The Ashes best bets for day four and odds: Malan and Root frustrate home bowlers

Free cricket tips, best bets and analysis for the Ashes between Australia and England.

Where to watch

BT Sport 1, 11.30pm Friday

Scoreboard
Australia 425 (Head 152, Robinson 3-58) lead England 147 (Buttler 39, Cummins 5-38) & 220-2 (Root 86 not out) by 58 runs

Best prices
2-5 Australia, 7-1 England, 7-2 Draw

Story of day three

Australia began the day at odds of 1-18 for victory in Brisbane and Travis Head (152), Mitchell Starc (35) and Nathan Lyon (15) extended their first-innings lead to 278.

The Aussies' last four wickets added 189 runs, most of them coming from the bat of Head, and they almost made the perfect start with the ball as Rory Burns, on a pair, was given out lbw in the first over of England's second innings.

The Surrey man successfully reviewed the decision but was soon caught behind for 13 off home captain Pat Cummins and his opening partner Haseeb Hameed gloved one down the leg side after an assured innings of 27.

England trailed by 217 runs at that stage but skipper Joe Root and number three Dawid Malan, the tourists' top runscorer in the 2017-18 Ashes series, fought back well.

The pair put on an unbroken stand of 159 for the third wicket, playing positively against the spin of Nathan Lyon and getting away with a few loose shots late in the day.

Root is 14 runs away from a first Test century in Australia (at the 19th attempt) but England still trail by 58 and the second new ball can be taken ten overs into the fourth morning.

Star of the day

Root showed admirable fortitude with the bat after a shocking start to the series. Having won the toss, he had seen his side rolled for 147, making a duck himself, before a ragged display in the field helped Australia establish a huge lead.

The England skipper has now scored 1,541 Test runs at an average of 67 this year and he will be desperate to turn his 86 not out into a match-saving score on day four.

Moment of the day

The dot ball that ended the 29th over of England's innings didn't seem like a decisive moment at the time but it turned out to be Josh Hazlewood's final delivery of the day.

His teammate Head claimed there were no fitness concerns over the ace fast bowler, who bowled eight threatening overs for 13 runs, but England certainly benefited from his absence from the attack, moving from 75-2 to 220-2.

View from the camp

'We're back in the game and hopefully we can get at least another 100-run partnership between me and Joe and then whoever comes in next. It's become a good wicket and hopefully we can cash in.'

Dawid Malan, England batsman

Day four preview

Backers of Australia at short prices may be having flashbacks to Ben Stokes's 2019 miracle at Headingley but a couple of quick wickets would put the hosts back in charge, especially with the second new ball available early on day four.

With a clear weather forecast for the last two days at the Gabba, England have to bat long, as they did in their famous 2010 draw when they racked up 517-1 in the second innings after conceding a lead of 221.

Bet365 make England 7-5 to pass 480, which would set Australia a target of just over 200 for victory, but batting will not get any easier on a day-four pitch and going under Coral's runs line of 448.5 could be profitable.

If either Malan or Root are dismissed early then England's middle-order would be exposed to the new ball and they are no strangers to a batting collapse.

Root, as ever, holds the key. Four of his six Test centuries this year have been scores of 180 or more and Hills offer 6-4 that he reaches 150 and 4-1 that he scores a third double-ton of the year.

Best bet

England to score under 448.5 runs
1pt 10-11 Coral

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