'Talent to be a player' - Paul Kealy's Stayers' Hurdle verdict from the Cheltenham Festival Guide

Paul Kealy gives his runner-by-runner guide to the Stayers’ Hurdle – part of his in-depth assessment of all the big races in the Racing Post Cheltenham Festival Guide, out now priced at £16.99. Click to buy your copy here.

Blazing Khal
7 b g; Trainer Charles Byrnes
Hurdles form 1111, best RPR 164
Left-handed 111, best RPR 164
Right-handed 1, best RPR 124
Cheltenham form 11, best RPR 150

Looked a potential star novice early last season with three wins on the spin, two of them at Cheltenham in Grade 2 company from Gelino Bello, who wound up the season winning the Grade 1 staying novice at Aintree. However, he suffered an injury and missed Cheltenham, and very little was heard about him for the next year, with Charles Byrnes suggesting for a long time that he’d struggle to make Cheltenham this year too.

After 14 months off, he finally made his reappearance in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan last month and it was worth waiting for. Blazing Khal travelled strongly throughout, made his ground very easily between three out and two out to join the leaders and then won going away by three lengths after the last. It wasn’t the hottest Grade 2, but runner-up Meet And Greet was rated 150 and was getting 5lb from a long-absent horse who did it in some style, and it was clearly a massive career-best from the winner.

In a race that has had its share of favourites over the last few months, he’s the new one and it’s hard to argue that he doesn’t deserve it even if his form isn’t yet quite the best on offer. He gives the impression there’s a lot more in the locker, and if he stays sound and gets to Cheltenham fit and well he will surely be a major player.

Going preference Seems equally at home on any surface
Star rating *****

Teahupoo
6 b g; Trainer Gordon Elliott
Hurdles form 11121119611, best RPR 168
Left-handed 119, best RPR 149
Right-handed 1121111, best RPR 168
Cheltenham form 9, best RPR 134

Prolific six-year-old who was tailed off on both starts last season when finally put into Grade 1 company, including in the Champion Hurdle, in which he finished last. However, he has found more since being upped in trip this season and became the first horse to win a race which involved Honeysuckle when a neck victor from Klassical Dream in the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace over 2m3½f at Fairyhouse in December with the dual Champion Hurdle winner two and a half lengths back in third.

Teahupoo then stepped up to 3m for the first time and sauntered home by 15 lengths in the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park, after which he was briefly made favourite. However, it did look like a bit of an overreaction at the time as he was a 4-11 shot and his main market rival finished stone last, beaten more than 90 lengths. Teahupoo was left to beat the 145-rated, regressive 11-year-old Summerville Boy (a Supreme winner, but five years ago), while the third went into the race rated just 123.

Teahupoo is obviously very decent, but he’s going to have stiffer tasks at 3m than that one, and he has a huge amount to prove if the ground isn’t deep. He has won all seven of his outings on soft or heavy ground, but has lost three out of four when it has been quicker, and it does seem that the faster it is, the worse he is.

Going preference Needs mud
Star rating **

Teahupoo: has a huge amount to prove if the ground isn’t deepCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Home By The Lee
8 b g; Trainer Joseph O’Brien
Hurdles form 218U226RO11, best RPR 163
Left-handed 28611, best RPR 163
Right-handed 1U22RO, best RPR 154
Cheltenham form 6, best RPR 157

Finished only sixth of ten in last season’s Stayers’ Hurdle, but he was a 33-1 shot then and won’t be this time because he has continued to improve. Unfortunate to run out when short of room at Down Royal on his return in the summer, he is 2-2 since then and proved his 28-1 Navan defeat of Bob Olinger in November was no fluke when storming away for a three-length success in the 3m Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown for his first Grade 1 success, with Bob Olinger a well-beaten fifth.

It’s true, of course, that Bob Olinger has not trained on since his novice days, and with Flooring Porter below form too you can crab the level (Meet And Greet was beaten only three and a half lengths off levels), but he’s a horse on the up with a good attitude and he’s perfectly entitled to more respect than when an outsider last season.

Going preference Acts on yielding and soft
Star rating ***

Marie’s Rock
8 bb m; Trainer Nicky Henderson
Hurdles form 1173371P1111, best RPR 158
Left-handed 17337111, best RPR 158
Right-handed 11P1, best RPR 153
Cheltenham form 711, best RPR 158

One of the main fancies for the Mares’ Hurdle, but trainer Nicky Henderson is set to supplement Epatante for that, while Honeysuckle is also due to take that in rather than the Champion Hurdle. She will probably still go for the 2m4f contest against her own sex, but the fact she remained in the Stayers’ at the latest confirmation stage suggests it’s at least still on the table, and she has to be taken really seriously if she gets the go-ahead.

Favourite for the mares’ novice hurdle at Cheltenham back in 2020 before suffering an injury, she took a fair while to return to any sort of form but has been on the upgrade for more than a year now, and proved her 18-1 success in last year’s Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham was no fluke when doubling her Grade 1 tally in the Punchestown version six weeks later.

