Graeme Rodway thinks Paul Nicholls has found a valuable edge for the Lanzarote

Ladbrokes Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Listed) | 2m5f | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

How much is a professional jockey worth, in pounds, compared to a conditional rider? It’s difficult to quantify.

To compensate for an initial lack of experience at the beginning of their careers, conditional jockeys are entitled to a weight allowance when riding against professional jockeys. The claim depends on how many winners the conditional has ridden.

For as long as I can remember conditionals have been able to claim 7lb, 5lb and 3lb, and the current rules are 7lb until they have won 20 races, 5lb until they have won 40 races and 3lb until they have won 75 races. But how did we come to these figures and are they fair?

For example, conditional rider Kevin Brogan has partnered 15 winners from just 66 mounts this season for a 23 per cent strike-rate. Even if you add in all his rides since the start of 2020 his impact value comes out at 2.02. That means he is striking at more than double the average and his actual/expected winners figure is also favourable at 1.02. He is profitable to follow.

Those figures are better than all the professionals in this race have achieved in the same time, yet Brogan can claim 7lb off his mount Amour De Nuit’s back. It seems generous.

It hasn’t taken Paul Nicholls long to cotton on and Amour De Nuit will be only Brogan’s second ride for the champion trainer, who appears to have made a conscious effort this season to take advantage of up-and-coming jockeys who are able to claim.

Nicholls has already put Angus Cheleda on five winners from 11 runners (45 per cent, +£17.50 to £1 level stakes) this campaign and is likely to build up a similarly successful partnership with Brogan.

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Polish, Geralamo Cordano and Misty Whisky are three others who have conditional riders, claiming an allowance, taking over from professionals and ex-Nicholls disciple Harry Fry has booked Lorcan Murtagh on Misty Whisky.

She will race off just 9st 13lb when Murtagh’s claim is taken into account and the rider has one win, two seconds and two thirds from nine rides for Fry.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Solo and Amour De Nuit
Solo is up in trip but I still think he’s four or five pounds too high. He’s carrying top weight in a handicap, which doesn’t make life easy. I think the extra trip will help but you still won’t see the best of him until he jumps a fence. Amour De Nuit ran very well on his two starts and keeps going up in the weights. I just thought seven pounds off his back would be handy. He’s not an obvious winner but he’ll be there or thereabouts.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of The Cashel Man and Glynn
The Cashel Man is a great character and you never quite know what to expect, but when things go right for him he's well capable. If the ground isn't too slow he can go well. Glynn is very unexposed and I thought he ran a good race first time out, when he was having only his third ever run. He's short on experience for a race like this, but he's come on a lot for the run.

The Cashel Man: 'A great character'Credit: Alan Crowhurst / Getty Images

Olly Murphy, trainer of Hunters Call
He’s in good nick and hopefully the step up in trip will suit him. We’ll ride him very cold and try and have one run with him. He’s in good form and he deserves to win a nice race.

Lucy Wadham, trainer of The White Mouse
She hasn't done much wrong and she's in good form. It's hard to win three in a row and she's creeping up the handicap and now running in a hugely competitive race after winning two mares handicaps.

Nicky Richards, trainer of Big Bad Bear
He was a bit careful and deliberate over fences, so we went back over hurdles and won nicely at Doncaster. You like to go into these big handicaps with an improver, and I'm hoping the handicapper doesn't quite know all about him yet.

Shang Tang: a potential improver for Emma LavelleCredit: Mark Cranham

Emma Lavelle, trainer of Boreham Bill and Shang Tang
Shang Tang was very impressive at Ascot and is in great order. He fell at the first at Wincanton, but his form was franked there by the Ascot runner-up and he's a potential improver still off 130. He's got plenty of ability. Boreham Bill ran an absolute stormer back over hurdles at Kempton last time. He probably wouldn't want it too soft, but Kempton will be the best ground we get anywhere and he definitely has a chance.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of One True King
He's not done a lot wrong and he's going to be suited by the step up up in trip as you can see from the way he fought back up the hill when he was second over two miles at Cheltenham. I'm more than happy with him.

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Polish
He's in great form. He ran very well at Cheltenham last time where he was a bit unlucky. We put him away afterwards with the Lanzarote in mind.

Charlie Longsdon, trainer of Castle Robin
He's an unexposed novice who has done nothing but improve, so he has the right sort of profile for the race.

Kim Bailey, trainer of Shinobi
The weights going up has definitely helped but I think he's rather badly handicapped and probably outclassed.

Philip Hobbs, trainer of Everglow
He's been very green and backward, so I think there's scope for more improvement. I just hope he can cope with such a big field and the likely fast pace as he could be on a fair mark.

Harry Fry, trainer of Misty Whisky
She's won both of her races this season and has just sneaked into the bottom of what is obviously a very competitive handicap. She should give a good account of herself.
Reporting by Graham Dench

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