Donaldson may make Thiem toil for victory

BBC from 11.30am Saturday

Thiem v Donaldson
Dominic Thiem has been well backed to make light of a 6.5-game concession on bookmakers’ handicaps for his third-round clash with Jared Donaldson, but while the impressive Austrian could dismiss the American in straight sets there may still be a case for trying to get with the improving outsider.

The support for Thiem is not surprising because he tends to wear down opponents, even if they capture the odd set, as was the case in his 5-7 6-4 6-2 6-4 second-round victory over Gilles Simon.

That clash, for example, saw Thiem’s game supremacy weigh in at six and with Simon still a superior performer to Donaldson it’s not hard to understand the logic of punters who are aligning themselves with the eighth seed.

But Donaldson, while promising in his own right and making strides under coaches Mardy Fish and Jan-Michael Gambill (he started out under Taylor Dent), is also a big server so that could help him in his quest to win at least a set.

Donaldson, who played some decent tennis in the lead-up to Wimbledon, has stepped up his form in south-west London. The 6ft 2in 20-year-old is 19-20 to win at least a set and that is worth considering.

Recommendation
J Donaldson to win at least a set
1pt 19-20 188Bet

M Zverev v Federer
A sign of how much the coming of Alexander Zverev has helped his older brother Mischa discover greater focus can be seen in the head-to-heads between Roger Federer and Zverev senior.

In 2013, when Federer first played Mischa on grass in Halle, he won 6-0 6-0. But when the duo met at the same Gerry Weber Stadion last month the Swiss legend won 7-6 6-4 on the way to lifting the title in Germany.

Zverev senior had been a huge underachiever before young Alex started on his campaign to rule the tennis world, but it has been a joy to see big brother’s progress in the last couple of seasons.

There’s a case for thinking that the longer matches at Wimbledon may actually help Zverev in his third turf meeting with the great man.

Most bookmakers afford Zverev a start of 7.5 games for their last-32 rumble, but with the outsider having come in for support at that mark, punters can definitely consider supporting the Russian-born German with a start of 8.5 games at 4-7.

Paddy Power are running their total games won quotes for individual players and they offer Zverev on a mark of over/under 11.5. The market sometimes provides punting opportunities, but in this particular instance the quote looks too high so go with the bigger start.

Recommendation
M Zverev +8.5 games
1pt 4-7 Betfair, Paddy Power

Other matches
Tomas Berdych ought to defeat David Ferrer, but the Spanish veteran is playing his best tennis of the year in London.

Alexander Zverev should make favouritism tell against Sebastian Ofner, but the little-known Austrian is enjoying the biggest payday of his career and should have few nerves.

Dudi Sela played a blinder to defeat John Isner in round two, but a repeat performance against Grigor Dimitrov looks unlikely.

Milos Raonic does not look to be playing at his peak and that could afford Albert Ramos-Vinolas a window of opportunity.

Gael Monfils is enjoying the best grass season of his career and should have too much for Adrian Mannarino, while Novak Djokovic will doubtless be confident that he can extend his 6-1 personal series lead over Ernests Gulbis.