Tom Segal: why Ballydoyle may have a better Arc prospect than Auguste Rodin

The week following Royal Ascot always feels a bit like after the Lord Mayor's Show, but that seemed magnified about ten times over this year.

That might have been because Ascot was so good and what was to come was always going to be less exhilarating, but I cannot help feeling that the Northumberland Plate is not the race it once was, or that Auguste Rodin was extremely underwhelming in the Irish Derby.

All-weather racing has never done it for me, so I realise that I was always going to be biased against the Plate once it switched from turf to that surface. I also know that John and Thady Gosden love the track and run some of his best horses there. For example, Enable and Palace Pier won at Newcastle before going on to stardom, and only recently Coppice trialled for the Sandringham with a win at that venue.

Clearly it is a good surface that is easy on horses, but aesthetically it does not resonate with me and the end of the Plate always seems to me like the horses are running in quicksand.

I am not sure Auguste Rodin was running in a swamp at the Curragh, but he certainly did not show the electric turn of foot that he had done at Epsom and I always think that the Curragh suits really strong stayers given how far they get racing from home. It is hard for those that quicken to show how good they really are.

Auguste Rodin (left): was not impressive when winning the Irish Derby according to someCredit: Patrick McCann

I will never forget Troy and Shergar powering clear or Generous and St Jovite putting up other brilliant performances in the race, but they were really strong gallopers and I do not think the track played to Auguste Rodin's strengths at all.

He will be at his best over a mile and a quarter off a strong pace, rather than having to slog it out against the stayers as he did on Sunday. Races like the Juddmonte International and the Irish Champion Stakes will be where we get the true reflection of how good Auguste Rodin really is.

I would not really fancy him in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on soft ground and it could be that the Coolmore team have a better option for that in the recent St James's Palace Stakes winner Paddington.

The fact that his team were talking about stepping him up in trip for the Eclipse on Saturday suggests that they see his future over middle-distances and as talked about last week on pedigree, he will have no problems staying a mile and a quarter and probably a mile and half too.

Siyouni should not really breed a mile and half winner, but what he does do is put plenty of class into his stock. At the end of the day, class triumphs over all the other factors and Paddington has more of it than any other three-year-old around.

The Gosdens love a handicap plan – and could have the John Smith's Cup winner

Hannibal used to say in the 1980s TV show The A Team 'I love it when a plan comes together', and I really like target trainers who have one for a horse and build them up to a crescendo for a big day.

The Gosdens are the top of the crop when it comes to this and while it does not always go as they expect, it is pretty clear if you are a fan of that operation of what they are trying to achieve.

Coppice was a good example of that in the Sandringham recently and while that was probably Plan B – they might have thought she was good enough for the 1,000 Guineas at the start of the season – I do think that she is going to end up being a big threat to the likes of Tahiyra as the season goes on.

Like Soul Sister and Mostabshir, she was not ready for her trial and disappointed, but they built her back up and she was one of the more impressive winners of the royal meeting.

It was surely significant that they kept Peace Man in training as an unraced four-year-old. After a couple of low key starts, he is now thriving and hacked up off a mark of 93 at Newmarket last week.

He will be well handicapped in the John Smith's Cup at York following that, but he is going to prove to be better than a handicapper by the end of the season.

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