GAA predictions and Gaelic football betting tips: Kerry to end Dublin hoodoo

Free GAA football tips, best bets and match previews for this weekend's All-Ireland semi-finals and Tailteann Cup final

Best bets

Kerry -1
5pts 11-10 general

Kerry to win by five points or more
2pts 3-1 Paddy Power

Over Kerry 1.5 goals
2pts 6-4 Boylesports

Galway
2pts 13-10 Boylesports

Westmeath
2pts 13-8 Betfair, Paddy Power

Already advised

Kerry to win All-Ireland
4pts 11-8 general

Kerry and Galway to meet in final
2pts 6-1 Paddy Power

Westmeath to win Tailteann Cup
1pt 6-1 general

Dublin v Kerry

Sky Sports Arena & RTE2, 3.30pm Sunday

How can Dublin be as big as 6-4? That is the argument everyone has been hearing over the last week but the real issue is do the Dubs deserve to be bigger judging by what we have seen from them over the last two years?

This is a different Dublin side from the one who celebrated a sixth All-Ireland title in a row in 2020. They were beaten fair and square by Mayo in last year's semi-final and have already been relegated from Division 1 of the league in 2022 having won just two of their seven games.

They waltzed through Leinster, thanks in no small part to the brilliance of Con O'Callaghan, but their All-Ireland quarter-final victory over a poor Cork side was workmanlike at best and a lack of pace up front was a concern.

There are injury doubts hanging over O'Callaghan and James McCarthy, the two who inject pace into every attack. Without them, Kerry could run riot. Even if they play, Kerry can still win comfortably.

There were seven points between the sides when they met in round two of the league back in February and the gap has not closed much in the interim. The Kingdom were a better side in February and they still are.

The calf problem which threatened to end David Clifford's quarter-final remains a concern for Kerry. He is not 100 per cent, but an 80 per cent Clifford will do fine. He is the most gifted man in the game at the moment.

Paul Geaney's form is huge. He looked better than ever in the win over Mayo - sharp, powerful and lively. He never stopped moving and trying to make things happen. With Sean O'Shea, Stephen O'Brien and Paudie Clifford all looking sharp too, it is hard to see this Dublin defence holding firm.

There were some suggestions that Kerry were poor in their quarter-final, but although they were pushed by Mayo for 50 minutes, they then eased clear. They won by eight and only conceded 0-13. Indeed, they have yet to concede a goal in the championship.

Jack O'Connor has worked wonders with the rearguard unit and he will be well aware of the damage Dublin will do if they are allowed space in front of their full-forward line. Do not expect them to be exposed in that department.

Another reason Kerry should be shorter is their bench. They have a much deeper panel than Dublin and the prospect of Paul Murphy entering the fray at a crucial stage could add another dimension to the Kingdom.

The advice is to get on Kerry to defy a one-point handicap at odds against, and also have a nibble on them at 3-1 to win by five points or more. The other bet that appeals on the match coupon is for two or more Kerry goals. They have been creating a whole host of glorious goal chances this year without taking them and some day the floodgates will open.

Kerry have suffered so much heartache at the hands of the Dubs in the last decade but this looks the perfect occasion to start dishing out some revenge.

Derry v Galway

Sky Sports Arena & RTE2, 5.30pm Saturday

Derry have undoubtedly been the story of 2022 but the fairytale could come to an abrupt end at the semi-final stage.

Their ability to get goals has been one of the main ingredients in a few tasty dishes of late and they got five in their 14-point victory over Clare in the All-Ireland quarter final. But opening up Galway won't be so easy.

Galway have really impressed this summer. They have dominated Mayo, Roscommon and Armagh only for late lapses in concentration to take the polished look off the scoreboard. They were more emphatic winners against those three sides than the final scorelines suggested.

Galway were seven points up entering injury-time against Armagh, with an extra man, but couldn't hold on and conceded two sloppy goals, one a poor goalkeeping error.

If each of their last championship outings had ended in the 68th minute, Galway would undoubtedly be favourites for this semi-final. They look to have achieved more than Derry have in getting here.

Much will depend on curbing the influence of Conor Glass in the midfield battlezone, but Galway have enough power and height to stop him dominating the air and they will be wise to his forward surges.

It will come down to forwards and Galway are better equipped in that department. They have Damien Comer, Shane Walsh and Robert Finnerty and even Cilliam McDaid has been impressive of late.

Cavan v Westmeath

RTE2, 3pm Saturday

The 2020 Ulster champions Cavan are odds-on to win the inaugural Tailteann Cup but an upset could be on the cards as Westmeath's semi-final success was far more impressive.

It took the Breffni boys an age to overcome Sligo and they had only three points to spare at the death, whereas Westmeath were comfortable from start to finish in their nine-point demolition of Leinster rivals Offaly, 3-22 to 1-16.

Westmeath are peaking at the right time and John Heslin continues to excel. He got eight points in the win over Offaly, five from play, and will pose Cavan all sorts of problems in Croke Park.

Westmeath are not a one-man team, though, and they have scoring power elsewhere. Lorcan Dolan got 2-1 in the Offaly victory and ten players in all contributed on the scoreboard.

Cavan's Division 4 league final win wasn't the most impressive and Westmeath look the value.

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