'I think he'll let down odds-on backers at Kempton' - big-race festive views

Welcome to the Punting Club! Unlike most clubs there's no joining fee or annual charge, and the only criterion for being part of the gang is simple: an appreciation for big-race punting and an enthusiasm for chewing over the big talking points.

Here, Punt regulars Tom Collins, Maddy Playle and Robbie Wilders (Punting Club membership numbers #1, #2 and #3) answer your questions on the Christmas racing action.

Ahoy Senor or Bravesmangame in the Kauto Star Novices' Chase on Boxing Day (1.55 Kempton)? Sam Toghill

Robbie I'm confident Ahoy Senor is the better horse and will beat Bravemansgame again. He was much too good for him in the Sefton Novices' Hurdle when they last met and that seven-length victory was achieved on just his second start over hurdles – it was Bravemansgame's sixth. Ahoy Senor only made his debut in January and has come so far in such a short period of time. Bravemansgame has achieved less over hurdles and fences on RPRs than Ahoy Senor and I'm surprised he is odds-on for their next showdown. This is the most exciting horse to emerge from the north in many years and I think the market will flip-flop.

Tom Although Ahoy Senior and Bravemansgame are two of the best novice chasers currently in running in Great Britain, this race doesn't appeal to me from a punting point of view – there are 76 races on Boxing Day so I won't be rushing to play in a match race where it's basically evens each of two. However, if Bravemansgame is going to reverse the Sefton form with Ahoy Senor, I think it will happen in this race. His jumping technique should suit the Kempton test while his Scottish-trained rival is yet to win on a right-handed track.

Maddy I'm the last one to answer this so it must mean I have the deciding vote! It's a really tough one. Arguably Ahoy Senor should be favourite, as he trounced Bravemansgame at Aintree and recorded a 1lb higher RPR [than his rival did at Haydock] at Newbury. However, Paul Nicholls is adamant his top prospect wasn't at his best towards the end of last season. I think this test will suit Bravemansgame more, and he is at this stage the more finished article, but I think Ahoy Senor is the superior horse. Ultimately, my head says Bravemansgame, but my heart says Ahoy Senor could blow the race to bits – and I hope he does.

Give us a hot favourite you think will be beaten over Christmas. Daniel Nogher

Robbie Aside from Bravemansgame, who I think will let down odds-on backers at Kempton, I want to oppose A Plus Tard in the Savills Chase (2.20 Leopardstown) on December 28. I'm a massive fan of his and have already backed him for the Gold Cup, but at odds-on he doesn't make any appeal for this and surely Delta Work is the bet at 10-1 each-way. Of the 12 runners entered, three are set to run in the King George and a couple of others have the option of the 2m Grade 1 at Leopardstown. The final field might have fewer than eight runners and I can't imagine Delta Work's double-figure price lasting. He has won three Grade 1s at this track, is remarkably still only eight years old and produced his best seasonal return yet when fourth to Frodon at Down Royal. He always takes a run to sharpen up and I think he will give A Plus Tard a lot to think about.

Tom I'm happy to lay Epatante in the Christmas Hurdle (2.30 Kempton, Boxing Day). The 2020 Champion Hurdle winner has had an identical preparation as last year by taking in the Fighting Fifth before coming to Kempton. However, I wasn't overly impressed with her finishing effort in the Newcastle Grade 1 – it was considerably worse than when she careered away from Sceau Royal 12 months ago – and it's hard to forget that she lost at 1-5 in this race last year. Not So Sleepy, who dead-heated with Epatante in the Fighting Fifth, is a worthy opponent, while Soaring Glory and Tritonic shouldn't be written off.

Epatante: no certainty at KemptonCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Maddy It's more fun to be brave, isn't it? I'll go with Ferny Hollow. I wasn't as impressed as most people by his chasing debut at Punchestown, where he appeared to screw in the air at a number of his fences despite getting an easy lead and making his own pace. The field also omitted three obstacles down the back, so it was hardly a demanding test first time out. Riviere D'Etel gets 13lb, has more experience and could put him under pressure with her front-running style early doors, while some of the others should also come forward from their chasing debuts.

Considering his last two attempts in the King George VI Chase (3.05 Kempton) have resulted in him being pulled up, do you think Lostintranslation should be aimed at the race? Russell Collins

Robbie I think so as there were credible reasons for both non-completions. Providing he stays sound this time, I could see him showing up well for a long way. He wouldn't be my selection in the race, however, as I expect Clan Des Obeaux to claim a third success in the race. The hard race he endured in last season's Betfair Chase plus the easy lead granted to Frodon are credible reasons for his defeat in last season's running. A different preparation this time can work the oracle. I'm most wary of Asterion Forlonge, who was travelling like the winner in the John Durkan before falling three out on his return. However, I'm not sure if he would have found that much off the bridle at Punchestown and he is prone to jumping errors.

Tom There are certainly reasons for concern – perhaps most importantly that he tends to jump much better on left-handed tracks – but it's worth noting that he had a breathing issue in 2019 and he burst a blood vessel last year. The King George is the mid-season showpiece 3m chase in Britain and, if you have a horse of Lostintranslation's calibre, it is hard to bypass such an event. His 1965 Chase victory on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot was sparkling so it will be interesting to see if he can back up that performance.

Maddy I've always been a big fan of Lostintranslation, and as the lads have touched upon he's had excuses the two times he's been beaten in the King George. However, this year's race has a fair bit of depth to it, and for all I think he can show up well for a long way, he'd need a career-best effort to win. I'd say a price of 11-1 fairly summarises his chances.

If there was any horse over the Christmas period to back in one of the big races, who would they be? Jason O'Brien

Robbie If he turns up I'd make Klassical Dream a good thing in the Christmas Hurdle (1.45 Leopardstown) on Tuesday. He has clearly been tough to train, but produced a performance right out of the top drawer at Punchestown in the spring on his first try at 3m following a 487-day break. His ability to run exceptionally well fresh means you'd have no worries backing him first time out in quite a weak division. I just want to see him declared before parting with any cash. He missed his intended reappearance in the Hatton's Grace in November and it wouldn't surprise me if he didn't run.

Klassical Dream: a good thing if he runs at Leopardstown next weekCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Tom Depends what races you think are big, Jason! I'll be backing Chantry House at around 11-2 in the King George (3.05 Kempton on Sunday) as he has the potential to become the new British star in this division. However, my best bet of the Christmas period is Danny Kirwan in the 2m4½f handicap chase (1.20 Kempton). I know it's not a Graded race, but it'll be regarded as such in my household if the selection comes out on top! He ran with great promise in a hot race at Cheltenham last time and will be well suited by the return to Kempton. Five of his six best performances over hurdles came on right-handed flat tracks, and he should get a good pace to chase.

Maddy He's be too short for me to be wading into at 4-9 (he will doubtless make it into many people's multiples) but I don't think Energumene will be beaten in the Paddy's Rewards Club Chase (1.10 Leopardstown). I'll aim to add my best bet to this once the declarations are out – like TC, I also think Danny Kirwan will run a huge race – but if not perhaps consider supporting him ante-post for the Champion Chase.

One horse I cannot wait to see over Christmas is Ferny Hollow in the Racing Post Novice Chase (2.20 Leopardstown) on Sunday. He looks to have a lot of gears, and that's backed up by his hurdles form. I can see him becoming a superstar. What are the panel's views? Lee Wainwright

Robbie I'm in agreement. Ferny Hollow is the only horse to have beaten both Bob Olinger and Appreciate It under rules and looked really good on his chase debut when beating the smart Coeur Sublime. He's entitled to come on for that and, while he'll do well to give 13lb to the in-form four-year-old Riviere D'Etel, I think he's more than up to the task. The Arkle looks the weakest of the three Cheltenham Festival novice chases right now, and I could see him going off a short price for that on the day. He could be a superstar.

Tom Ferny Hollow has always been regarded as one of the best young talents in Willie Mullins' Closutton yard, but is evidently difficult to train. He's not the easiest ride, either. Nevertheless, he has already taken the scalps of Appreciate It and Bob Olinger and battled back powerfully on his chase debut at Punchestown earlier this month. I think he will continue his winning sequence.

Maddy I've answered this question above. I respect he's a horse of immense ability, but he's far from straightforward and fences pose a new set of challenges. I don't like to get carried away by these horses too early unless I can help it. Personally, I'm more excited by Ahoy Senor and Bravemansgame at Kempton.

Any thoughts on the Welsh National (2.50 Chepstow, December 27)? It would be a great achievement if Evan Williams could repeat the feat with Secret Reprieve this year, but I really fancy Hold That Taught. Gary Slater

Robbie I quite liked Sam Brown for the Welsh National after his Many Clouds third, but he has been taken out of the race and instead I'm going to side with 2019 winner Potters Corner. He won this off 145 two years ago and will be racing off a lower mark this time. His agonising second in a cross-country handicap at Cheltenham earlier this month was his best performance since his Chepstow triumph two years ago and suggested he retains all his enthusiasm at 11. I'm not 100 per cent sure if he will run so will wait for final fields and enhanced placed terms before backing him.

Tom I'd be against Secret Reprieve, purely on the basis that it will take a career-best performance to win off a year's layoff. He's clearly well treated on the evidence of his victory in this race last season, but that's not enough to tempt me into a punt at around 9-2. Recent course winner Iwilldoit is worth a saver at a decent price if he gets in for Sam Thomas, but my main selection is Irish raider The Big Dog. Stamina is clearly his forte, as proved by a decisive Grand National Trial victory at Punchestown in February, and he appears to have been laid out for this race ever since. Connections obviously wanted to get a run into him while retaining his current chase mark earlier this month, and notable improvement is expected.

Maddy I tipped Eva's Oskar in my Weekender column (revisit that for an explanation) at 33-1 on Wednesday, so I'm hoping he gets a run as I think he has a cracking each-way chance. If he doesn't you'll get your money back and I'd encourage you to reinvest it on Hold That Taught, who would also be running from out of the weights. His form ties in very well with ante-post favourite Ask Me Early and this test looks sure to suit. Plus, he's trained by Venetia Williams, so you can't go too far wrong if the rest of this season is anything to go by!

If you want more on the Christmas racing action . . .

Christmas tips: 'Odds of 20-1 look generous' – why this horse can win

Paul Nicholls: Clan Des Obeaux and Frodon are the pair to beat in King George

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