Clued up: why the November meeting is the best guide for the Cheltenham Festival

There is no Cheltenham meeting quite as informative as the November meeting when it comes to festival winners.

The three-day fixture, which begins on Friday, dwarfs the Showcase, December, New Year’s Day and Trials Day meetings for impact on the biggest stage of them all come March.

However, history tells us vital clues for jumps season's finest four days can be acquired from performances of beaten horses just as much as from this weekend’s winners.

Altior won at the November meeting as a novice hurdlerCredit: Alan Crowhurst

The numbers: why the November meeting is the most informative

In the last ten seasons 42 Cheltenham Festival winners have run at the November meeting. Although it is the longest pre-festival meeting held at the famous Gloucestershire course, that is 13 Cheltenham Festival winners higher than the 29 who have run at the two-day December meeting in the same period.

Cheltenham Festival winners running at other Cheltenham meetings (2009-10 to 2018-19)

42 November meeting
29 December meeting
26 Trials Day meeting
12 New Year's Day meeting
12 Showcase meeting

By comparison, last month’s two-day Showcase meeting has unearthed 12 Cheltenham Festival winners in the last decade.

The New Year’s Day and Trials Day cards are only one-day long, but both hold their own as regards key festival clues. The New Year’s Day meeting, which features the Grade 2 Dipper Novices’ Chase, has provided 12 festival winners in the last ten years, while the Trials Day card has pointed punters impressively in the direction of 26 festival superstars.

Should I concentrate on winners at the November meeting?

Nine winners at the November meeting in the last ten seasons have doubled up with Cheltenham Festival success, including two winners of the Shloer Chase and Friday's Cross Country contest.

Sprinter Sacre’s career reignited with victory in the Shloer on the way to a memorable second win in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, while Uxizandre was successful in the same Grade 2 before stepping up in trip in March to win the Ryanair Chase, Sir Anthony McCoy’s final win at the festival.

Sprinter Sacre's career was reborn after his win in the 2015 Shloer ChaseCredit: Edward Whitaker

Josies Orders (2015) and Balthazar King (2013) were both successful in Friday's Cross Country race before following up over the same course and distance at the festival.

No horse has won at the November meeting in the last two seasons and also won at the Cheltenham Festival.

But what about those who just come up short?

Narrowing your focus to those who manage a top-three finish at this meeting is a useful tool.

Frodon (rear) was second at last year's November meeting before winning the Ryanair Chase in MarchCredit: John Grossick

In addition to the nine winners, ten subsequent festival winners finished second at the November meeting and a further eight were third, equating to 27 of the 42 – 64 per cent – at least hitting the frame.

Therefore, it is clearly beneficial to have proven form around the testing and undulating Cheltenham course in the book.

Which races are key?

The Shloer Chase has been the most influential race on proceedings at the festival, with six runners who have contested Sunday’s Grade 2 going on to win in March. We already know about Sprinter Sacre but Sire De Grugy, Dodging Bullets and Special Tiara all filled the frame in the Shloer before going one or two places better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Sire De Grugy: was beaten in the Shloer Chase but claimed the Champion Chase crown later that seasonCredit: Edward Whitaker

Four Cheltenham Festival winners in the last decade have emerged from three different races at the November meeting. Friday’s Cross Country contest and two novice chases – over 2m4f on Friday and 3m½f on Saturday – have all been a stepping stone for a quartet of festival winners.

Saturday's feature, the BetVictor Gold Cup, has provided three subsequent festival winners, including Frodon, who finished second in the race last year before winning the Ryanair Chase.

The form of the Arkle Trial, Supreme Trial and Greatwood Hurdle has resulted in three winners apiece in the last ten years, with Dan Skelton using the latter race for two County Hurdle winners, Mohaayed and Superb Story. Saturday’s handicap chase over a stamina-sapping 3m3½f has also produced three winners.

Dan Skelton has used the Greatwood Hurdle as a key trial for two County Hurdle winners in recent seasonsCredit: Mark Cranham

Punters seeking clues for the Cross Country Chase in March and the Grand Annual will be poring carefully over this weekend’s replays as five winners of each race in the last ten years ran at the November meeting.

Interestingly, the Grand Annual winners ran in four different races – BetVictor Gold Cup (Le Prezien), Shloer Chase (Oiseau De Nuit), Arkle Trial (Bellvano and Pigeon Island) and Friday’s 2m handicap chase (Next Sensation). None of the five won at the November meeting.

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