Keith Melrose analyses a competitive running of the Grimthorpe

3.35 Doncaster
888Sport Grimthorpe Handicap Chase | 3m2f | 5yo+ | ITV4/SKY

The first thing to note about this year's Grimthorpe Chase is that its complexion seems likely to change from Friday evening to Saturday morning. Two of the 11 runners – Saint Xavier and 2017 winner Definitly Red – will run at Kelso 13 minutes earlier unless that meeting is called off.

That would not impact the weights, even though Definitly Red and Saint Xavier are the two highest-rated in the race. Per the BHA's handicapping rules, second-preference declarations are ignored for purposes of framing the weights. In short, Definitly Red would have to carry 12st 7lb if he runs, Saint Xavier 12st 1lb.

The Grimthorpe is usually treated as a stepping stone to a major spring handicap. The Last Samuri is an often-cited example, winning by ten lengths in 2016 before finishing second in the Grand National, but that route is pretty rare. At least as many go to the Scottish National, Wayward Prince notably doing the double in 2015.

Seven-year-old novice Worthy Farm has the right sort of profile for Ayr, or even Sandown. He has won well at Wincanton the last twice, the blinkers seemingly making the difference. Although it does not show up in the ratings, there was clear improvement between Boxing Day and his latest win, when he overcame the in-form The Kings Writ, who was best-placed throughout.

While Worthy Farm has the most attractive profile, plenty of others are in top form. Captain Chaos benefited from an aggressive ride when second in the Classic Chase seven weeks ago, with that short break a sensible move given the hard race he endured.

Fortified Bay has also been thriving, albeit at a lower level and for both of his recent wins he has been the beneficiary of a fierce pace up front. In theory at least, there is a chance of a contested pace here too, with Captain Chaos, Yalltari and Aaron Lad all regular prominent racers.
Keith Melrose

What they say

Venetia Williams, trainer of Yalltari
It's his first run for a long time. He had a nasty wound from his last run, which took ages to heal. Ideally, I wouldn't want too much of a test for him. He hasn't taken a lot of racing, so hopefully he'll crack on now.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Worthy Farm
The more it rains the better for him. He’s a progressive horse.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Captain Chaos
If his last run in the Classic Chase at Warwick wasn’t a career-best, it nearly was. It was a good run, but you never know with these stayers quite how they back up. I’ve given him plenty of time between his runs and he seems well, so he has got to have a chance.

Alan O’Keeffe, assistant to Jennie Candlish, trainer of Fortified Bay
He’s improving all the time and his jumping is getting better. It’s a shame the Eider was off, but this is the second plan. All the rain that’s forecast will suit him and he has a nice weight.

James Ewart, trainer of Ascot De Bruyere
He’s in good form and should like the track. The ground won’t be a problem and he has a nice weight. It’s a shame the Eider was off, but if he couldn’t go to Newcastle, I’d say Doncaster would be the next best thing.

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