FA Cup outright winner predictions: Ten Hag's trophy winning habit may continue

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for the 2022-23 FA Cup.

When to bet

Third-round ties commence at 8pm on Friday.

Best bets

Manchester United
1pt 10-1 general

Fulham
0.5pts each-way 100-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

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FA Cup outright preview

Erik ten Hag led Ajax to a league and cup double in his first full season with the Dutch side and he has every chance of steering Manchester United to FA Cup glory.

The Dutchman took on a huge challenge last summer but United are on course for a top-four finish and there are trophy-winning opportunities to come with the Red Devils 10-1 and 8-1 for FA Cup and Europa League success.

United have become accustomed to living in the shadow of rivals Manchester City, who have won four Premier League titles, four League Cups and one FA Cup in the last five seasons.

But City have only featured in one FA Cup final over the last nine seasons – beating Watford 6-0 in 2019 – and their poor record limits their appeal as 7-2 favourites.

The Citizens have often under-performed in FA Cup fixtures and face a tough third-round opener at home to Chelsea, who have featured in five of the last six FA Cup finals.

Chelsea have generally operated with a deep squad and that has helped them in the early rounds of the FA Cup when fringe players tend to be given opportunities.

The draw could not have been any tougher for the Blues but they are not without hope against City and, in terms of outright selections, the sensible call is to swerve both teams.

Arsenal are the competition's most successful team with 14 FA Cup victories and should not have too many problems coming through Monday's third round trip to League One Oxford.

However, the Gunners have put themselves into a fantastic position in the Premier League and will be far more concerned with challenging for the title than forging a path to Wembley.

The north London side bowed out in the third round last season after a much-changed side were beaten 1-0 at Nottingham Forest.

And Arsenal's fringe players failed to sparkle in this season's EFL Cup when suffering a 3-1 third-round loss at home to Brighton.

There appears to be a sizeable drop-off in ability when comparing Arsenal's first 11 to their shadow squad and that lack of depth may prove costly at a later stage of the competition.

Liverpool pulled off an EFL Cup and FA Cup double last season, but seem less well equipped for domestic knockout success in 2022-23.

Sadio Mane's sale has removed a key plank of their attack and Liverpool's main focus is on maintaining their Champions League challenge and pushing to get back into the Premier League top four.

Tottenham and Newcastle are also likely to be distracted by their battles for Champions League qualification.

Spurs have not won a trophy of any type since their League Cup success in 2008, while Newcastle have not landed a domestic knockout trophy since the last of their six FA Cup triumphs in 1955.

Of the Premier League big guns, United may be the hungriest for FA Cup glory.

Ten Hag has selected strong teams for the EFL Cup third and fourth round successes at home to Aston Villa and Burnley and seems unlikely to go any weaker for the FA Cup third-round clash at home to Everton.

Ten Hag got a taste for winning trophies with Ajax and success in the FA Cup would be the perfect way of signing off his first season at Old Trafford.

For a big-priced each-way contender, Fulham make plenty of appeal at 100-1.

Having come up from the Championship last summer the Cottagers' first priority is to stay in the Premier League, and they are sitting pretty with 28 points from 18 games.

Marco Silva's side won all three of their fixtures since the Premier League's restart and there seems no reason why they shouldn't have a crack at FA Cup glory, starting with Saturday's trip to Hull.

Fulham have not reached an FA Cup final since losing 1-0 to West Ham in 1975 but they are not without a chance this season.

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