'He's been crying out for a step up' - quotes and analysis on the EBF Final

Saturday: 1.50 Sandown
European Breeders' Fund Paddy Power "National Hunt" Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) | 2m4f | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

The EBF Final has a reputation for being effectively the first major novice handicap chase formline of the following season. That still holds to an extent, although it is worth noting that you want to be looking down the finishing order for some of the best chasing prospects.

That much has become obvious from recent winners. You have to go back five years to find a winner of this race that subsequently won a chase, and neither of the last two winners have even jumped a fence in public. Conversely, six of the 14 horses that Beauport beat in this race last year have since won at least one chase. A couple of others (Sam Barton and Road Senam, fourth and fifth respectively) have bettered their hurdles form over fences without winning.

This trend tells you that this race will provide form, and a replay, to pore over. It is not directly helpful in finding the winner, but does drop a heavy hint to focus on the here and now over long-term potential.

Unsurprisingly, topweight Knappers Hill is out on his own in terms of achievement to date. He won the Aintree bumper last year and got minor money behind Jonbon in a Grade 2 novice hurdle in December. His sixth-placed finish in the Betfair Hurdle last time was perfectly respectable and suggested that he might be ready for this step up in trip.

Only two other runners have been tried in a black type race over hurdles. Jerrash picked up third in the five-runner Sidney Banks at Huntingdon last month and has since snuck in another run to qualify for big handicaps. Surrey Quest was pulled up in January's Leamington at Warwick, having been sent off at 4-1 for that Grade 2.

If Sandown gets something at the lower end of the forecast rain, it could push the balance further towards the less stoutly-bred types. An exception to that would arguably be Kingofthewest. He came from the pointing field and on his sole start there finished second on good to yielding. The winner is yet to run under rules, but the third and fourth have both found a level over hurdles in the 110s.

Kingofthewest has run three times over hurdles, winning over 2m3f (at sharp Taunton) and winning and finishing second around 2m. The minimum trip has looked too short for him, but has served the purpose of getting him qualified for big handicaps and his mark of 120 means he needs only to improve by a modest amount for a greater test of stamina.

The Pipe yard is synonymous with the Imperial Cup on this card, but they might have some joy in the second-biggest hurdle on the card this year.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Thunder well equipped to strike for Murphy

Olly Murphy's first major success as a trainer came in handicap company and therefore it is always worth noting when his horses go up in grade.

He fields Thunder Rock, who has already taken the scalp of a decent horse as he beat subsequent Lanzarote Hurdle winner Cobblers Dream in a novice hurdle at Wetherby in November. He has won twice since, most recently in handicap company at Huntingdon.

"He's in good form and looks progressive," Murphy said. "Hopefully, we've still got a few pounds to play with will but he'll need that. Hopefully, he's got a really strong each-way chance."

Owners the McNeill family and Ian Dale will be hoping the six-year-old can give them something to celebrate ahead of Tritonic's County Hurdle bid on Friday, and Murphy believes Thunder Rock is well equipped for the demands of a big-field handicap.

He added: "He's a hardy type who should handle the hustle and bustle of the race, we're looking forward to running him and he'll make a lovely chaser next year."

What they say

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Knappers Hill and Complete Unknown
Knappers Hill ran very well at Newbury. He's been crying out for a step up to two and a half miles and good to soft ground will be perfect for him. Complete Unknown has also been running really well. Any rain would help him. He has a nice each-way chance.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Surrey Quest
His jumping went to pieces in the middle of the race at Warwick, but he's in good form now. He's got a tough task with a lot of weight and that's why we're claiming off him. Nathan [Brennan] won on him and he was really impressive at Doncaster, but it's a hard race to win.

Gary Moore, trainer of Jerrash
I think he's badly handicapped on 130 in what looks quite a strong race. Any more rain would be appreciated.

Richard Spencer, trainer of Peejaybee
He's been taking his racing well and he's been very consistent. After winning at Sandown we had to get him qualified, so we had to go to Sedgefield over an inadequate trip. He's going to have to improve again to win a race like this.

Colin Tizzard, trainer of Triple Trade
It's a very strong handicap. Any rain will benefit him. He's surprised us all so far and will continue to improve.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Hometown Hero, Our Jet and Jet Plane
We've had the race in mind for these three for some time now. I think the track will suit Hometown Hero well, he's a year older than most of them. It took Our Jet most of the straight to get going at Wetherby last time, so we think he stays. Jet Plane ran really well in a good race at Leicester and his season is coming together nicely.

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Marble Sands
He was second to Kingofthewest at Taunton and that rival has won again since. He's a lovely horse and he deserves to take his chance.

Venetia Williams, trainer of Georges Saint
Normally I'd find a novice hurdle for him somewhere but it's not often he'd be in the weights of an £80,000 race, so I thought I'd let him take his chance. We're going with hope rather than confidence.
Reporting by Maddy Playle

Read more Saturday race previews:

'He's been crying out for a step up' - quotes and analysis on the EBF Final

'One step at a time' for highly progressive four-year-old La Tihaty

Henderson believes conditions will prove ideal for hot favourite Balco Coastal

'She's a different horse now to when she won at Cheltenham'

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