Testing the theory: is it tougher to make up ground when the going is soft?

With extreme conditions set to prevail at Doncaster and Newbury on Saturday, it is a shade of odds-on that at some point in the afternoon you will hear it said that "it's hard to make up ground when it's soft".

Is it a truism or an old wives' tale? The tracking data gathered by Total Performance Data makes it possible to test the theory.

Using the tracked position of horses at a point roughly two-thirds of the way through the race to determine 'position' and using officially reported ground, it was attempted to get to the heart of the matter.

While sophisticated tracking methods were used to determine position, the best measure of success is an old favourite: percentage of rivals beaten. The results are pretty stark.

The main point to take, which will draw knowing nods from experienced race-readers, is that irrespective of ground it is generally a significant advantage to race prominently. Qualitative and quantitative impressions agree here. In Britain, where only a minority of races are evenly run, those near the front early on are by definition more likely to run optimal, even fractions.

A prominent racer on firmer ground (57 per cent of rivals beaten, on average) does slightly better than one on softer (54 per cent). Compare with the flipside and the main effect of ground becomes apparent.

On firmer ground, those held up do not perform terribly, beating 43 per cent of rivals. The 14 per cent gap between those ridden forcefully and patiently on firmer ground is much less than the 21 per cent that separates hold-up horses on soft ground (a sorry 33 per cent of rivals beaten) with those ridden prominently.

This is well worth remembering before placing any bets at Newbury or Doncaster on Saturday, or any soft-ground Flat meeting for that matter. It may not prove a bigger advantage to race handily on soft ground, but it is a much bigger disadvantage to be sat at the back of the field.

All data courtesy of Total Performance Data, whose tracking covers more than 20 courses in the UK and North America