Cheltenham novices: where might the main players from this week run at next year’s festival?

Novice races at the Cheltenham Festival are great producers of future jumps stars. This week’s contests look no exception, with the likes of Impaire Et Passe, The Real Whacker and Stay Away Fay breaking through with Grade 1 victories. So, which races are the main protagonists from the Grade 1 novice races set to target in 2024?

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

The festival’s opening race seems a lifetime ago now, but the often-informative Supreme Novices' Hurdle produced an impressive winner in Marine Nationale. Trainer Barry Connell’s pre-race confidence was justified with a ready three-and-a-quarter-length success, and with him looking to avoid a clash with Constitution Hill, much of Marine Nationale’s 2023-24 season will revolve around where Henderson aims jump racing’s poster boy. Odds compilers suggest that the Arkle (11-2) is where Marine Nationale is likeliest to line up next year; Douvan, Altior and Shishkin have completed the Supreme-Arkle double in recent seasons.

Facile Vega chased home Marine Nationale and in the process showed his Dublin Racing Festival run to be all wrong. He’s probably not quite developed into the horse that connections would have hoped, but it’s still relatively early days for him. Presumably, the Arkle will also be on his radar in 2024 – odds of 10-1 for that assignment look generous.

Arkle Novices’ Chase

El Fabiolo continued a rapid career ascendency with victory in the Arkle Novices’ Chase, supplementing his impressive victory at the Dublin Racing Festival. The Willie Mullins-trained six-year-old earned a Racing Post Rating of 172 with his win, a figure bettered only by Shishkin (175) in the previous ten Arkles. All roads point towards the Champion Chase – and a clash with stablemate Energumene – in 2024. El Fabiolo is a best-priced 4-1 for that contest, a price that piques interest given his ceiling is surely yet to be reached.

Jonbon matched his finishing position from the previous year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, holding no obvious excuses. He has now bumped into superstars on both festival runs and could develop into a leading contender for the Ryanair next season, for which he is available at 8-1.

El Fabiolo: Champion Chase bound in 2024?Credit: Patrick McCann

National Hunt Novices’ Chase

It probably was not a vintage renewal of this Grade 2 with the Racing Post Rating (158) produced by Gaillard Du Mesnil nothing out of the ordinary compared with recent runnings. It’s unlikely that we are looking at a serious contender for next year’s Gold Cup (25-1), and it’s the Grand National that’s expected to be the winner’s main target next season.

Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

Arguably the most impressive of the novice hurdle winners, Impaire Et Passe took the step up to Grade 1 company in his stride by running out a six-and-a-half-length winner of this contest. In the past ten runnings of the Ballymore, only Bob Olinger (163) had produced a higher Racing Post Rating than the figure of 162 posted by Impaire Et Passe. He shares Faugheen-like qualities, and if it wasn’t for Constitution Hill he’d surely be Champion Hurdle-bound in 2024. Bookmakers seem unsure of his festival target, with prices of 6-1 for the Arkle, 4-1 for the Turners and 6-1 for the Champion Hurdle currently available.

Gaelic Warrior finished second and for all that he’s clearly a better horse going right-handed, it was promising to see him not jump as violently out to his right as he had at the final hurdles of the Boodles and when landing a Dublin Racing Festival handicap. Now a runner-up at successive festivals, he will presumably aim to go third time lucky in a novice chase next season so odds of 25-1 for the Brown Advisory look more than fair.  

The Brown Advisory could also be on the radar for Good Land, who was reportedly disadvantaged by the soft ground in the Ballymore.

Impaire Et Passe: options remain open for this exciting five-year-oldCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase

Patrick Neville’s The Real Whacker was given a swashbuckling ride by Sam Twiston-Davies to score in this contest. That brought his record at Cheltenham to three wins from four starts, and his accurate jumping continues to hold him in good stead over fences. Given connections were previously flirting with the idea of running him in the Gold Cup, that will be The Real Whacker’s likely target next season. He’s 25-1 for that assignment but will need to improve significantly to provide any serious opposition to Galopin Des Champs. 

Gerri Colombe got to within a short head of the winner but in defeat lost his unbeaten record. The extra yardage of a Gold Cup will be in his favour and if the ground came up testing next March he would not be without a chance. Odds of 16-1 hold plenty of scope for each-way punters.

I Am Maximus – fourth in last year’s Ballymore – ran promisingly given that his jumping was a little ponderous at times. It wouldn’t be a shock to see his connections retain his novice status for next season and target him at the National Hunt Chase, as they did with Gaillard Du Mesnil. I Am Maximus is available at 16-1 for that contest.

Turners Novices’ Chase

The Paul Nicholls-trained Stage Star landed the Turners to follow up a Trials day success under Harry Cobden, who nominated the Ryanair as the 2024 target in a post-race interview. Stage Star is 16-1 for that assignment, but this certainly looked one of the weaker novice chases of the week.

Mighty Potter disappointed for the second time at the festival. Connections stated that they did not believe the track was to blame for his defeat, so there’s every chance that we’ll see him back at the festival in 2024, but he has obvious questions to answer now.

Appreciate It, the 2021 Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner, could only finish fourth having been held up through the race by Paul Townend. He also hung badly in the home straight and it might be a performance worth upgrading. He’ll be a ten-year-old by the time the 2024 festival comes around, however, and time evidently isn’t on his side if connections want him to develop into a Gold Cup horse.

Stage Star: could be heading to the Ryanair next seasonCredit: Patrick McCann

Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

You Wear It Well followed the same route as Love Envoi by claiming this race on the back of victory in the Grade 2 Jane Seymour at Sandown. She is now 4-5 over hurdles and could make up into a Grade 1 performer next season, with the Mares’ Hurdle an obvious potential target – bookmakers have her as the 12-1 second favourite for that contest.

Luccia didn’t quite get home on this soft surface but she retains scope for improvement – particularly in the jumping department – on the back of just three hurdles starts. It could be an overreaction from bookmakers to push her out to 20-1 for the Mares’.

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

The three to fill the frame in this year’s Albert Bartlett all went off at big prices, but there was no fluke about the result. Firstly, the winner, Stay Away Fay – a horse talked up at a big price by Paul Nicholls before the race – showed tenacity to score having raced up with the pace throughout. This former point-to-point winner will presumably go novice chasing next season, and given his Albert Bartlett win was just his third start under rules, he rates as the type with improvement to come. Bookmakers rate him a 16-1 chance for the Brown Advisory.

Affordale Fury was a length away from becoming the first five-year-old to win this since the same stable’s Very Wood (2014). Given his connections, chasing also surely beckons, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him featuring prominently in the National Hunt Chase betting in 12 months time.

Paul Nolan's Sandor Clegane matched his finishing position at the Dublin Racing Festival and wasn't stopping at the line. Soft ground and a trip clearly suits, and he's another that could develop into a smart novice chaser next season.

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