'We believe he has enormous potential' - can another star emerge in the Prix du Jockey Club?

The bar to entry into the winner's circle for the Qatar Prix du Jockey Club (3.05) has been consistently high for the last half-decade, with the most recent five victors going on to land two Arcs, two Eclipses, an Irish Champion Stakes, an International, a Ganay, a Dubai Sheema Classic and a Saudi Cup between them.

It is a point worth bearing in mind when studying a field which at first glance may look to be light on proven ability.

There is a 6lb gap on adjusted Rating Post Ratings between the sixth-ranked Sunway and equal seventh-placed Look De Vega and Sosie. While arguments can be made for a few of those unexposed colts further down the list, there is a firm case for concentrating on the six that have already put up one or more notable performances.

If we are to get another superior Jockey Club winner, it looks likely to come from among the following: Fast Tracker, a seven-length Listed winner; Ghostwriter, who was unbeaten at two and a decent fourth in the 2,000 Guineas; Alcantor, Diego Velazquez and Ramadan, who were third, fourth and fifth in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains; and Sunway, who won at Group 1 level last year and whose recent racecourse gallop has his trainer convinced he is ready to take a big step forward from two mediocre performances this year.

Sunway: bids to give David Menuisier and Oisin Murphy a first Jockey ClubCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

The French handicapper has thrown in a seventh candidate in Atlast, whose Group 3 win in April has since been overshadowed by an inexplicably poor run in the Prix de Guiche.

Fast Tracker looks like he has the X factor, and the pursuit and subsequent purchase of him by Wathnan Racing underlines that opinion. James Doyle's mount is also drawn well in stall five.

Diego Velazquez looked a big danger until getting stall 11, and the draw has made Ghostwriter (two) and Alcantor (seven) more plausible rivals to Fast Tracker.

In an unusual situation for a modern Jockey Club whereby Jean-Claude Rouget looks an unlikely source of the winner, Andre Fabre presents three high-calibre candidates, with First Look perhaps best-suited to the task at hand after chasing home a live St James's Palace Stakes candidate in Darlinghurst last time.

Maybe we are due merely an average winner, but recent history suggests we are looking for a colt with a pretty high ceiling on his potential.

'We always viewed him as a French Derby horse'

Diego Velazquez has not commanded the same number of column inches as other graduates of Aidan O'Brien's remarkable two-year-old class of '23 but, ahead of the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster in October, he was being talked of as the main Derby rival to stablemate City Of Troy.

That turned into a non-event for the son of Frankel due to a lengthy delay caused by Battle Cry becoming distressed in the stall next door, and running on unsuitably deep ground.

Diego Velazquez: the sole Ballydole runner in the Prix du Jockey ClubCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Much more promising was his close fourth behind Metropolitan and Dancing Gemini in the Poule d'Essai on his comeback, while Chantilly's legendary ability to drain well will also be a plus for his chances.

O'Brien told a France Galop press call this week: "We thought a mile was as short as he wanted to go and that a mile and a quarter might be his ideal trip. Obviously he could get further, but we always viewed him as a French Derby horse more than anything else.

"We thought Chantilly would suit him; he has tactical speed, he stays and he's uncomplicated. He's a very good mover and so the better the ground, the better it would suit him."

Effect of the draw

Since the Jockey Club was cut to ten and a half furlongs in 2005, there has been a clear advantage to being drawn low, with only four of the 19 winners breaking from stall 11 or higher (from 130 qualifiers).

New Bay was the last to defy a high draw in 2015, and in a race where 3lb covers the top five on adjusted Racing Post Ratings, stall 11 for Diego Velazquez and, even worse, 15 for Ramadan, look potentially damaging to their chances.

Lope De Vega won from stall 20 in 2010 but generally a high draw is a hindranceCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Going latest

The morning penetrometer reading of 4.2 (holding) means the race will be run on the easiest surface since at least 2000, when Philip Robinson triumphed aboard the Michael Jarvis-trained Holding Court. Yet despite the rain failing to clear as forecast on Saturday and the track taking another 7.5 millimetres, the GoingStick reading remains within the range of good to soft at 6.7.

The opening three furlongs before the turn is the softest section of the course, while it is also soft on the sprint track between the five and six-furlong poles, as well as under the stands' rail for the final two furlongs (which is already past the winning post for the Classic). The forecast is largely dry but cool.

What they say

Jean-Bernard Roth, assistant to Jean-Claude Rouget, trainer of Grecian Storm and Arrow Eagle
Grecian Storm is a fighter and although the trip was on the short side in the Guiche, he showed he handles Chantilly well. He could surprise his connections. Arrow Eagle isn't like his brother [Ace Impact] physically or mentally. He's improving and there's still plenty to come from him in the future.

Christopher Head, trainer of Ramadan
Like many people I was surprised by the results of the first French Classics, but we weren't minded to change our plan of going for the Prix du Jockey Club with Ramadan. He's a good soldier who always shows up, and Aurelien Lemaitre knows him well.

Ramadan and Aurelien Lemaitre after the Prix de Fontainebleau

Andre Fabre, trainer of First Look, Alcantor and Sosie
First Look has done well. He's quite a big, backward colt with ability and he's very progressive, plus any ground will suit him. On paper, Alcantor is my best horse and the trip won't be a problem. Is he good enough to win? We'll see. Sosie is a very good-looking horse. If you can fault him at all, he maybe lacks some initial speed [when they start to sprint]. He's well drawn in one and he can break well and be handy.

David Menuisier, trainer of Sunway
He's definitely drawn where you want to be in the Jockey Club [in stall eight]. You need a bit of luck and for things to pan out the right way, but he's in good shape and we'll be hoping for the best. He's handled soft ground before but I just feel that, for such a big race, you'd love to run on the best surface you can.

Yann Lerner, joint-trainer of Look De Vega
A little bit more experience wouldn't have done him any harm, but he had a racecourse gallop at Chantilly last week and went very well. Everything has gone to plan and we're having a crack because we believe he has enormous potential.

Clive Cox, trainer of Ghostwriter
His training was very good ahead of the 2,000 Guineas, where he ran a super race to be fourth. He has a bit of knee action and I hope he'd cope [with soft ground], while he's stepping up in trip as well – those are the unknown factors, but I'm quite relaxed. I don't think he's complicated, he's very versatile and balanced.

Alex Pantall, trainer of Fast Tracker
He's a very easy ride. If you wanted to find a tiny fault with him, it's that he can take a couple of strides to get going when the race begins in earnest. Last time nobody wanted to go on, so we made the running, and he relaxed in front just fine. He moved really well up the straight during work on Tuesday and James Doyle was pretty taken with him.

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