Revealed: the significance of the Lincoln draw and other crucial pointers

The Flat is back, with Saturday's 32Red Lincoln meaning the all-important draw is back in focus.

With 22 horses spread across the width of the Doncaster track, the location of the pace in the race can have a huge impact on how events unfold and who is advantageaddd, while there is the potential for one side or other to benefit from slightly quicker ground.

Here's what you need to know regarding the 2018 edition.

Is there a favoured side?

Well, on the face of it last year's result would suggest not, with Bravery (drawn 20) beating Oh This Is Us (2), Donncha (21) and Gabrial (4). But, and it's a big but, the two drawn high switched left early and raced up the far rail.

32Red.com Lincoln Handicap card, form and betting

So does that mean you want to be low? Well, no. The year before Secret Brief (22), Battle Of Marathon (18) and Birdman (21) finished first, third and fourth on the stands' rail with Bravo Zolo (2) flying the flag for those drawn low in second. The year before that favoured those in the middle, with the field coming up the centre and Gabrial (15) leading home Mondialiste (6), Moohaarib (19) and What About Carlo (12).

All that would suggest that where the pace-setters are drawn will have more of an impact on the shape of the race than the presence of some sort of golden highway.

So where is the pace?

London Protocol and Grey Britain are race fit, having two starts already this year, and they are two who like to get on with it. They are drawn side-by-side in stalls 12 and 13 so, as long as they don't break and make a beeline for one rail or other, this edition of the Lincoln looks like it could come up the middle of the track. Hayadh, in stall 5, and Repercussion (6) are other likely leaders.

Big Country likes to sit prominently and he is in stall 16, while Ballard Down (17), Withernsea (18), Stamp Hill (20) and Not So Sleepy (22) add further strength to the middle-to-stands'-side.

Who does this benefit?

That all depends on whether the field breaks. If it stays as one mass the advantage is with hold-up horses drawn middle to high as, with the weight of forward-going types drawn to this side, the field could be drawn to the stands' side rail and there could be a pace collapse.

In such circumstances the well-backed ante-post favourite Fire Brigade and Henry Spiller's Leader Writer look to be favourably drawn, while Danny Tudhope, on Lord Glitters this year, would probably have to do what he did last year on Bravery (who is drawn one this time) and switch behind the field and then hope for a gap at the right time.

If, however, the field splits – and with Hayadh and Repercussion drawn low that is entirely possible – then we could end up with two races and two different pace biases.

In this circumstance I would expect a smaller group to race on the far rail with Lord Glitters (9) and Addeybb (10) a potential conflict point, as James Doyle on Addeybb would most benefit from going left and sitting on the tails of Hayadh and Repercussion – with just Kings Gift (4) and Via Via (8) for competition for the box seat – while Tudhope would probably prefer to go with the larger bunch towards the stands' side.

Addeybb is probably the horse to benefit most from the field splitting. If the field stays together he would be inconvenienced most, while the race will probably go the way of whichever horse, coming from midfield or deeper, gets luck in running and an uninterrupted path.

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