Three Premier League teams who stats suggest are about to improve

Talent scout and record producer Ralph Peer said: “Success is the art of being where lightning is going to strike.” Getting struck by lightning can kill you, but we know what he meant.

Where, figuratively speaking, will lightning strike during the rest of the Premier League season? It could land anywhere. We can only suggest places that might be more likely than others. I suggest Everton, Southampton and Watford.

I think they could get better results in the second half of the season than they did in the first. And this is why.

Over the first half of the season, I feel, they played as well as they are paid to, though others presumably do not. Watford sacked two managers, Javi Gracia and Quique Sanchez Flores. Everton fired one, Marco Silva. Southampton often were reported to be on the verge of dismissing Ralph Hasenhuttl. He survives, as I write at least.

I think that Everton, Southampton and Watford played as well as their owners could reasonably have expected, which is the level implied by the payroll. But I do not think their play got as many points as it deserved.

I studied stats that can give an indication of what a team deserved, in particular shots and expected goals.

Expected goals ideas are derived from shots data. They incorporate the position as well as the number of attempts. Given this number of attempts from those positions, how many goals typically would a team score? Expected-goals stats are an attempt to answer that question. As the answer is to some extent subjective it can vary. So I examined more than one.

Both expected-goals stats and shots stats suggest that Everton, Southampton and Watford deserved better rewards than they got. Watford could have scored more goals, Everton could have conceded fewer, Southampton could have scored more and conceded fewer.

My best estimate is that if they had got what they deserved Everton might have 24 points, Southampton 22 and Watford 18. These totals are close to what I believe the owners are paying for. Everton could be eighth, Southampton 11th and Watford 16th.

Instead Everton are 16th with 18 points, Southampton 18th with 15 points, Watford 20th and last with nine points. What is done is done. What about the rest of the season, though? If they play as well as they have up until now – a reasonable anticipation, given that they have performed at the level they are paid to – and now they get the rewards their play merits, Everton could finish with 47 points, Southampton with 39 and Watford with 31.

We can form the same impression in another way. If you study the relationship between points won by teams in different parts of previous seasons you will find that those with the same numbers as Everton, Southampton and Watford after 17 games typically finished with 47, 39 and 31 points.

I would project 47 points for Everton irrespective of who succeeds Silva as manager.

In one game anything can happen. A team can get what they deserve, or more or less. I collected a range of expected-goals stats from the last two-and-a-half Premier League seasons. Then I picked out games that were not drawn – games that one team won and the other team lost.

Over 70 per cent of winners scored more than their expected number of goals. Over 70 per cent of losers scored fewer than their expected number of goals. In just over half of all games that were not drawn both things happened: the winners scored more than their expected number of goals and the losers scored fewer.

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola has said: “I have plans. Sometimes they work and we don’t win. Sometimes they are a disaster and we do.”

Over 17 games usually good luck in some games will be more or less cancelled out by bad luck in others. Most teams end up with something close to what they deserved. But for some good or bad luck endures.

This season, I believe, Everton, Southampton and Watford have fewer points than they deserve. Crystal Palace and Newcastle might have more.

Performance-indicative stats suggest that a fair return might have been 15 points for Palace and 12 for Newcastle. As it is, Palace have 23 points and Newcastle 22. But what they have is close to what I believe the owners are paying for. In other words, the owners could not reasonably have asked for more points, though they could reasonably have asked for better performances. Normally owners do not care about the second if they are getting the first.

Most likely, in the second half of the season Palace’s and Newcastle’s stats will improve, though as they rise results could drop to meet them. I am less pessimistic about the second half of the season for Palace and Newcastle than I am optimistic for Everton, Southampton and Watford.

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