England v Australia: first Ashes Test betting preview, predictions & tips

TV: Sky Sports Cricket & Main Event, 11am Thursday

England romped to an eight-wicket win over Australia at Edgbaston in last month's World Cup semi-final but they can expect a tighter contest when the Ashes Test series starts in Birmingham.

In the last 11 series against Australia, England have won the opening match only twice and they made a miserable start to last week's Test against Ireland, getting bowled out for 85 before lunch on the first day.

• Ashes series preview

Australia, tipped at 6-4 to win the series by Racing Post Sport on Wednesday, have their own issues as star batsmen Steve Smith and David Warner prepare for their first Test appearances since returning from 12-month bans for ball-tampering.

But the Aussies overpowered England 4-0 in the 2017-18 Ashes and their bowlers should trouble a struggling home batting line-up.

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The Ashes would usually dominate an English cricketing summer but England's dramatic World Cup triumph means the series against Australia has slipped under the radar a little.

Mitchell Starc and Jofra Archer, the teams' leading wicket-takers at the World Cup, are set to miss the first Test although that doesn't mean batsmen can expect an easy ride at Edgbaston.

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Australia's Pat Cummins will be the leader of the attack in Starc's absence and the paceman has produced some outstanding Test performances in the last 18 months.

The sandpaper scandal overshadowed last year's series in South Africa but home captain Faf du Plessis singled out Cummins for praise after his nine-wicket haul in the final match in Johannesburg.

The Aussie quick had a stunning MCG Test against India in December, with match figures of 9-99 and a career-best score of 63, before routing Sri Lanka with 10-62 in January.

The leading wicket-taker in the 2017-18 Ashes, Cummins warmed up with 5-24 in the Aussies' training game at the Rose Bowl and he is a tempting 12-1 to be man of the match.

Ben Stokes's last five innings at the World Cup were 82 not out, 89 (against Australia at Lord's), 79, 11 and 84 not out in the final against New Zealand and he can take that fine batting form into the Test series.

Stokes stood tall with the bat when England were up against it in the World Cup and a reshuffled top order means he may well have to rescue his side in the first innings.

He is one of England's best players of fast bowling, averages a respectable 38 in Test cricket since the start of 2016, and should be full of confidence after his World Cup heroics and regaining the Test vice-captaincy.

Rory Burns is set to open despite scoring just 12 runs in two innings against Ireland while Surrey teammate Jason Roy was out for an unconvincing five in his first Test knock at Lord's.

Roy made amends with 72 second time around but England have made no secret of the fact that they would prefer him to bat lower down the order and Australia are worth backing to post the higher opening partnership in the first innings.

• Ashes top runscorer

It may not be a high-scoring heat given the threat of the teams' new-ball bowlers but David Warner and either Marcus Harris or Cameron Bancroft have the experience and grit to outscore Burns and Roy.

Warner was noticeably more watchful in the early stages of his innings at the World Cup while Harris had a solid debut series against India and racked up 1,188 runs in ten Sheffield Shield games for Victoria.

Bancroft has had a successful season as Durham captain and made 93 not out on a treacherous pitch at the Rose Bowl last week when only one other player – Warner – reached 50.

Recommendations
P Cummins to be man of the match
1pt 12-1 Betway, Coral, Ladbrokes
Bet on Pat Cummins with Ladbrokes here
B Stokes top England first-innings runscorer
1pt 6-1 general
Bet on Ben Stokes with bet365 here
Australia to have higher opening partnership in first innings
3pts 10-11 Sky Bet
Bet on Australia with William Hill here

Venue: Edgbaston, Birmingham

England have lost only one of their last 14 Tests at Edgbaston, the scene of their memorable two-run win over Australia in the 2015 Ashes.

James Anderson, with 44 wickets in ten Tests, is the leading bowler at the venue and there is usually a good battle between bat and ball with only four of the last 22 games ending in a draw.

Team news

England
Archer has been left out as he recovers from his World Cup exertions and Mark Wood is also sidelined. Joe Root will bat at number three with Joe Denly moving down to four.

Australia
Starc is unlikely to be risked for the series opener so James Pattinson is set to play his third Ashes Test. Harris and Bancroft are vying for an opening spot and Usman Khawaja has recovered from a hamstring injury.

Weather forecast

Cloudy but dry for the first two days, scattered showers on days three and four, sunny intervals on day five, 20-22C.

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