Dreamer rightly Marathon favourite but must prove he can handle the track

2.00 Lingfield
Betway All-Weather Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes | 2m | 4yo+ | ITV4/Sky

The difference between Lingfield and Britain's other all-weather tracks extends to staying trips; in fact the stats might even tell you that those held up have a better record over two miles than most shorter distances.

That is likely nothing more than a reflection of the pootle-and-pounce nature of the races (how many front-runners are said to have a notable turn of foot?), but it has some significance to the Marathon final. Of the seven runners, only two have course experience: Amtiyaz was second here on debut, while outsider of the field Island Brave is two from five at Lingfield but has not run at the track in over three years.

Favourite Rainbow Dreamer absolutely deserves his place at the head of the market and would be a warm order if you could treat all-weather form as a single entity. However, his best recent efforts have been at Kempton and, primarily, his fifth in the Northumberland Plate. A big-field handicap at Newcastle and small-field conditions race at Lingfield share only the colour of the surface. At least the trip is the same.

It seems unlikely that jockeys will be looking at each other on breaking from the stalls. There are a couple of front-runners in the field, Australis and Ranch Hand, with the latter perhaps the most likely to set the pace as Jack Mitchell has tended to lead with Australis for reasons of opportunism above all else.

It is worth underlining the progress Amtiyaz has to make, given he is priced up like a leading contender. His progress has been steady, as was the manner in which he asserted his clear authority at Kempton last time. That was off a mark of 89 on his eighth start. While he is clearly the improver in the field, the extent to which he is even that is being overplayed by odds short of 5-1 with some firms. Winning this would take a leap forward, not just a step.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

What they say

Roger Varian, trainer of Australis
He's been trained for this race. He had a short break after winning at Wolverhampton and has freshened up nicely. He's never run at Lingfield before but has very consistent form on the all-weather surfaces. I don't know if he's good enough to win as he clearly needs a career-best, but I can see him running a big race.

Heather Main, trainer of Island Brave
I think he needed the run last time and he's all set to go now. When he won his fast-track qualifier at Newcastle in December he beat horses rated a stone higher than him and there's a few in there who are pretty decent, but I think he's got a nice chance. He likes Lingfield, he's won there twice so we're hopeful.

Island Brave: is two from five at LingfieldCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Alan King, trainer of Rainbow Dreamer
This has been his target all winter. He had a proper break at the end of last season and he's improved with every run back. It's amazing to see him running to the level he is at the age he is. The one unknown is whether he'll handle Lingfield as he's never run there. He's the top-rated horse and I hope and think that he'll run very well.

John Gosden, joint-trainer of Amtiyaz
He's a bit out of it on the ratings, but he's been consistent and we've waited for this race for a while. He's pretty versatile and should give a good account.
Reporting by James Stevens

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