Marie’s Rock has managed only one run this season, but it was a blinder as she defied slight weakness in the market to storm home a six-length winner of the Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. There were plenty of horses running under penalties that day, but she was one of them and she was getting only 1lb from runner-up Dashel Drasher, who went on to run a three-length second to French raider Gold Tweet in the Cleeve Hurdle on Trials day.

She would, of course, be getting 7lb from Gold Tweet and all the other boys if she came here, and while she has never tried 3m, on pedigree there is every chance not just of her staying, but of improving. She’d certainly add to the race.

Going preference Handles all ground
Star rating ****

Marie's Rock: serious contender if she is switched from the Mares' HurdleCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Gold Tweet
6 b g; Trainer Gabriel Leenders
Hurdles form 1485143121, best RPR 157
Left-handed 481411, best RPR 157
Right-handed 1532, best RPR 137
Cheltenham form 1, best RPR 157

French raider who was an unconsidered 14-1 chance when turning up for the Cleeve Hurdle on Trials day, and that’s not really surprising given when the BHA handicapper assessed him he was put on a mark of just 136. However, he travelled sweetly zhrough the race, led just after the last and won in commanding fashion from Dashel Drasher by three lengths.

It’s really hard to know what to make of that as Gold Tweet, who is “not a champion” according to his trainer in the run-up to the race, had been beaten every time he had been tried in Graded company over hurdles in France. The trip could be the reason as two of his best runs came when he finished a close fourth and third in a pair of Grade 1 four-year-old chases at 2m6f in 2021, and he hadn’t run over a trip anywhere near that far since then.

It’s also equally likely that he exposed just how weak the British challenge would be without Marie’s Rock and, while Gold Tweet was cut to as short as 6-1 in places, it’s easy enough to envisage him going off considerably longer on the day. That doesn’t mean he can’t be a factor, but a three-length win from Dashel Drasher is not going to excite punters when it comes to parting with their cash.

Going preference All form on soft or heavy ground
Star rating **

Flooring Porter
7 b g; Trainer Gavin Cromwell
Hurdles form 780714162132111PF21244, best RPR 168
Left-handed 162111F21244, best RPR 168
Right-handed 780741132P, best RPR 147
Cheltenham form 11, best RPR 168

Commanding winner of the last two runnings of the Stayers’ Hurdle, and it would have seemed almost inconceivable a few months ago that he’d have five horses ahead of him in the ante-post market. However, Flooring Porter has been well below form on both starts this season, finishing a 12-length fourth to Home By The Lee (did concede 9lb) at Navan in November and occupying the same position, although getting a lot closer (three and three-quarter lengths), in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown.

He was dislodged from favouritism after the last run, and then his trainer Gavin Cromwell declared in January that he’d had a setback and would struggle to get to Cheltenham at all. By mid-February, the trainer was a lot more hopeful, saying he was “70-30 or 80-20” to make it, and if he does it’s easy to see him shortening a fair bit – he hasn’t gone off longer than 4-1 for any race since his first Cheltenham success in 2021.

He went into last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle without a win to his name that season, but this is the race that matters and it’s clear Cheltenham suits him very well. The last word of his in-running comment for his two Stayers’ wins was “unchallenged” and that is surely worth bearing in mind if he gets there fit and healthy.

Going preference Seems to handle any ground
Star rating ****

Flooring Porter: unchallenged in his two Stayers' Hurdle winsCredit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Klassical Dream
9 b g; Trainer Willie Mullins
Hurdles form P324P1111351145122, best RPR 168
Left-handed 324P1115152, best RPR 168
Right-handed P131412, best RPR 168
Cheltenham form 15, best RPR 161

A deeply impressive winner of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in 2019, Klassical Dream has always been a bit of a character, but when he is good, he is still very good. He showed that when beating Flooring Porter in last season’s Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, but then his bad side showed up and he was beaten at odds of 1-3 in the Galmoy Hurdle, running only fourth to Royal Kahala and going down by 11 and a half lengths.

Despite that, he still held on to favouritism for last season’s Stayers’ (11-4), but he appeared reluctant to line up at the start and ended up fifth, beaten five lengths. He was back on his best behaviour when landing the Champion Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown for the second year running in April (for his third Grade 1 success at that meeting), beating Ashdale Bob by a length and a quarter, and he was far from disgraced in May when runner-up in the Grande Course de Haies d’Auteuil, where he had two of France’s best hurdlers behind him.

Klassical Dream has run just once since then, finishing a neck second to Teahupoo but two and a half lengths in front of Honeysuckle in the Hatton’s Grace in December. It could well be that he has been deliberately kept fresh this season, and given that he has won off breaks of 391 days, 487 days and 243 days, that won’t be a bad thing. Still has the talent to be a player.

Going preference Versatile
Star rating ***

Ashdale Bob
8 b g; Trainer Jessica Harrington
Hurdles form 43511F9123232342, best RPR 158
Left-handed 311F92332, best RPR 158
Right-handed 4512324, best RPR 158
Cheltenham form 3, best RPR 151

Consistent performer who hasn’t won since taking a Grade 2 novice at Fairyhouse in April 2021 but has run some big races in defeat since.

