Can Desert Order improve Charlie Appleby's impressive strike-rate with Chelmsford success?

It’s easy to take one look at this race and think that a 27 per cent strike-rate for Charlie Appleby at Chelmsford in the last five seasons is something special, but in reality the stable has been operating at 29 per cent overall in that period. It’s therefore not out of the ordinary.

Nevertheless, Appleby has a big chance with Desert Order, who has been gelded since his last victory at Newmarket in October 2022 and runs off a mark 3lb higher than when winning that day. The big question is whether he can reproduce his best on his all-weather debut after a long absence.

Appleby's runners are usually fit after a break and Desert Order's pedigree gives hope that the surface won’t be a problem because he is a son of Dubawi and the leading sire’s progeny have an 18 per cent strike-rate at Chelmsford in the last five seasons.

Roger Varian is one trainer who does have a higher strike-rate (22 per cent) at Chelmsford than he does overall (20 per cent) in recent years and he runs hat-trick-seeking Fantastic Fox. 

Fantastic Fox is proven on the all-weather and at this track, but the course-and-distance winner has never won off a mark this high, for all that he has competed off stiffer ratings.

No trainer comes into the race in better form than Jane Chapple-Hyam and she saddles Lord Bertie, who is another who was last seen on turf and arrives unproven on the all-weather.

It’s a tough task to improve one out of the William Haggas yard, but Chapple-Hyam shows a profit of £24.73 to follow blind at Chelmsford in recent seasons, so it could prove significant that she chooses this track for Lord Bertie to make his debut for the stable after 85 days off.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

Daniel Kubler, joint-trainer of Helm Rock
He put together a great record on the all-weather this year. We’re keen to aim him at the all-weather finals, so this is the first step to qualifying. He’s had a short break since Champions Day and this will set him up nicely for a race at Newcastle on January 1.

Jane Chapple-Hyam, trainer of Lord Bertie
He's settled in nicely since we've had him and we're just popping down the road for this to see where we are with him. He's trained well and I'm happy with him. It's his first run on the all-weather, but he's handled the all-weather surfaces in Newmarket, so fingers crossed he's in the shake-up.

Alastair Donald, racing manager to King Power Racing, owners of Fantastic Fox
He seems in a very good place at the moment after dropping back to a mile, and seems to love the all-weather. He's finally settling much better with age. It's hard to assess the Godolphin horse [Desert Order], who must be okay if they've kept hold of him, but I think we're the one to beat unless that horse is way ahead of his mark.
Reporting by James Burn

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