Who wins the 2022 Vertem Futurity Trophy based on previous trends?

The nights are drawing in and our jumps heroes are returning, but all eyes will still be on Doncaster on Saturday and the Vertem Futurity Trophy (3.35). Is there a potential superstar lurking in the field who could be set for glory in the Derby next summer? Here we take a look at what is needed to win this key trial for two-year-olds.

Experience

The last ten winners of the Vertem Futurity all had between one and five starts before heading to Doncaster, at an average of 2.7. Kingsbarns, successful for Aidan O'Brien in 2012, had only one run at Navan under his belt before landing the Group 1.

Mac Swiney, the 2020 winner, had started five times – four at the Curragh and once at Leopardstown – before crossing the Irish Sea. Ante-post favourite Auguste Rodin has raced three times this campaign – once more than his stablemate and last year's winner Luxembourg.

Ratings

Aidan O'Brien's Vertem Futurity winners have carried the highest Racing Post Ratings heading into the Doncaster contest in the last ten years.

Magna Grecia had run to an RPR of 114 before heading to Town Moor, Luxembourg had run to 113 and Saxon Warrior 112. Those RPRs were all achieved on their second starts, with all three going on to win at Doncaster on their third outing.

The lowest RPR posted by a winner pre-Doncaster came in 2015, when Marcel received ran to an RPR of 86 in his victory at Newcastle.

Saxon Warrior edges out Roaring Lion to win the Racing Post Trophy in 2017Credit: Edward Whitaker

Distance

The Vertem Futurity is run over a mile – how many previous winners had already had a crack at the distance?

Seven of the last ten had run over a mile before, with five having also won over the trip. The three horses who had done neither were Marcel (2015), Rivet (2016) and Mac Swiney (2020).

All four of Aidan O'Brien's winners since 2012 had attempted the mile before Doncaster, with Magna Grecia the only one not to win at the distance. Both of O'Brien's runners, Auguste Rodin and Salt Lake City, have run over the mile.

Odds

This has often been a race for favourite-backers, with six going in during the last ten years. Marcel was a shock 33-1 winner in 2015, with Mac Swiney winning at 12-1 on bottomless ground in 2020. Every other winner since 2012 has gone off at a single-figure price.

Trainer

Aidan O'Brien has dominated the race with four wins since 2012. Andrew Balding (2014, 2019) is the only other trainer to win it more than once in the same period. John and Thady Gosden currently have the second-favourite in Epictetus – but this race is a rare hole in Gosden snr's glittering CV.

Can Epictetus give John Gosden his first win in the race?Credit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Verdict

RPRs suggest is not quite as good as Aidan O'Brien's recent winners at this stage – he recorded 108 last time out, compared with Luxembourg's 113 last year. However, he still seems to have the right profile to give Ballydoyle another win.

Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes (3.35 Doncaster, Saturday)

bet365: 5-6 Auguste Rodin, 7-2 Epictetus, 7 Stormbuster, Holloway Boy, 16 Salt Lake City, 20 King Of Steel, 33 Dancing Magic, 50 Captain Wierzba

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Confirmed runners and riders for the Vertem Futurity Trophy – plus an early tip

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