Christmas Hurdle: incisive punting analysis, vital trainer views and key stats

2.30 Kempton
Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle | Grade 1 | 2m | 4yo+ | ITV/RTV

Punters' first wish for the Christmas Hurdle has already been granted. In the last five years we have seen favourites for the race go off at 1-4, 2-11, 1-4 and 4-11. It is possible to get prohibitive shorties beat, Buveur D'Air was turned over last year, but many of us would rather spend an extra ten minutes trying to solve the novices' handicap chase (it is a cracker this year, by the way) than investing in such races.

This year's Christmas Hurdle is different. Favourite Fusil Raffles is a four-year-old on the way up whose only Grade 1 experience was a win in juvenile company at Punchestown in the spring. He faces nine rivals, making for a huge field compared to recent years. This will be the first time this century that standard each-way terms on the race would pay three places.

While experience is not on the side of Fusil Raffles, he does have course form. He made his British debut in the Adonis Hurdle at this track in February and fully justified the hype that saw him sent off as the 4-1 favourite, belying greenness to win an admittedly weak contest hard held.

Fusil Raffles: a top four-year-old last termCredit: Patrick McCann

Course form is an important consideration for defending champion Verdana Blue. She has the speed to compete on the Flat and did not get home in a soft-ground Champion Hurdle in March, but at flat tracks on better ground she is lethal. She has just one of those factors in her favour this time, with the wet winter leaving Kempton unusually testing. If the going is still soft by race time, it will be a negative for a mare whose record on soft or heavy going reads 605.

Nicky Henderson is also responsible for Epatante, who leaps into Grade 1 company after belatedly realising her promise at Newbury on her reappearance. That was a traditionally strong handicap and she made a mockery of a mark of 137. As that implies, more steps need to be taken now she is up in grade, although with her mares' allowance the required ten-year average on Racing Post Ratings is just 157, 7lb higher than her current figure.

Three of the field – Ballyandy, Ch'tibello and Elixir De Nutz – ran in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham. That is of no great concern, though, given they were only truly racing for three or four furlongs on that occasion. Ballyandy is the longest-priced runner of the three, but he came within a neck of winning the International. While the form is shaky, you cannot fluke the sort of change of pace he showed, so there is a temptation to say he should be taken a bit more seriously than odds of around 20-1 imply.

Two more are worthy of brief mention. Getaway Trump, who has not taken to fences as might have been hoped, returns to hurdling with his form in this sphere strengthened. At Sandown in April he beat Harambe, who has since won the Greatwood Hurdle off a 4lb higher mark.

Silver Streak is a standing dish in top two-mile hurdles these days and has an admirable habit of getting into the places, which he even managed in the Champion Hurdle. He is an each-way option in a race which, for once, gives punters options in that regard.

Keith Melrose, betting editor

Stats that matter

Nicky Henderson's form figures in the Christmas Hurdle in the last ten years reads 311161435112 and the trainer runs Verdana Blue, Fusil Raffles and Epatante.

Silver Streak has finished in front of Verdana Blue three times, but never won on those occasions.

Silver Streak's trainer Evan WilliamsCredit: Edward Whitaker

22 per cent – this is Fergal O'Brien's strike-rate with new recruits in the last five seasons. The trainer is responsible for the former Willie Mullins-trained Quick Grabim.

The aforementioned Quick Grabim struck after 260 days off last year, so perhaps his absence of 200 days will not be an issue.

What the trainers say

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Ballyandy
I was very pleased with him dropping back to two miles when he was second in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham last time. The more rain the better, but hopefully it's soft enough. You'd be happier if he'd had longer since Cheltenham, but I'm sure he'll be fine.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Ch'tibello
It was a good run at Cheltenham last time, he was just a bit slow at the last when he needed a better stride but we had to give away 4lb and at the weights he comes out of the race as the best horse. I've been very happy with him since, if I wasn't I wouldn't be running him here. It's level weights and very competitive but I don't think there is a standout horse in the race. I'm keen to have a go and he's in great form.

Colin Tizzard: trainer saddles Elixir De NutzCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Joe Tizzard, assistant to Colin Tizzard, trainer of Elixir De Nutz
He has certainly tightened up for the run at Cheltenham. In an ideal world this would be a week later, but there isn't much else for him for a while. He ran with the choke out at Cheltenham and Harry Cobden wasn't hard on him after that. We'll probably ride him a little bit differently this time, cover him up, switch him off and try to teach him something.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Fusil Raffles, Epatante and Verdana Blue
The big difference between this year and last year is the ground for Verdana. She is ground-dependent, but we've got to get a race under her belt. There are lots of other things we can do and I've got all sorts of ideas for her if this ground stays wet all winter. We could easily go travelling and there are some lucrative Flat races in faraway places where she'd get her ground. She's in very good form and there's nowhere else to go, but it will be softer than she'd like. The reason she beat Buveur D'Air last year was because it was unseasonably fast ground, and it's unseasonably wet ground this year.

Fusil Raffles has come on a ton for the Elite Hurdle. All of ours needed a run then and he needed it badly, but luckily we got away with it. He's improved dramatically since and this has always been the plan.

Epatante is a progressive mare and I thought she was one of our best chances at the Cheltenham Festival last season, but she disappointed. She bounced back and was very impressive in the Gerry Feilden, for which she got a huge hike from the handicapper.

As much as it was tempting to go for that big handicap hurdle at Ascot on Saturday, Hughie Morrison's horse [Not So Sleepy] was so impressive and I dread to think how much weight we'd have given him, so maybe this is the right way to go. It's ambitious, but we're going to try to see how good she is.

Getaway Trump: performed with credit as a novice hurdler last seasonCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Getaway Trump
He has been struggling a fraction with his jumping of fences on testing ground, and as it's now Christmas and he hasn't yet won a novice chase I thought we would have another go over hurdles. It's worth a shot and he's in good shape. If he is competitive we might consider staying over hurdles for the rest of the season. There are some real good races we could look at in the spring without even having to think about the Champion Hurdle.

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Quick Grabim
We've had him a while now and he's a very straightforward horse. We're starting off where we think is best, which is over two miles, and we'll make a plan from then. He schooled well for Paddy [Brennan] this week and went very well – he is definitely talented. He wouldn't be too dissimilar to Khyber Kim, who I was familiar with at Nigel Twiston-Davies's.

Evan Williams, trainer of Silver Streak
It's a very competitive race and it'll be very tough to win as there are plenty in this all around the same rating. He ran very well when third in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle last time, but the second horse [Buveur D'Air] and him were given bad rides and the winner [Cornerstone Lad] was given a good ride. Our horse ran well in the ground and if you'd said we'd be third in the race on that ground I'd have taken it. I can't be disappointed to finish third in a Grade 1 and he ran well before that when winning at Kempton.

Reporting by James Burn

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