Numbers game: the Arc draw is out and here's what the stats say about the best place to be

The draw has been made for Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and it promises to be a major factor with the prospect of drying ground at Longchamp.

Since 1988, ignoring the two runnings at Chantilly in 2016 and 2017, just one winner has broken from stall one. That was Zarkava in 2008, while two came from stall 15. This year Westover (one) and Simca Mille (15) are drawn at the extremes.

A low draw has historically been a significant advantage at Longchamp. Stalls two to seven have provided 22 winners since 1988, compared to half that number from stalls eight to 15, and six of them broke from stall six, a plum draw allocated to Bay Bridge this year.

Feed The Flame (stall two), Free Wind (three), Haya Zark (four) and Japan's Through Seven Seas (five) are also in the low numbers.

Stalls eight to 11 have provided just three winners (none from stall 11). The favourite Ace Impact is drawn in stall eight, alongside Continuous (seven) and Onesto (nine). Mr Hollywood is in stall ten and Place Du Carrousel in 11.

Being drawn in stall 12 or higher is not ideal and, with the exception of Golden Horn in 2015, horses drawn wide have a poor record on good to soft, good or good to firm ground. He came out of stall 14 in a 17-runner field on good ground.

Six winners have broken from stalls 12 and 14 since 1988, and this year those positions are taken by Fantastic Moon (12) and King George winner Hukum (14). No winner has emerged from stall 13, where Sisfahan is berthed on Sunday.

The impact of the ground on draw data should not be underestimated. On ground that was good to soft or faster (when the time of the race is likely to go below the Racing Post standard for a mile and a half), with a field of 13 runners or more, ten of the last 11 winners were drawn six or lower.

Those who can take a prominent early position from an inside draw have less chance of coming back to their pursuers, while horses who burn too much gas from wide often crack in the home straight. In testing conditions, the leaders cannot afford to go too hard from the start because they won't get home, which is why high draws have a better record when it is testing, although they still suffer a statistical disadvantage.

The last Arc run on a sound surface was Enable’s defeat of Sea Of Class in 2018, when stall six held off stall 15 by a rapidly diminishing short neck. One caveat is that since then a cutaway rail has been introduced, designed to give those drawn wider the chance to drop in nearer to the rail and then get a run when the course widens on the inside in the straight.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe confirmed runners and riders

(Draw details in brackets)

• Sisfahan Lukas Delozier (13)
• Haya Zark Gerald Mosse (4)
• Onesto Maxime Guyon (9)
• Simca Mille Alexis Pouchin (15)
• Bay Bridge Richard Kingscote (6)
• Westover Rob Hornby (1)
• Hukum Jim Crowley (14)
• Place Du Carrousel Mickael Barzalona (11)
• Through Seven Seas Christophe Lemaire (5)
• Free Wind Frankie Dettori (3)
• Mr Hollywood Bauyrzhan Murzabayev (10)
• Feed The Flame Christophe Soumillon (2)
• Ace Impact Cristian Demuro (8)
• Fantastic Moon Rene Piechulek (12)
• Continuous Ryan Moore (7)

Draw reaction: 'Crowley has the biggest job on his hands'

By Scott Burton, France correspondent

The inside six stalls have frequently proved to be the golden tickets in Arcs run on ground described as good to soft or quicker, and so Christophe Soumillon on Feed The Flame, Richard Kingscote on Bay Bridge and Frankie Dettori on Free Wind have all fared well.

While the mid-pack Ace Impact in stall eight is slightly wider than ideal, the cutaway rail in the straight – an innovation since the last time the Arc was run on a sound surface in 2018 – should give Cristian Demuro options, a comment that also applies to Rob Hornby in stall one on Westover.

Jim Crowley has the biggest job on his hands out in stall 14 with Hukum, who will have to either cover a lot more ground to be ridden prominently, or else be dropped out and ridden for luck if he is to take a shorter route home.

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