World champions Germany can begin with a win

Group F
BBC1, 4pm Sunday

Expect Germany to shrug off pre-tournament wobbles, come at Mexico hard and kick off the defence of their world crown with a victory at the Luzhniki Stadium.

Joachim Low’s reigning champions are 4-7 to take care of El Tri in Moscow. A better bet for punters who like the Germans might be Die Mannschaft to win in a game featuring under 3.5 goals.

A second-string Germany thrashed Mexico 4-1 when they last met, 12 months ago in the Confederations Cup.

But their build-up to these finals has been far from ideal and if Mexico apply themselves as Egypt did against Uruguay then the favourites could find it hard to break them down.

Mexico are a bright, lively side with players who like time on the ball. That, however, might be something they don’t get against the Germans, for whom Sami Khedira and Toni Kroos will be huge players in disrupting what Mexico want to do and then launching raids.

Low's men will also look to defend from the front and that may well upset Mexico as they seek to play out from the back.

Germany’s indifferent preparations have been well-chronicled – they went five matches in a row without a win before sneaking past Saudi Arabia 2-1 last weekend.

But when you pick the likes of France, Spain and Brazil as World Cup dress rehearsals, wins are going to be hard to come by, and they drew with two of those opponents.

The underwhelming efforts against Austria and Saudi Arabia were clearly a source of some concern but shouldn’t be overrated.

However, Mesut Ozil has been injured, Thomas Muller is more peripheral these days and these are the first major finals for Timo Werner, Marco Reus, Leon Goretzka and Julian Brandt.

Germany may be famed for their meticulousness but there is no guarantee how any of these players will fare in the spotlight.

It might need a better side than El Tri to test them and the North Americans aren’t without issues.

Boss Juan Carlos Osorio has been unpopular for a couple of years and he shares something in common with Ilkay Gundogan – they both get booed by their own supporters.

Since qualifying Mexico have played a couple of top-ten countries, drawing 3-3 with Belgium and beating Poland 1-0.

Raphael Honigstein on Germany v Mexico

But those games were in November and since the turn of the year they’ve produced a handful of mixed efforts, with two wins, two losses and just four goals scored.

They were roundly jeered after scraping past Scotland 1-0 and their last six internationals have yielded just eight goals.

They are vastly experienced at the back to the extent that three members of their likely back five – keeper Guillermo Ochoa and defenders Miguel Layun and Hector Moreno – played in the 0-0 draw they managed against hosts Brazil in the group stage four years ago.

That followed a 1-0 win against Cameroon and it’s worth noting that they haven’t lost any of their last five World Cup openers.

Recommendation
Germany & under 3.5 goals
1pt 5-4 BoyleSports, Coral, Ladbrokes

Bet on this game at Soccerbase.com

The lowdown

Germany
Team news
Mesut Ozil has recovered from a knee injury that saw him miss the friendly with Saudi Arabia. Julian Draxler is expected to get the nod in left midfield ahead of Marco Reus.

Strengths
A goal threat from all areas. Hugely experienced through the central areas in midfield, defence and in goal.

Weaknesses
A poor preparation might have left its mark.

Key man
Timo Werner boasts an excellent record in a short international career and needs to lead the line with authority.

Mexico
Team news
Defender Diego Reyes had to leave the squad after suffering a hamstring injury. He has been replaced by Erick Gutierrez.

Strengths
A tidy, passing team. They are hugely experienced in major finals.

Weaknesses
They can be overrun by sides who press them. The goals have dried up for their array of frontmen.

Key man
Hector Herrera is the fulcrum who knits El Tri together and he’ll have to dominate if Mexico are to stay in the game.

Key stat
Germany are unbeaten in 28 World Cup ties and qualifiers, dating back to July 2010.

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