A bold, front-running third in last season’s Coral Cup, he ran second to Klassical Dream in the Champion Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown on his final start last season, and after a couple of below-par efforts in the Lismullen and Hatton’s Grace Hurdles this term, he was back to his best when a three-length second to Home By The Lee in the Christmas Hurdle.

That appears to be as good as he is, though, and after 16 outings over hurdles it’s difficult to pinpoint where the improvement is going to come from.

Going preference Handles most but arguably best when the mud is flying
Star rating *

Buzz
9 gr g; Trainer Nicky Henderson
Hurdles form 114312521, best RPR 157
Left-handed 1352, best RPR 157
Right-handed 14121, best RPR 157

Won the Cesarewitch for Nicky Henderson under Oisin Murphy in October 2021, and was made one of the favourites for the 2022 Stayers’ Hurdle after winning the Ascot Hurdle a month later in comfortable fashion from Song For Someone. However, he was a non-runner with a vet’s certificate for the Long Walk Hurdle the following month and hasn’t been seen since.

The fact he remained among the entries at the latest confirmation stage suggests Henderson has some hope of getting him there, but it would be a big ask and the Ascot form isn’t that strong anyway.

Going preference Acts on all ground
Star rating **

Asterion Forlonge
9 gr g; Trainer Willie Mullins
Hurdles form (left-handed) 114, best RPR 156
Cheltenham form (all) 437, best RPR 166

Another mercurial character from the Willie Mullins yard who has this as his only entry of the festival despite not having run over hurdles since finishing fourth to Shishkin as 9-4 favourite for the 2020 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

Has since proved himself a very talented chaser, but one who always seems to find a way of blowing it when on the big stage. He did finish the 2021 season by running away with a handicap chase at Punchestown, but on his return at the same track last December he unseated three out when looking to be going best of all in the John Durkan won by Allaho. He followed that by falling when in second place at the last in the King George (it was a heavy fall too) and was subsequently well beaten in the Irish Gold Cup (fourth when 5-2 favourite) and Gold Cup (seventh).

A potential return to hurdles is interesting given his established class, but those riding against him will do well to remember that his tendency to jump to his right was at least as marked over hurdles as it has been over fences, and he nearly wiped out half the field at both the third-last and second-last in the Supreme, including his ownermate and eventual winner Shishkin.

Going preference Acts on anything
Star rating **

Paisley Park
11 b g; Trainer Emma Lavelle
Hurdles form 122011111117213P333135213, best RPR 172
Left-handed 220111111723P331323, best RPR 172
Right-handed 111351, best RPR 164
Cheltenham form 011173133, best RPR 172

At his peak he had every right to be regarded as the best staying hurdler since Thistlecrack in 2016, but he’s getting long in the tooth now and it has been a while since he has been that good. He has still finished third in the last two Stayers’ Hurdles, though, and there’s little doubt a strong gallop suits him down to the ground.

After going down by a neck to old rival Champ in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in November, Paisley Park took surprisingly well to Kempton when landing the rescheduled Long Walk Hurdle, but he was a well-beaten third in the Cleeve behind Gold Tweet and Dashel Drasher. A steady pace almost certainly did for him then as, perversely, the writing was on the wall when he travelled too well into the race for too long, and then got outpaced when they finally quickened.

He needs them to go hard so he can bring his full reserves of stamina into play, but even if he gets the race run to suit, the chances are there will be a few with younger legs to fend him off. There would be a mighty roar if he got up, though.

Going preference Acts on any ground
Star rating **

Paisley Park: 2019 Stayers' Hurdle hero is up against it at the age of 11Credit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

VERDICT

It would be a fine training performance from Charles Byrnes if he could win this with the fragile Blazing Khal, but it wouldn't be a surprise if he did because his seven-year-old looked very good on his belated return to action after his injury issues, even if the form doesn't exactly stand out from the field. If he comes on again he's the one to beat.

The one I really want to back is Marie's Rock, as I think she’ll improve for the distance again, but she can't be considered an ante-post proposition while she remains in the Mares' Hurdle, so the suggested value at this stage is KLASSICAL DREAM. He's not exactly trustworthy these days, but the 2019 Supreme winner has the form to be considered right up there with the best of these and he goes very well fresh, having won three times off very long breaks, twice in Grade 1s.

He's a considerably bigger price than Teahupoo, who beat him by only a neck in the Hatton's Grace and has next to no chance of repeating that win if the ground isn't bottomless.

This is an extract from the Racing Post Cheltenham Festival Guide 2023 (available for £16.99 at racingpost.com/shop)

The Racing Post Cheltenham Festival Guide 2023 is available for £16.99 at racingpost.com/shop. Its 208 pages has profiles of more than 100 main contenders, plus the lowdown on the top trainers, key trends, build-up races to note, Racing Post Ratings and a Q&A with leading bookmakers.