Why Alnadam's delayed Cheltenham raid might prove to be beautifully timed

Saturday: 2.00 Cheltenham
Paddy Power New Year's Day Handicap Chase (Grade 3) | 2m4f½f | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

Popular wisdom has it that the diet of Cheltenham handicap chases around this 2m4½f trip get weaker as the season goes on. Previous digs into the data have suggested that is only partially true. The quality, measured by the average of how far ahead of its mark a horse must be to make the first four, has tended to crater in this race before getting stronger up to and including the Paddy Power Plate in March.

That has a few knock-on effects for this particular race. It means that it may be a blessing that Alnadam missed the Racing Post Gold Cup last month, as he gets to run in an easier contest. It means Coole Cody and Zanza may be able to absorb their rises for finishing first and second three weeks ago if the softer conditions do not affect them too much – although there is reason to believe that it might.

It also means this is an easier race than the Paddy Power Gold Cup, in which Simply The Betts shaped much better than his finishing position of sixth, shared with Zanza. He is fit and 1lb lower in the weights now, while his run in the Many Clouds can be excused. He was held up over a longer distance and that had knock-on effects for his jumping, which was not as polished as usual.

Simply The Betts won at the Cheltenham Festival on soft a couple of years ago and will likely be ridden by Harry Cobden with the sort of intent that Bryony Frost displayed in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Soft conditions tend to make it even harder than usual for horses to make up ground from off the pace, so expect those ridden prominently – Coole Cody, Alnadam and Simply The Betts, but also the likes of Funambule Sivola and High Up In The Air – to be strongly represented in the finish.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

'Riders Onthe Storm looks the class horse in the race'

Riders Onthe Storm, winner of the Grade 1 Ascot Chase nearly two years ago, is arguably the class horse of the race.

He made an excellent start for Richard Hobson when failing by three and a quarter lengths to concede 14lb to Clan Legend at Aintree and his trainer is entitled to be upbeat about his prospects.

"He's in very good order," Hobson said. "The trip and ground should suit but he needs to put the record straight at Cheltenham – he's never enjoyed any luck round there. It was a great performance from him under top weight at Aintree. Coole Cody looks the one to beat. The Venetia [Williams] horse is very consistent, but beyond those two we look the class horse in the race."

Riders Onthe Storm out to put the record straight at Cheltenham for Richard HobsonCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

What they say

Venetia Williams, trainer of Funambule Sivola
It's his first taste of life at Cheltenham. It's difficult to find races for him as he's not quite able to take on the likes of Shishkin, so has to carry top weight in a good handicap.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Simply The Betts and Magic Saint
Going back down in trip on a track he likes will be much better for Simply The Betts. It got quite testing at Aintree and the race didn't suit him as it was a war of attrition. I still think he's a few pounds too high but we'll see. Magic Saint runs well at Cheltenham and I just hope the ground is not too soft. He has won on soft but always had slightly better form on better ground. We're putting the cheekpieces on to sharpen him up as he's been racing a bit lazily.

Evan Williams, trainer of Coole Cody
He's grand. He takes his racing incredibly well. He's hardly an improver at his age but he loves the track – it's definitely a help to him.

Philip Hobbs, trainer of Zanza
He should have a decent each-way chance. It's another competitive race but he ran very well last time. He has form on soft ground so that shouldn't be a problem.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Alnadam
We've been waiting for soft ground for him. He had a nice run at Haydock when the ground was too quick and he was in a very hot race. He goes there in great form.

Tom George, trainer of Espoir De Teillee
He's run some solid races. The trip round Cheltenham should suit him.

Gary Moore, trainer of A Toi Phil and High Up In The Air
They will both come on for the run.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Vienna Court
She won really well last time. It's another step up but she has a nice low weight.
Reporting by Richard Birch

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1.40 Musselburgh: 'He's a bit of an enigma' – Olly Murphy unsure what to expect from Strong Glance

2.10 Musselburgh: progressive Tommy's Oscar seeks hat-trick for in-form Hamilton team

2.20 Tramore: 'All the roads lead to Cheltenham' – Al Boum Photo poised for four-timer

2.35 Cheltenham: 'He's in the form of his life' – can Malzard strike again on Kansas City Chief?

2.40 Fairyhouse: festival clues galore as top mares Put The Kettle On, Elimay and Mount Ida clash

3.10 Cheltenham: 'He's always good fresh' – Relkeel Hurdle trainer quotes and big-race insight