Australia v England third Ashes Test predictions and cricket betting tips

Free cricket tips, best bets and analysis for Saturday's third Test between Australia and England in Melbourne.

Where to watch

BT Sport 1, 11.30pm Saturday

Best bets

Dawid Malan top England first-innings runscorer
1pt 4-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Dawid Malan over 26.5 first-innings runs
3pts 5-6 Coral, Ladbrokes

Steve Smith to score a first-innings fifty
2pts 5-4 Coral, Ladbrokes

Team news

Australia
Josh Hazlewood remains sidelined but skipper Pat Cummins should return after missing the second Test after being deemed a close contact of a Covid-19 case and Mitchell Starc is fit.

England
Zak Crawley may replace Haseeb Hameed at the top of the order. Ollie Pope and Chris Woakes could also be axed with Jonny Bairstow and Mark Wood their replacements.

Third Test preview

Battered and bruised, England head to Melbourne for the annual Boxing Day Test firmly on the ropes in their quest to regain the Ashes.

After their customary thrashing at the Gabba, Joe Root’s tourists faltered in the twilight zone of Adelaide’s day-night Test match last week and must win all three remaining matches to take home the urn.

Given that they’ve lost 11 of their last 12 Tests down under that is clearly fanciful. Just avoiding another 5-0 drubbing would probably be relief enough for some England fans, although the fact that outcome is 7-4 from 9-1 before Brisbane does little to inspire much confidence.

Perhaps more frustrating for England and their supporters has been the utter predict­ability of it all. Two batting collapses in Brisbane were followed by another in the first innings at the Adelaide Oval as England fell from 150-2 to 236 all out, losing their last eight wickets for just 86 runs.

While Root and number three David Malan were at the crease there appeared little trouble, but the skipper’s dismissal was once again the signal for England’s house of cards to fold. There was some heartening resistance from Jos Buttler and Chris Woakes second time around as they delayed an inevitable Australia victory until the final session of the match, but England’s inability to post a competitive first-innings total is coming back to haunt Root’s men time and again.

The form of Malan has at least been one modicum of positivity. The Yorkshire batsman has, in the main, looked unruffled by the chaos ensuing around him to post half-centuries in each of the first two Tests.

His crisp stroke play is ideally suited to Australian wickets and, alongside Ben Stokes and Jonny Bairstow, he is one of just three players in the English touring party to have scored a Test century in Australia.

Barring Root there isn’t much competition in the top England runscorer market with Australia’s bowlers having both openers’ number, while Ollie Pope has looked frantic and for all his white-ball heroics, Buttler has hit two Test tons in 55 matches.

At 4-1 Malan is a tempting alternative to skipper Root in that market and backing the 34-year-old to score 27 runs or more in England’s first innings also looks worth taking.

If England are in disarray, Australia have the luxury of being able to welcome back captain Pat Cummins as they seek to seal a series triumph at the earliest opportunity.

Cummins looks sure to return after being deemed a close contact of a Covid-19 case in Adelaide, while Jhye Richardson, who took five wickets in the second innings last week, is likely to keep his place with Josh Hazlewood absent through injury again.

Marnus Labuschagne’s man-of-the-match display with the bat in Adelaide saw him usurp Root as the ICC’s top-ranked Test batsman and he has also leapt above Steve Smith in the top Aussie run­scorer betting – the first time someone other than Smith has been favourite in that market against England for a long time.

Labuschagne has scored one century and two fifties in four innings in the series – the other was nought not out when chasing a small total in Brisbane – but he rode his luck in Adelaide, being dropped twice by Buttler and caught off a no-ball during his first-innings ton.

Smith, meanwhile, fell seven runs short of a 28th Test century last week but there were signs that he is getting back to his enigmatic best and his record at the MCG is unrivalled.

In 14 innings in Melbourne, Smith has plundered 916 runs, including four tons, at an average of over 91 and those figures would be even more impressive were it not for a couple of low scores on his last two visits to the MCG.

He hit 76 and 102 not out in the last Ashes Test in Melbourne and has passed fifty in half of his innings at ‘The G’. Another half-century is a tempting 5-4 chance.

Weather forecast

Sunny spells and a light breeze throughout, with temperatures peaking at 31C on day four.

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