How do you make your selections? Racing Post readers tell (almost) all

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If you haven't already looked, the results from our Big Punting Survey were published at the end of last week and you can read about the main findings here and here.

We invited you to "please tell us more about your process for making selections" and the Front Runner has been allowed to have a good rummage through the answers in search of gems. Lots of people skipped right over this section but more than 3,000 of you took the time to write something, most of which was interesting and printable, although one person libelled every horse trained in France, so I can't share what he said.

Some answers had me nodding my head in recognition. "Watching live racing and replays, then identifying horses which are likely to improve enough to win in the future," was one example. Another was: "Study the form, race conditions and horses, read past race reviews, check what others are saying and review any trainer comments available." Good, solid, sensible stuff.

One reply made me a bit jealous because we're sort of doing the same thing, only this person is doing it better, by the sound of it: "I look for a horse largely forgotten in the betting, whose form means it 'just might' do it. It means I back a lot of placed horses at good each-way odds and I do a lot of exactas as a sort of back-up. I have to kiss a lot of frogs, but I have the odd magnificent payday for tiny stakes."

Here's one that was more observation than insight but nonetheless felt important: "It used to drive me potty that a horse would win and, as it crossed the line, the commentator would remark that it had done well for being gelded since last time out. Sharing that information beforehand has been a good step forward in informing punters." Amen!

Some of the old cliches were trotted out: "Believe all that you see, half of what you read and nothing that you hear." Fair enough but can you believe what you smell, eh?

"I like some tipsters," says one. "I used to love Gerald Delamere. That said, all tipsters can find a gem; sometimes, I think they've really got one. If I'm going to a race-meeting with friends who expect me to bet in each race, I'll use trends. Generally, I avoid the obvious. All that said, the evidence of one's own eyes is the best approach." 

Lots to chew on there. By contrast, many of you felt that brevity was the soul of wit. There was a slew of one-word answers that raised as many questions as answers.

"Memory," said one reply. I guess we know what is meant. You remember the horse won under similar conditions a couple of years back, or that this low-profile trainer likes to aim at this race.

Somebody's entire answer was: "Maths". Okay ... but what numbers are we looking at and do you add or multiply or what? I wouldn't be here if a sound grasp of long division were required to understand the game.

"Instinct," said another. 

"Holistic."

"Random."

"Eyes." How can that be the whole of your answer? I think we've established that having the power of sight is not the same as being able to unscramble all the mysteries of horse racing.

"Hopeless," said someone else. We've all had that feeling.

Other answers, while extending beyond a single word, still fell short of total clarity. "Using logic," was one. It's a great idea if you can do it.

"Spreadsheet model". Fine, but what goes in the spreadsheet?

Among the more mysterious answers was: "Ex jockey". You'd like me to say who it was, but the responses are anonymised, so it might be a hollow brag for all I know. Still, it's interesting someone thinks that's all you need to know about their selection process. They used to ride in races and now the winners practically pick themselves.

"Self evident," was another one, perhaps the most obviously inaccurate assertion in the history of racing.

Some answers inspire a feeling of missing out. "Friends in racing," led the way, closely followed by: "In private betting groups with contacts".

"Meeting people at racecourses" - oh, come on! That doesn't work ... does it?

"I work in an industry where occasionally information about a horse becomes available from a connection. I'll increase my stake accordingly." A tiny bit smug, that "accordingly".

"An old lady taught me her system," said one. It could be true but I'd have this one odds-on to be sarcasm.

I felt the same about: "I use astrology," until I discovered another answer, also claiming to see significance in the relative positioning of celestial objects. 

Apparently, astrology has enjoyed an uptick in popularity in recent years and a poll last year found that a quarter of Americans believe in it. So maybe there's nothing odd about two people out of 10,000 saying they let the stars pick their horses. 

I remember a radio show in 1985 turning up a couple of astrologists who'd won a trip to Aintree, studied the horses' birth charts or something and came up with Last Suspect. There are more things in heaven and Earth than are dreamt of in your philosophy, Mr Segal.

"Thinking a horse was unlucky last time." Oh boy, I've tried that one. Best of luck. Some horses can go on being unlucky forever, or at least until you're out of stake money.

"I'm a f***in' genius at workin' out the form." Well, it's important to believe in yourself.

"It’s not just looking at form. If it was, we would all be millionaires. There are times to look at trainers and jockeys having a good spell and catching it at that time."

I do believe in trainer form. For the most part, jockey form is tied to the form of the trainers they ride for. 

Naturally, some of you have your own favourites. Willie Mullins was among those mentioned and I recall seeing the names of Sam Twiston-Davies and Jim Crowley as well.

Willie Mullins: stable's runners followed by some of our Big Racing Survey participantsCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Others are sceptical about how much reliance can be placed on the human participants. "It’s easy to pick a good horse. It’s pairing it with a reliable jockey! Even Frankie has got it wrong occasionally!"

Some other respondents were fairly clear about how they pick 'em.

"I like to only ever ask a horse to do what it has already done before. So course and/or distance winner, won on the going etc." I do think that's sensible, though I'm not sure how closely I stick to it.

"I will either bet on progressive second-season staying chasers, or experienced horses who have had a period without success but seem ready to benefit from a lower handicap rating." 

"I back horses based on ability not recent form." Hmm, you can get stuck with some regressive horses that way.

"I don't like top-weights or horses that won a handicap last time out and I have certain age limits for races."

"Expensive, well-bred horses."

"Favourites, first three races and last three races on Sky Racing." This would mostly steer you towards novice hurdles and bumpers. You'd get a decent strike-rate, though turning a profit would be another matter.

"If the form reads 42." I think Ivor Herbert used to look for "04" in the form-figures, according to his Spot The Winner cartoons.

"I like watching for horses rarely mentioned in commentary but finish full of running, albeit down the field."

"I look for stamina in horses racing in long-distance events. I also look for 7lb claiming jockeys in Flat races on straight tracks, particularly the five-furlong track at Southwell." There's one I've never heard before. Maybe someone can whizz it through the old system-building software and see if it works? You'd probably need to exclude races confined to apprentices.

"Started betting on the horses in 1966 and experience goes a long way." This is touching, as are other replies I saw claiming experience of 20, 30, 40 and 50 years. 

Clearly, anyone who's been working on the game for more than half a century deserves a steady supply of winners. But the idea we get better at it the longer we try is not, I reckon, invariably borne out in practice.

"Watch the money," was one reply and it's certainly necessary. "I start from the favourite and if it’s short, base everything around that and whether or not that can get beat," said another.

"Bet bigger amounts on bigger-priced horses, as there is more value." I see the sense in it but it's a hard one to stick to. If you're always backing 25-1 shots, you'll get some losing runs that turn your hair white, even if they do mostly deserve to be shorter.

"I try to use as many processes as possible but that can often sully my final decision-making. Certain tipsters can sway me but I often do find, bizarrely, that a gut instinct (within reason) has often served me best, as ludicrous as that might sound."

I don't think it sounds ludicrous, it's perfectly fair to hope you can develop a feel for the game, which will guide you in certain directions even when you might not be able to articulate the reasons why. There were quite a few "gut" mentions among the responses.

"I absolutely enjoy horse racing. I think it's thrilling and fun. I listen to and read analysis on form but the excitement and fun for me is going with, ultimately, my gut feelings."

In the end, that's probably where we all end up, plumping for what feels right after gaping at the card for however much time we happen to have. Then again, some people appear to have the game cracked - but will they tell us how they did it?

"I don’t give away secrets," was the entirety of one response.

In similar vein: "Do you think we will reveal our selection process, think again!"

Here's one that trips up on the anonymity thing: "Give me a job and I will tell you what you would like to know."

Finally, an answer dripping with paranoia. Bear in mind that the question was: 'Please tell us more about your process for making selections.' To that, someone replied:

"So you can shut that down?"

Oh dear. Maybe it's not one big, happy brotherhood amongst us punters. Thanks to everyone who shared their ideas. Hopefully, there's some food for thought in there for all of us.

Monday's picks

On the subject of trainer form, Anthony Honeyball is hot right now, with five wins from ten runners in the past fortnight. He has three runners at Plumpton and Fortuna Ligna (3.35) is interesting in her first handicap, having last been seen when Honeyball was coming to the end of a two-month cool spell.

She was a game third in a Cheltenham bumper in November which is working out about as well as you would expect such a race to work out. Her first hurdle effort, against males, was promising but then her second effort was a bit disappointing.

Finishing fourth in both allows the handicapper to give her a mark and it looks a fair one, if she can find any improvement in line with the improved form of her stablemates. She's 11-4 against Blue Bikini, who must be at some risk of bouncing, having recently won on her return from a long absence.

At Wolverhampton tonight, Rabaah is odds-on for a second success at novice level, though the Lingfield race he won was weak and the runner-up was 0/22 at the time. The 13-8 about Saracen Head (6.30) appeals, he having been notably unlucky in running in an 11-runner contest at Newcastle three weeks ago. Oisin Murphy gets the leg-up this time and trainer Hugo Palmer is making a strong start to his second year in Cheshire. 

'He takes a massive drop in grade' - our Monday man fancies Ayr topweight 

Three things to look out for today . . .

1. Patrick Neville had a big day the last time he was mentioned in this slot, so it seems only fair to note that he's got an interesting couple of runners at Ayr. Until a fortnight ago, The Real Whacker was his only horse to win this season. Since then, Neville has seen four of his other horses achieve victory, from just seven runners. His Breakdance Kid has improvement to find in the opening maiden hurdle and will qualify for a handicap mark after this. But there is also Glentruan, who was beaten only by a stablemate at Catterick last time and should appreciate an extra furlong in today's handicap hurdle, to judge from the way he finished.

2. A novice hurdle on today's Ayr card provides a new start for I Doubt That, responsible for a lot of raised eyebrows during his ten-race career so far. Well held in all his Irish starts, he moved to Wiltshire's Jimmy Fox and landed a punt from 33-1 down to 11-4 at Kempton in May, only to be disqualified some months later when it emerged his ownership details were not as stated on the racecard that day. Lee Mottershead has the full story here. I Doubt That has now moved again, to Daragh Bourke near Lockerbie, and carries new colours. He achieved little in two previous starts over hurdles but those were before he showed improved form on the Flat. It'll be worth watching him, though you'd think his future would be in handicaps.

3. Fresh from winning the National Spirit yesterday, Olly Murphy has an interesting debutant in the Ayr bumper. I Am No Risk has three siblings who won over obstacles in France, including Espion Du Chenet, now winning races in Ireland and occasionally climbing into the 130s. Impressively, Murphy's record in Ayr bumpers is four wins out of six runs.

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The Front Runner is our latest email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, a four-time Racing Reporter of the Year award winner, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Members' Club Ultimate subscriber? Click here to join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content.