Steve Palmer's Alfred Dunhill Championship predictions & free golf betting tips + a £40 free bet

When to bet on the Alfred Dunhill Championship

By 4.20am on Thursday

It’s also worth noting that Paddy Power are offering a £40 free bet that you can grab here ahead of the event.

Where can I watch the Alfred Dunhill Championship

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 10am Thursday

Steve Palmer's Alfred Dunhill Championship predictions

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
5pts each-way 14-1 general

Jayden Schaper
3pts each-way 30-1 bet365

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You can bet on the Alfred Dunhill Championship here and get £40 in golf free bets from Paddy Power

Steve Palmer's Alfred Dunhill Championship preview

Dean Burmester is seeking to end his year with a spectacular hat-trick of titles in his homeland – looking to follow his Joburg Open and South African Open triumphs with further glory in the Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek.

Burmester suffered with illness early in the South African Open last week, vomiting on the course during Friday's round, overcoming dizziness to make the cut by a shot. Feeling better at the weekend, rounds of 65 and 68 delivered a three-shot success.

Confidence is coursing through the veins of the emphatic Alfred Dunhill favourite, but Leopard Creek might stop him in his tracks. He has missed the cut in seven of his ten starts in the Alfred Dunhill. Last week's layout, Blair Atholl, suits this powerhouse much more than the firm, fast, tight terrain of Leopard Creek.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 14-1

Burmester must be respected given his form and self-belief, but the bigger odds about Christiaan Bezuidenhout are much preferred this week. Bezuidenhout has a game which is tailor-made for the modern Leopard Creek.

The course changed a lot in 2017. Previously, it favoured long, aggressive drivers, with Charl Schwartzel once carding a 24-under-par total, but a switch to a more fast-running grass six years ago, allied to renovations which brought fairway bunkers more into play, has meant a tougher, firmer, faster Leopard Creek from 2018 onwards.

Accuracy from tee to green is demanded and players need to excel around slippery dancefloors – an assignment which Bezuidenhout relishes. The 29-year-old, who has built a career on laserlike irons and a razor-sharp short-game, won the Alfred Dunhill by four shots in 2020. He knows he is well equipped to conquer the Creek.

Bezuidenhout, a PGA Tour regular who finished sixth in the Sanderson Farms Championship in October, loves his trips home. In his last ten tournaments in South Africa, he can boast form figures of 1-15-1-1-6-5-3-26-9-17 – an average finishing position of 8.4.

Two ideal warm-up spins have worked Bezuidenhout into shape for Leopard Creek. Ninth place in the Joburg Open carrying a cold putter was followed by 17th spot in the South African Open on a long course which he was playing in competition for the first time. He signed off on Sunday with a birdie at the 17th and an eagle at the 18th, heading to a more suitable mission in good heart.

Bezuidenhout got married in 2021, made his Presidents Cup debut last year and became a father just over a month ago. Little John Bezuidenhout may have an Alfred Dunhill Championship trophy to play with over Christmas.

Next best bet

Jayden Schaper 30-1

Rounds of 69, 67 and 67 put Jayden Schaper in with a golden chance of victory in the 2020 Alfred Dunhill, but a closing 75 meant a second-place finish behind Bezuidenhout. Schaper was 19 years of age and outside the world's top 800 going into that bold title tilt. Three years later, he could be ready to take any opportunity which comes his way.

Schaper has been getting more experience of contending for silverware, including last Sunday in the South African Open. Blair Atholl is not as suitable as Leopard Creek for Schaper, though, and having Burmester breathing down his neck meant for maximum pressure. Schaper has more hope of turning over the favourite at the Creek.

Ninth place in the Joburg Open was followed by fifth spot at Blair Atholl and that progression can continue this week. Schaper was the best amateur in South Africa when he turned pro and should take his career to the next level soon enough.

Course guide for the Alfred Dunhill Championship

• Course Leopard Creek Country Club, Malelane, South Africa
• Prize money €1.5m (€250,000 to the winner)
• Length 7,249 yards
• Par 72 – four par-fives, ten par-fours, four par-threes
• Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Dean Burmester (77), Thriston Lawrence (84), Erik van Rooyen (87), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (114), Ewen Ferguson (122)

• Course records - 72 holes 264 Charl Schwartzel (2012) 18 holes 61 Thomas Aiken (2008)
• Course winners taking part Darren Fichardt (2001 SA Tour Championship), Hennie Otto (2003 SA Tour Championship), Charl Schwartzel (four times), Branden Grace, Brandon Stone, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Ockie Strydom
• When to bet By 4.20am on Thursday
  

• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 10am Thursday
  
• Time difference South Africa is two hours ahead of the UK and Ireland
  
• Last week – South African Open 1 D Burmester (7-1), T2 R Van Velzen (300-1), Renato Paratore (70-1), Jesper Svensson (100-1), T5 J Schaper (28-1), L De Jager (35-1), M Manassero (250-1), F Lacroix (45-1), A Del Rey (150-1)
  
• Course type Parkland
  
• Course overview This Gary Player designed layout opened in 1996 and hosted the Tour Championship on the South African circuit from 2001 to 2004. The more prestigious Alfred Dunhill moved to Leopard Creek for the 2005 season (December, 2004) and has remained there ever since. There was no Alfred Dunhill in 2017 as the course was undergoing extensive improvements. Scoring has been tougher since the changes. There was no Alfred Dunhill in 2021 due to Covid. The course is located on the southern edge of Kruger National Park, with wild animals usually in close attendance. Two long par-fours approaching the turn (the eighth and ninth) provide the greatest challenge. The 311-yard par-four sixth is tempting to big-hitters. The course has hosted the African Amateur from 2016 to 2020, last year and this year
  
• Story of last year Ockie Strydom defeated Adrian Otaegui by two shots to become a DP World Tour champion
  
• Weather forecast A couple of morning showers on Thursday should be replaced by warm sunshine for the vast majority of the event, with a storm threat for Sunday. Windless skies throughout
  
• Type of player suited to the challenge Powerful sorts traditionally thrived on this track, but the changes made it firmer and faster, with dry, fast greens, lending itself to more controlled operators
  
• Key attribute Accuracy

Steve Palmer's Alfred Dunhill Championship key stat

Charl Schwartzel has won three of the last nine Alfred Dunhills

Grab a £40 Paddy Power free bet on the 2023 Alfred Dunhill Championship

We’ve already mentioned that Paddy Power are offering a £40 free bet to place on all of the golf action at the event.

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Paddy Power golf Alfred Dunhill Championship betting sign-up offer: terms and conditions

It's worth taking a few minutes to read through the terms and conditions associated with the new golf betting signup offer before signing up. Doing so will help you get a better grasp of the details of the Alfred Dunhill Championship free bets and what's expected of you as a new customer.

• New UK & ROI customers only
• Minimum deposit £10 bet at minimum odds of 1-2 to qualify 
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• SMS verification required
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