Ground could be the deciding factor in high-quality mares' bumper

Who handles the testing conditions best will be the key to winning this bumper and there is some guesswork involved for punters because a lot of the runners are unproven on heavy ground.

Casa No Mento isn't one of them. She won her point-to-point at Bangor on heavy and made short work of the opposition on her bumper debut at Hereford in January on soft going. She is by Flat performer Casamento, but her dam is by German-bred sire Manduro and that is another indication that conditions will suit.

Jumps runners with a German-bred sire on the dam's side of their pedigree are 14-78 (18 per cent) on heavy in Britain and Ireland since the start of last year.

Mercian Omen showed lots of promise when second on her debut on heavy ground at Wetherby in November but the times suggested the ground wasn't anywhere near as soft as the official description that day, so it may not be wise to assume she will handle conditions.

Her dam Mariah Rollins acted on soft, but lots of her offspring have been better suited by good going including the classy Pendra, who produced most of his best form on decent ground.

The one we know will handle heavy is Saint Bibiana. Times confirmed the official description of heavy to be spot on when she won at Uttoxeter in December and the runner-up has franked the form by winning since.

Saint Bibiana showed a good attitude to hold on that day and, while she might lack the potential of some of these rivals, she looks the more finished article at this stage of her career. That could prove crucial in what is likely to be a severe test of stamina.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Bumper benefits

Nigel Twiston-Davies may be best known for winning two Grand Nationals, a Cheltenham Gold Cup and many other top chases, but his runners in bumpers should not be ignored.

He is the last British trainer to have landed the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, with Ballyandy in 2016, and has taken the equivalent event at Aintree four times.

And Earlofthecotswolds progressed so well after winning a Market Rasen bumper that he ended up collecting a £150,000 race on All-Weather Championships finals day at Newcastle last spring.

There is barely a sixth of that money on offer this time but Twiston-Davies hopes this Listed event is an ideal opportunity for Casa No Mento, who bolted up by 12 lengths on her debut at Hereford in January.

"She's pretty good," he said. "It was a very good performance at Hereford and I'm not concerned about the ground."

What they say

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Dontyawantme
She's a lovely mare who ran very well first time at Newcastle and then won a good race at Huntingdon. She deserves her chance in this.

Harry Fry, trainer of Goodtimecrew
She put up a really good performance on her debut considering she gave her 17 rivals a fair start. Mentally she's taken the race well and physically seems to have come forward as well. The ground is an unknown but that will apply to a lot of them.

Lucy Wadham, trainer of Jeune Belle
She made a good start at Wetherby and it was a nice education. She's an out-and-out galloper and will love the conditions.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Larchmont Lass
If she goes on the ground she’ll run well.

Kim Bailey, trainer of Saint Bibiana
She's got a good each-way chance. She'll love the ground, is a strong stayer and has loads of experience.

Read these next:

Can Unforgotten remain unbeaten in headgear and secure his Lincoln spot?   

Will Angel Bleu's class count? Keith Melrose examines the key runners in the Lady Wulfruna Stakes  

Introducing our brilliant Cheltenham Festival team - get full access now with 50% off for three months  

Do you want £200+ of free bets for Cheltenham? Racing Post have got the best offers, all in one place. Visit racingpost.com/freebets to find out more.