Australia v England first Test predictions: Home skipper could shine

Free cricket tips, best bets and analysis for Wednesday's first Test between Australia and England in Brisbane.

Where to watch

BT Sport 1, midnight Wednesday

Best bets

Marnus Labuschagne to score a first-innings fifty
2pts 13-8 Betfair, Paddy Power

Pat Cummins to take over 4.5 wickets in the match
2pts Evs bet365

Dawid Malan top England first-innings runscorer
1pt 11-2 Betfair, Paddy Power

Team news

Australia
Pat Cummins will captain the Aussies for the first time and wicketkeeper Alex Carey is set for a Test debut. Travis Head will bat at number five, having got the nod over Usman Khawaja.

England
James Anderson is being rested for the day-night match in Adelaide but Ben Stokes is available to play his first Test since March. Dawid Malan is likely to bat at number three with Ollie Pope preferred to Jonny Bairstow at six.

First Test preview

Australia suffered their first Test defeat at the Gabba since 1988 against India in January but they look solid favourites to start the Ashes series with a victory over England at the Brisbane venue.

La Nina's summer thunderstorms are rated a bigger threat to the Aussies' chances than England and the draw has been cut with rain interruptions forecast for the first two days.

It took a stunning run-chase from a fearless young India side to end the hosts' long unbeaten run at the Gabba and it is hard to see England following suit after a disrupted build-up to the series.

Joe Root's men won their first three Test matches of 2021 in Sri Lanka and India but they have claimed only one victory in nine subsequent outings and Australia's 11 for Pat Cummins's first game as captain is packed with quality and experience.

England's bowlers know all about the threat of Steve Smith and David Warner, especially on home soil, but Marnus Labuschagne is just as highly regarded in the top Australia runscorer market.

Labuschagne had a breakthrough series in the 2019 Ashes, where he was pressed into action as a concussion substitute for Smith, scoring four fifties and a 48 in just seven innings.

Since then he has played nine Test matches, all at home, and his first-innings scores have been 185, 162, 143, 63, 215, 47, 48, 91 and 108.

Labuschagne's three Test appearances at the Gabba, his home ground, have yielded centuries against Pakistan and India and an 81 against Sri Lanka and the 13-8 about him reaching 50 in the first innings of the series is an alluring price - it's as short as 10-11 elsewhere.

New skipper Cummins has plenty on his mind as he becomes the first fast bowler to captain Australia's Test team since Ray Lindwall in 1956.

However, like Labuschagne, he has a formidable record at the Gabba and he should be backed to take five or more wickets in the opening game of the series.

After an injury-ravaged start to his career, Cummins has developed into one of the most reliable pace bowlers in the world and he has claimed 25 wickets in just four Brisbane Tests. His Gabba strike-rate of a wicket every 39.9 balls compares favourably to those of Mitchell Starc (50.9) and Josh Hazlewood (53.9) and he took a career-best 6-23 against Sri Lanka in 2019.

In his last bowling innings at the venue, Cummins dismissed four of India's top six and he should cause major problems for England's batting unit.

His opposite number Root is clearly the key target for the Aussie bowlers, having scored six of England's seven Test centuries in 2021. England have won four of their 12 Tests this year and Root's first-innings contributions to those victories were 228, 186, 218 and 121.

None of that is lost on bookmakers and, given that he has a highest score of just 87 after 17 innings in Australia, it is worth taking on the top-runscorer favourite.

Dawid Malan finished the 2017-18 Ashes series as England's leading runscorer, helped by an excellent 140 in Perth and a first-innings fifty at the Gabba.

After three years out of the Test team, Malan was recalled to bat at three against India last summer, making 70 at Headingley and 31 and five at The Oval.

Malan has shown he has the temperament for international cricket, rising to number one in the ICC's Twenty20 batting rankings, and his skill against pace bowling makes him an appealing bet to top-score in the first innings of the series.

Weather forecast

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for days one, two and five but days three and four should be cloudy but dry. Temperatures range from 27C to 31C.

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