of his depth. The double pays more than evens, while the dual-forecast markets also catch the eye in both events. The Lawrence-Burmester dual forecast is available at a shade of odds-on, while Min Woo Lee and Luck is a 2-1 chance with bet365. Luck at 14-5 in the betting without Lee market is better value.

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