England v Australia Ashes series predictions and cricket betting tips

Where to watch England v Australia

First Test at Edgbaston
Sky Sports Cricket & Main Event, 11am Friday

Best bets

Australia to win Ashes series
4pts 19-20 bet365

Australia to win 3-2
1pt 6-1 bet365, Hills

England v Australia Ashes predictions

England are swaggering into the 2023 Ashes series after a run of 11 victories in 13 Test matches under bullish captain Ben Stokes and coach Brendon McCullum but they could be brought down to earth by newly-crowned world Test champions Australia. 

Playing an ultra-aggressive brand of Test cricket, England outclassed New Zealand, India and South Africa at home last summer before a stunning 3-0 series win in Pakistan in December.

February's one-run defeat in New Zealand denied them another series victory and they warmed up for the Ashes with a ten-wicket rout of Ireland at Lord's, piling up 524-4 declared in their first innings.

It has been an extraordinary turnaround given that Stokes and McCullum inherited a side who had won just one of their previous 17 Test matches, including a brutal 4-0 defeat to Australia in the 2021-22 Ashes.

England narrowly avoided a 5-0 whitewash down under – number 11 James Anderson survived the final over to earn a draw in the fourth Test in Sydney – and, for all the exhilarating progress made over the past 12 months, they face a tough task to regain the urn.

Stokes and McCullum are bristling with positive energy but their confidence is not shared by the market and the gamble on Australia winning the series looks well founded.

The Aussies, 6-4 at the start of April, were cut to odds-on following their commanding victory over India in last week's World Test Championship final at The Oval.

A mammoth first-innings partnership between Steve Smith (121) and Travis Head (163) set up the win and Australia's bowlers never allowed India to get a foothold in the contest.

Pacemen Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Scott Boland were superb, all-rounder Cameron Green bowled key man Cheteshwar Pujara in the first innings, and spinner Nathan Lyon wrapped up the win with 4-41 in the second innings.

As the betting suggests, it is hard to split England and Australia but the tourists' bowling attack may give them a crucial edge.

England's Ashes plans were disrupted when spinner Jack Leach, an ever-present in the McCullum era, was ruled out with a back injury and skipper Stokes, whose bowling is so important to the balance of the side, has sent down only 17 overs in his last five Tests. 

Most of England's recent selection punts have paid off but bringing Moeen Ali out of Test retirement to replace Leach is a risky one as his 20 wickets against Australia have cost 65 runs apiece.

England's scoring rate since McCullum took charge is 4.85 runs per over, compared with 2.77 in their overall Test history, and they are unlikely to temper that approach in the Ashes.

Jonny Bairstow, who scored six brilliant Test centuries last year, will keep wicket and bat at number seven and the hosts' batting depth has got them out of trouble several times during their successful run in 2022 and 2023.

Few of England's opponents had such a complete bowling attack as Australia's, however. After the new-ball burst from Cummins and Starc, there is no respite when Boland, Green and Josh Hazlewood, who took 20 wickets in four matches in the 2019 Ashes, take over and ace off-spinner Lyon is closing in on 500 Test scalps.

Stokes has said that he wants "fast, flat" pitches for the Ashes and England's top-order batters Ben Duckett, Zak Crawley, Ollie Pope, Joe Root and Harry Brook love to play their shots. With Stokes, Bairstow and Moeen at numbers six, seven and eight, there are bound to be times when they get on top of the Aussie bowlers.

However, if those flat pitches materialise and the weather stays fair, it could diminish the threat of veterans Anderson and Stuart Broad. Without the injured Jofra Archer, who unsettled even Smith during the 2019 Ashes, England may lack the firepower to take on the Aussies on pacy wickets.

Australia had to settle for a 2-2 draw in England four years ago, when Stokes led the hosts to an incredible one-wicket win at Headingley, but the world Test champions can go one better this summer.

England are clearly a far more confident side than the one led by Root in the 2021-22 series in Australia. Their style of cricket is risky, though, and they are far from the finished article, suffering an innings defeat to South Africa at Lord's last year and losing to New Zealand in Wellington in February despite enforcing the follow-on.

Against a team as strong as Australia, England will find it harder to recover from bad sessions and the Aussies should be backed to edge a hugely entertaining series. As draws tend to be regarded with disdain by Stokes and McCullum, a 3-2 Australia win is also worth a bet in the correct-score market. 

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport