Can Corach Rambler emulate Rough Quest and break the poor run of Gold Cup-placed horses in the National?

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Here's a string of form figures: 240FBFP471U2FF45. Kudos if you're able to work out what they might represent before the next paragraph. 

They're the surprisingly discouraging performances in the Grand National of horses who had been placed in the Cheltenham Gold Cup on their previous start. That's a total of 16 runs and just one success over the past 40 years, so definitely not one of the better systems I've come up with.

It's relevant because, of course, Corach Rambler will shortly try to win a second Randox Grand National, having run a very gallant third in the most recent Gold Cup. He ran on stoutly to beat fellow Brits L'Homme Presse and Bravemansgame and was bested only by that classy pair Galopin Des Champs and Gerri Colombe, a terrific effort which won connections £67,000 and fully vindicated the decision to tilt at jump racing's most prestigious contest. 

The surprising bit, for me, was the betting market's reaction. When I caught up with the Grand National odds last week, I was completely stunned to see the Scottish horse was no bigger than 5-1, having been 12s before the Gold Cup. 

Is his chance of Aintree glory all that much stronger in light of his Cheltenham run? Gold Cups are exhausting and Corach Rambler got tired in the final 100 yards, his stride shortening as the gap between him and Gerri Colombe extended to nine and a half lengths at the line. There wasn't much more than two lengths between them at the last. 

Corach Rambler: finished third behind Galopin Des Champs in the Cheltenham Gold CupCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Then again, it was his first run since November. Perhaps it's put him just right for the National. That seems to be the view of Lucinda Russell and Peter Scudamore, who appeared on Racing TV's Luck on Sunday this weekend to talk about him. 

"I don't believe he had a particularly hard race," said Scu, who rides him a lot at home. "He seemed within days to have improved." 

The up-side to that Gold Cup run is that it was a new career best for Corach. He ran to a Racing Post Rating of 169, 9lb better than his effort in winning last year's National. 

There was a conservative response from the official handicapper, who raised him 3lb last week. But the ratings for the National are set, Corach Rambler will run off a mark of 159, even though we now know he's a 162 horse. He's "well in" and of course that gets people excited. I just didn't realise how excited. 

Precedent is our friend when it comes to historic races like the National. Lots of horses have been in a roughly similar position before, so we can look back and reflect on how they fared at Aintree. 

The ideal example is Rough Quest, whose Grand National success is now 28 years ago. That was the race that led to the naming of Mick Fitzgerald's autobiography, Better Than Sex. 

Just 16 days earlier, Rough Quest had defied odds of 12-1 to be second in the Gold Cup behind Imperial Call. The year before, he'd won the race now known as the Ultima - another parallel with Corach Rambler. 

Grand National winner Rough Quest and Mick Fitzgerald in action at AintreeCredit: Allsport/Mike Hewitt

He was even more clearly well treated for the National than Corach Rambler, because he'd also won the Racing Post Chase at Kempton after the Aintree weights were set. I remember his chance was so obvious that Sheikh Mohammed put in a good word for him during coverage of the inaugural Dubai World Cup. And yet he was allowed to start at 7-1, a couple of points bigger than Corach Rambler is now. 

Aha, some will say. You're forgetting that the National field has been reduced to 34, so the task for each runner this year will be just a bit less formidable than others have faced. It's a fair point and one which we must all factor into our thinking. But an oddity of Rough Quest's year was that only 27 ran, for reasons that escape me. 

One detail worth remembering is that the 1996 Gold Cup was run on good ground in a time 23 seconds faster than this year's race, when soft ground prevailed. Rough Quest's Cheltenham experience was less sapping than Corach's. 

Anyway, let's set all that to one side because we've seen other Aintree contenders who were even closer to Corach Rambler's situation. These are horses who won a National, got placed in the following year's Gold Cup and then returned to Aintree. There have been three of them since the 80s. 

1995 Miinnehoma PU

In my lifetime, there's only been a couple of Nationals slower than the one Miinnehoma won in 1994, when he was too quick for Just So in the closing stages. That's pretty thin praise, almost every horse in training was too quick for Just So in ordinary circumstances, but exceptional stamina was required that year and those two pulled clear. 

Miinnehoma got his conditions again in the following year's Gold Cup, when he was a distant third as Master Oats slogged to victory. But the ground had dried out by Aintree and he hardly went a yard. Jim McGrath described him as being "a mile back" at first Becher's and he was pulled up a circuit later. 

2006 Hedgehunter 2nd

Willie Mullins's hardy chaser had zoomed up in the previous year's National, scoring by 14 lengths. His sights were raised to better races in the 2005/06 season and he was second in both the Irish Gold Cup and then the Cheltenham version, won by War Of Attrition in a field of 22. 

Hedgehunter was made 5-1 favourite for a second Aintree success and led for much of the second circuit. But he couldn't give 18lb to Numbersixvalverde, who pulled six lengths clear on the run-in. 

So a 12lb rise from the 2005 race was enough to stop Hedgehunter getting a second National. Corach Rambler is 13lb higher this time. 

2010 Mon Mome Fell

A funny horse was Mon Mome, with only six wins to show for his 40 races over fences. But those who caught him on his big day remember him fondly as the only 100-1 National winner since Foinavon, when he hacked up by 12 lengths in 2009. It was a better run than anything else he did by half a stone. 

Having rocketed up the ratings, he was hard to place the following season and was pitched into the Gold Cup. He was a 50-1 shot and ran like it most of the way, but finished powerfully into third place, 30 lengths behind Imperial Commander, helped by the fact that Kauto Star had fallen. He only collared Cooldine and Carruthers in the final couple of strides. 

Perhaps he'd have managed something similar at Aintree but he got too close to the 26th fence and fell when in eighth position. It looks to me like he was too far behind Don't Push It and Black Apalachi to have got involved. The burden of 11st 7lb was possibly beginning to tell. Corach Rambler, by the by, will have to shoulder at least 11st 5lb this time, having had a stone less on his back a year ago. 

Liam Treadwell on board Mon Mome on their way to winning the 2009 Grand National at Aintree

Other Gold Cup types to have had a go at the National include Garrison Savannah, the Cheltenham hero of 1991 who led on the run-in at Aintree but got outstayed by Seagram. There was also Docklands Express, ridden by Scu into fourth place in 1992, three weeks after being beaten just a length at Cheltenham. 

It's clearly possible for a horse to run well in both the Gold Cup and the National. The hugely likeable Corach Rambler goes to Aintree with a fair chance of surpassing those who went before. 

But seriously, who's taking 5-1? Have a word with yourselves. I can't see anything in this field that deserves to be single-figures at this stage. 

Randox Grand National, Aintree, April 13
Coral: 5 Corach Rambler, 10 I Am Maximus, Vanillier, 12 Panda Boy, 14 Mahler Mission, Meetingofthewaters, 16 Kitty's Light, Noble Yeats, 20 bar

Read these next:

'It's exactly what we wanted' - Lucinda Russell says Gold Cup has primed Corach Rambler in his bid for more Grand National glory 

2024 Grand National: assessing the top six contenders for the big race at Aintree  

The Front Runner is our unmissable email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, the reigning Racing Writer of the Year, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Members' Club Ultimate subscriber? Click here to join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content.