'Cheltenham must have been a long-term plan and she's on a nice mark' - Paul Kealy answers your punting questions

This is the fourth part of a winter-long series in which the Racing Post's top judges answer questions from readers on punting methods and philosophy. Paul Kealy is at the controls for part four, with Tom Segal, Keith Melrose and David Jennings also on hand to aid your punting over the rest of the season..

Obviously many tipsters at this time of year, including at the Racing Post, are putting up Cheltenham Festival bets every week. I'd like to know about your starting point for working out your bets. Is it about finding a race that has a nice shape to it and then finding the right horse in it? Or do you find a horse you want to back and then work out their most likely race? Adrian Pierce, Lowestoft

Believe it or not, I've been trying my hardest not to think too much about punting at Cheltenham, but given the job we do it's virtually impossible – and I've already managed to put up two non-runner no bet Lucky 15s online or on one of our shows!

It's a nice problem to have, of course, but I've found over the years that I've become too wedded to ideas first hatched months in advance, and it's sometimes hard to shake them off.