James Rodriguez crucial to Colombia’s chances

It goes without saying that the fitness of James Rodriguez is crucial to Colombia’s chances of beating England on Tuesday.

Rodriguez was the World Cup’s top goalscorer and arguably its best player four years ago, and has enjoyed a fine campaign at Bayern Munich. Jose Pekerman’s system has long been based around his inventive number ten, and Colombia are a far less impressive side without him.

There’s a specific tactical reason, though, why England could do without Rodriguez starting.

If Pekerman uses him from the outset, Colombia’s starting 11 will feature two clever playmakers in space between the lines, with Rodriguez likely to start from the left, and the diminutive, elusive Juan Quintero playing centrally.

This is the zone England are most vulnerable in, with the format of the midfield meaning Jordan Henderson is often left on his own, with Dele Alli and Jesse Lingard pushing forward into attacking positions. If Henderson is isolated against both Rodriguez and Quintero, Colombia will cause serious problems.

If Rodriguez isn’t fit, Pekerman will probably turn to Luis Muriel instead. He’s capable of playing either as a left-winger or a second striker, and his switch from the former to the latter role against Senegal was crucial in Colombia piling on the pressure that led to their crucial winner.

But Muriel is a more straightforward player, based around speed and energy. Kyle Walker, you suspect, will be comfortable against him.

It’s the double-playmaker threat that England must be most wary of, particularly as this is the zone where they have struggled so often over the years, partly because of the historic resistance to using a holding midfielder to mark the opposition number ten. Now England have a player in that mould in Henderson, but Gareth Southgate can’t afford to leave him isolated.

Elsewhere, Colombia’s main goalscoring threat will be Radamel Falcao, who has bounced back from his dreadful spell in the Premier League and has rediscovered his old form.

He’s actually a more complete player these days, dropping deeper to link play, and in this tournament he’s proved adept at winning free-kicks.

Mark Langdon's Colombia v England match preview

Spotlight on England

Colombia have already scored three goals from set-pieces: two Yerry Mina headers, and a Quintero free-kick cleverly struck under the wall against Japan. With England’s good set-piece record, dead-ball situations could be crucial.

Against Senegal, Colombia used a peculiar format down their right flank, with full-back Santiago Arias pushing into central midfield positions and winger Juan Cuadrado dropping back to right-back to receive the ball in space.

That didn’t work and Colombia often conceded possession cheaply. The centre-back partnership of Mina and Davinson Sanchez boasts tremendous pace, but Colombia depend upon speed far too often to get themselves out of trouble.

If England break quickly after winning possession in midfield zones, they will cause serious problems, but Lingard and Alli might have to play more cautiously than in previous games, ensuring Henderson is nullified.

Functional Sweden are being underrated

Switzerland versus Sweden is hardly the most exciting fixture in the second round stage, and could prove a slow-burning contest. Both teams are based around defensive organisation rather than technical play, and there won’t be a single top-class centre-forward on the pitch.

Sweden, though, are perhaps the most underrated side left in this competition. They unashamedly use classic Scandinavian tactics: two banks of four, and long balls into attack, but their organisation is genuinely fantastic.

They do the basics effectively: boxing sides in at throw-ins, getting men up in support of their strikers when playing long balls, and winning the second ball after set-pieces to pile on the pressure.

Their results so far have been impressive. Their 3-0 win over Mexico amongst the most convincing victories of the tournament, but has perhaps gone under the radar with everyone focusing upon Germany’s defeat to South Korea in the other group game.

Janne Andersson’s side certainly won’t play thrilling football. But they’re more disciplined and organised than the Swiss, will relish their status as underdogs and might just spring a surprise.

Read Racing Post Sport and racingpost.com/sport every day for the best World Cup betting coverage

Today's top sports betting stories

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips for the World Cup

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport