How do Free Wind's Arc chances weigh up now that Frankie Dettori looks set to ride?

Heading to Longchamp in a bid for a record-extending seventh win in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, Frankie Dettori looks increasingly likely to partner the John and Thady Gosden-trained Free Wind on what could be his final ride in the 1m4f showpiece. Here we weigh up the factors facing the mare in France and provide a verdict on her Arc chances . . .

Ground

Free Wind has proven herself on various surfaces, having won on both soft and good to firm ground in her 11-race career.

The weather forecast at Longchamp in the lead up to the Arc looks dry, but we are still ten days out and recent history tells us to expect ease in the going. The last time the race was held on ground officially described as good was when Enable won in 2018. The last four runnings have been held on very soft or heavy ground.

Free Wind's connections will be praying conditions do not deteriorate to the extent they did during the abandoned Saturday of Glorious Goodwood when heavy ground put paid to her chances in the Lillie Langtry, but anything quicker than soft should be acceptable.

Price

Since news broke on the prospect of Dettori riding Free Wind in the Arc, her price has shortened from 66-1 to 40-1 with bet365, while the five-year-old is now as short as 20-1 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook and William Hill.

There has been a wide spread of winning prices in recent Arcs, with Enable (2017 and 2018) and Alpinista (2022) justifying favouritism and Treve (2014), Waldgeist (2019) and famously Torquator Tasso (2021) scoring at double-figure odds.

Plenty of big-priced runners have claimed solid place prizes. Eight of the last nine Arcs have seen at least one horse at odds of 20-1 or bigger finish in the first four.

Free Wind15:15 Longchamp

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Jky: Tnr: John & Thady Gosden

Sex

Six of the last ten Arc winners were female, but last year’s winner Alpinista was the first mare to win the race since 1937, as opposed to fillies aged three or four. 

In the past decade, mares in the Arc have combined form figures of 0048042682715.

Free Wind receives a 3lb weight-for-sex allowance from colts aged four or older in the Arc, but she must concede 3lb to the three-year-old colts and 7lb to the three-year-old fillies.

Form

Free Wind was last seen chasing home subsequent Prix Vermeille winner Warm Heart in the Yorkshire Oaks, which recently has been a strong trial for the Arc.

Alpinista completed the Yorkshire Oaks-Arc double 12 months ago, following on from Enable, who managed the same feat in 2017. Both Sea Of Class (2018) and Enable (2019) finished runner-up in the Arc having won the Yorkshire Oaks that August.

Free Wind’s Yorkshire Oaks run was the first time she had contested a Group 1. The last ten Arc winners had already claimed a race at the top level. 

Ratings

A Racing Post Rating in the mid-120s is usually needed to win the Arc, with Treve (RPR 131, 2013) and Enable (RPR 122, 2018) producing the highest and lowest winning figures in the last decade.

Free Wind produced a career-best RPR of 117 when runner-up in last month’s Yorkshire Oaks, suggesting that she will need to improve to win even an average running of the Arc. 

Verdict

The prospect of Frankie Dettori on board for his final Arc ride heightens interest in Free Wind’s Longchamp chances but, on bare figures, the George Strawbridge-owned mare has not shown enough to suggest she is a likely winner. The likes of Ace Impact, Hukum and Westover bring far stronger form to the table, while the lack of a top-level success on Free Wind’s CV is a further concern given that Group 1-winning form has been a prerequisite for Arc glory in recent years.

Read these next:

Free Wind cut to 20-1 after Frankie Dettori gets practice on possible final Arc ride 

Westover team dreaming of Arc glory with Paris set for dry weather leading up to Longchamp showpiece 

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