Real Madrid mix quality with good fortune to knock out Champions League big guns

As 13-time Champions League winners, Real Madrid know better than most that you need a bit of luck to succeed in knockout competitions and the Spanish champions will be hoping they haven't used up all of their good fortune on their run to this season's final against Liverpool.

Real have been second-best for long periods in each of their three knockout ties, trailing with 15 minutes to go in regulation time in all of them, but have delivered some devastating bursts to come out on top, leading many observers to suggest they are destined for a 14th European crown at the Stade de France in Paris.

While Los Blancos may have pushed their luck at times, it has to be recognised that they faced an exceptionally tough route to the final as opponents Paris St-Germain (3-1), Chelsea (8-1) and Manchester City (4-1) were the top three in the ante-post market before this season's group stage.

The accompanying graphs show the timeline for each of Real's knockout ties. Each point represents a shot for either side and the size of the bar reflects the quality of the chance, according to Futmob's expected-goals model.

In the first leg against PSG, Carlo Ancelotti adopted a conservative approach, presumably concerned about the pace of Kylian Mbappe on the counter. It wasn't particularly effective as Real allowed 21 shots and failed to record an attempt on target themselves.

Despite that, wasteful finishing from the Parisians – notably Lionel Messi's missed penalty – meant Real trailed only 1-0 thanks to Mbappe's stoppage-time winner.

The France forward made it 2-0 on aggregate and had two further efforts disallowed for offside at the Bernabeu, where the home side traded as big as 14-1 in-play with bet365 to overcome the deficit and qualify for the last eight.

PSG appeared to be on top but handed Madrid a lifeline when goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma gave the ball away in his own box, allowing Karim Benzema to score the first of what would become a 17-minute hat-trick. Madrid created chances worth 2.2 xG across the tie and 1.5 of those came in the final 29 minutes after Donnarumma's gift.

Benzema scored another hat-trick in the first leg against Chelsea, registering two exceptionally well taken headers and benefiting from an error by Blues keeper Edouard Mendy at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea outshot Real 48-18 over the two matches although, as the second graph shows, that is partly explained by game state and Ancelotti's men seeking to minimise risk, as they didn't register a shot for more than 50 minutes after going 3-1 up in the tie.

An exceptional Chelsea performance in the Bernabeu saw them turn it around, going 4-3 ahead on aggregate and having another goal chalked off for a debatable handball. Madrid hit 8-1 in-play to qualify before Rodrygo in the 80th minute and Benzema (again) in extra time completed another comeback.

The Spanish champions faced even more insurmountable odds in the second leg against Manchester City, trading at 100-1 to go through when they were 5-3 down on aggregate approaching stoppage time in Madrid.

Despite chasing the tie, Real failed to register a shot on target during the opening 89 minutes as City were able to keep them at arm's length before a spectacular late collapse saw the hosts score twice in injury-time and again at the start of extra-time.

Against City, Real scored six goals from an xG of 3.9 (boosted by two penalties) and exceptional finishing was a feature of their progress through the knockout stages as they chalked up 14 goals from an xG of just 9.2.

The best strikers will usually outperform the quality of chances they are presented with but even for a player of Benzema's calibre, ten goals in the knockout stages from 4.6 xG means he has run particularly hot.

If you simulate each shot based on its xG across both legs of all ties, then Real had around an 18 per cent chance of beating PSG on aggregate without requiring penalties, 26 per cent chance of beating Chelsea, and 37 per cent of emerging victorious against City.

Of course, game state and which side needed to chase the tie will have affected how those contests were played out, but it still gives some insight into the odds Madrid defied just to reach the final.

The market gives Ancelotti's side an overround-adjusted 39 per cent chance of lifting the trophy against Liverpool and the underdogs will be hoping that the prolific Benzema has his shooting boots on one more time.

Not got a bet365 account? Bet £10 & get £50 in free bets

Open account offer. Minimum deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as bet credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Minimum odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude bet credits stake. Time limits/T&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware.org

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport