The return of Luxembourg: can the forgotten horse emerge as a new Arc contender?

One-time Derby favourite Luxembourg is set to return to action in the Group 3 Royal Whip Stakes (4.05) at the Curragh on Saturday after a lengthy lay-off due to a muscle injury.

The 2,000 Guineas third had posted some classy juvenile efforts which saw him go unbeaten in three starts, including victory in the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Stakes at Doncaster and his untimely absence has been sorely felt by trainer Aidan O'Brien with Ballydoyle lacking a genuine star amongst their three-year olds.

Could he fill the middle-distance void?

The middle-distance division this season has lacked a bona fide superstar. Last year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe runner-up Hurricane Lane has looked a shadow of his former self in his two starts while his stablemate Adayar has yet to reappear.

Derby winner Desert Crown now looks unlikely to feature until next year, while Oaks second Emily Upjohn and Westover – the runaway winner of the Irish Derby – failed to perform in the King George at Ascot.

Pyledriver’s unlikely victory from Torquator Tasso that day did little to clear the waters of a murky Arc market, possibly leaving the door ajar for general 20-1 chance Luxembourg should he perform well on Saturday.

What challenge does he face on Saturday?

Luxembourg’s pedigree suggests he should have little problem making the step up in trip to a mile and a quarter in the Royal Whip. He is a half brother to Leo De Fury who has won over a mile and four, while Leo De Fury’s full-sister – Lady Dahlia – was also successful over the same distance.

Further evidence in Luxembourg’s favour was his impressive performance in the Vertem Futurity over a mile where he came from the back to finish very strongly.

As for the opposition, Luxembourg looks to be presented with a relatively straightforward assignment. His closest competitor in ratings – stablemate Point Lonsdale – is unlikely to be declared with O’Brien instead targeting the Juddmonte International or the Great Voltigeur at York.

Insinuendo did win a fillies' Group 2 at the Curragh last year but other potential rivals Georgeville and Duke De Sessa may lack the class.

What next before an Arc tilt?

Luxembourg with trainer Aidan O'BrienCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

All being well at the weekend, a tilt at the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on September 10 has been touted as Luxembourg's major Autumn target before potential assignments at Longchamp and on British Champions Day come into view.

What do the bookies say?

David Stevens, Coral: “Luxembourg has always been shown plenty of respect by bookmakers, having headed the betting for this year's Derby throughout last winter, a position he maintained following his third place finish in the 2,000 Guineas, until injury ruled him out of Epsom.

"Despite his absence, he's likely to be a warm order for his comeback run this weekend, and while we will learn plenty more about him on Saturday, connections appear to retain plenty of faith in this Group 1 winning colt, and a positive run at the Curragh would see his odds for the big Autumn races tumble.

“Vadeni sets the standard in the Irish Champion but the Arc picture is wide open, and Luxembourg could yet have a big say in the outcome of these important races should things go well in the Royal Whip.”

What does an expert think?

Luxembourg remains a top-class prospect with only four starts to his name and the promise of much more as he embarks over 1m2f for the first time.

I’m not sure we will see fireworks this weekend after 105 days off the track through injury. However, after assessing his potential Royal Whip opponents, I’d imagine he’ll come through this assignment quite comfortably.

As a result he is likely to shorten in price for bigger targets down the line. Luxembourg has four Group 1 entries in the next couple of months and I would anticipate a Champion Stakes double might be next on the agenda. The 1m4f Arc trip could stretch him. The standout 16-1 for the Champions Day highlight at Ascot could look a monster price on Saturday evening.
Robbie Wilders, tipster

Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (October 2, Longchamp)

bet365: 5 Titleholder, 13-2 Torquator Tasso, 15-2 Alpinista, 10 Vadeni, 12 Pyledriver, 14 Onesto, 16 Free Wind, 20 Hurricane Lane, Luxembourg, Hitotsu, Westover, Do Deuce, New London, Adayar, 25 bar

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