England v Australia third Ashes Test predictions and cricket betting tips

Where to watch England v Australia

Sky Sports Cricket & Main Event, 11am Thursday

Best bets

Mitchell Starc top Australia first-innings wicket-taker
2pts 3-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Joe Root under 120.5 performance points
3pts Evs bet365

Jonny Bairstow to score a first-innings fifty
2pts 5-2 Betfair, Paddy Power

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England v Australia predictions

Having lost six of their last seven Test matches against Australia, England need to win three in a row if they are to regain the Ashes.

They hope to start their fightback at Headingley, where Ian Botham and Ben Stokes produced Ashes miracles in 1981 and 2019, but the Aussies are favourites to take an unassailable 3-0 series lead in Leeds.

Australia, who have not won a series in England since 2001, can expect a hostile reception after Alex Carey's controversial stumping of Yorkshire hero Jonny Bairstow at Lord's on Sunday.

That incident provided a smokescreen for England's patchy performance at HQ, where they crumbled from 188-1 to 325 all out in the first innings and needed a stunning 155 from Stokes to avoid a comprehensive defeat on day five.

The captain's innings was a masterclass of calculated aggression but England's displays in the first two Tests have been marred by soft dismissals, dropped catches and no balls.

The rowdy atmosphere at Headingley is unlikely to concern Australia, whose tour of England started with an impressive win over India in the World Test Championship final at The Oval.

Rain is forecast to disrupt play over the weekend but the Aussies, leading 2-0 with three Tests remaining, know that England have to make the running.

Visiting skipper Pat Cummins lost the toss in the first two Tests and his side had the worst of the conditions at Lord's. The absence of spinner Nathan Lyon, who suffered a calf injury last week while making his 100th consecutive Test appearance, is a blow but Australia's fast bowlers should relish their return to Headingley, where they bowled out England for 67 in the first innings four years ago.

Last summer, England were reduced to 55-6 in their first innings against New Zealand after Trent Boult bowled their top three batsmen in his first four overs.

Mitchell Starc, an ace left-armer paceman like Boult, could lead the way for Australia after an impressive performance at Lord's, where he dismissed Joe Root, Harry Brook and Stokes in the first innings and cleaned up Ollie Pope with a ripper second time around.

Root should never be taken on lightly but a performance line of 120.5, with one point per run, ten per catch and 20 per wicket, looks too high given the weather forecast and the recall of spinner Moeen Ali, which may limit his role with the ball.

Root made just ten and 18 at Lord's, where he was also caught off a Cameron Green no-ball early in his first innings, and he has recorded three ducks in 15 Test innings in Leeds, including one in the 2019 Ashes Test.

Pope's injury should mean a promotion in the batting order for wicketkeeper Bairstow, who scored 162 and 71 not out against New Zealand at Headingley last summer. He averages 63.7 in seven Tests at his home ground and, having thumped 78 from number seven in the first Test at Edgbaston, looks a decent bet to reach 50.

Team news

England
Chris Woakes, Moeen Ali and Mark Wood have replaced Ollie Pope, Josh Tongue and James Anderson. Harry Brook is set to bat at number three after Pope was ruled out of the series with a shoulder injury.

Australia
Nathan Lyon (calf) will not play again in this series so off-spinner Todd Murphy should earn his fifth Test cap. Fast bowler Josh Hazlewood will be assessed after his efforts at Lord's with Scott Boland waiting in the wings.

Weather forecast

Days one and two should be cloudy but dry. Thunderstorms may disrupt play on the third afternoon and showers are also expected on days four and five with temperatures ranging from 20C to 26C.

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