Dan Skelton, Paul Nicholls or Willie Mullins? Whose team will have the final say in the tightly fought trainers' championship?
Dan Skelton enjoyed a career-best Cheltenham Festival and his four winners helped make a first trainers' title a realistic possibility. Approaching the climax of the season Skelton has a narrow advantage in the standings over multiple champion Paul Nicholls, who is bidding to equal Martin Pipe's record of 15 trainers' championships. But lurking not far behind is Willie Mullins, who dominated Cheltenham and has a strong hand to play at Aintree, including in the £1 million Grand National. We assess where the trainers' title could potentially be won or lost in the final weeks of the jumps season...
Key races left to run
1. Dan Skelton
Earnings - £2,599,856
Title odds - 4-1
The recent spate of abandonments due to the wet weather will have been a source of particular frustration to Skelton, who has missed out on some significant opportunities to extend his lead over Nicholls before the major spring meetings.
Skelton's Ballygrifincottage was favourite for the £50,000 series final that was due to headline Warwick's cancelled card last Thursday, while he was set to run two in the Herring Queen Series Final, worth £100,000, at Kelso's lost Go North fixture on Saturday.
There is no guarantee Skelton would have won both of those feature handicaps, but the fact Nicholls was not represented in either race means this was likely a chance missed to bank some useful prize-money.
There will be more valuable events in which Skelton will have a runner and Nicholls won't in the coming weeks, none more so than the Randox Grand National, in which Galia Des Liteaux is guaranteed a run. Galia Des Liteaux is an outsider for the £1 million Aintree showpiece, but having at least a chance at a slice of the richest jumps pot of the season is obviously preferable, with £5,000 on offer for tenth place.
Ryanair Chase winner Protektorat will attempt to follow up in the Melling Chase, the 2m4f contest worth £250,000 on Friday. Protektorat's first Grade 1 victory came over the same track and trip as the Melling in the 2021 Manifesto Novices' Chase, the opening race of the Grand National meeting in which his stablemate Grey Dawning is this year's favourite.
Skelton also has the market leaders for four Aintree handicaps: Unexpected Party, Boombawn, West Balboa and The King Of Ryhope. Etalon is unbeaten in three starts over fences and will contest an open-looking Grade 1 Maghull Novices' Chase.
A strong showing in Liverpool will set Skelton up for Ayr, where he has six entered in the Scottish Grand National, including 2022 Coral Gold Cup winner Le Milos. Betfair and County Hurdle runner-up L'Eau Du Sud is a worthy favourite for the Scottish Champion Hurdle, a race Skelton won in 2016 with Ch'tibello.
2. Paul Nicholls
Earnings - £2,570,055
Title odds - 4-9
Bravemansgame gives Nicholls representation in the Aintree Bowl, which will feature no Skelton and Mullins runners, while Pic D'Orhy is set to defend his Melling crown. A tidy £140,325 is available to the winner in both Grade 1s.
Ginny's Destiny will need to reverse the form of his Turners defeat to Grey Dawning in the £120,000 Manifesto Novices' Chase, but Nicholls looks to hold a significant advantage over his former protegee in Aintree's Grade 1 hurdle races. Nicholls will earn a combined £118,167 should Kalif Du Berlais extend his unbeaten record to four in the Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle and big-money buy Caldwell Potter makes a successful stable debut in the Mersey Novices’ Hurdle.
Vicente's Scottish National victory proved decisive in helping Nicholls finish £98,005 clear of Mullins during the Closutton trainer's highest-earning campaign in Britain in the 2015-16 season, and the reigning champion's five entries for the £200,000 event are headed by novice Stay Away Fay.
Threeunderthrufive will more likely be saved for the bet365 Gold Cup, but Rubaud looks set to attempt to defend his crown in the Scottish Champion Hurdle. The Nicholls-trained six-year-old is rated 13lb higher than when landing the £100,000 event last year.
Il Ridoto is a standing dish in 2m4½f handicaps at Cheltenham and could represent Nicholls in the Silver Trophy, the feature £75,000 Grade 2 at the track's two-day meeting next week.
3. Willie Mullins
Earnings - £1,914,789
Title odds - 4-1
Mullins is responsible for three of the first five in the Grand National betting, and should I Am Maximus, Meetingofthewaters or Mr Incredible land the £500,000 first prize, he will give himself a proper chance of a first British trainers' title.
Mullins has five others guaranteed a run in the National, and with £200,000 for second and £100,000 for third, any placed efforts combined with the winner could help him erode the gap of more than £650,000 to Skelton.
Mullins' previous best haul of £2,341,735 in 2015-16 was helped by six winners at Aintree in April, including four of the Grade 1s, and, although most of his nine winners from last month's Cheltenham Festival are being saved for Punchestown, Mullins still has a stronger hand in some of the Liverpool races than Skelton and Nicholls.
Impaire Et Passe will be suited by a return to a similar trip that saw him run away with last year's Ballymore Novices' Hurdle in the Aintree Hurdle, and he is far more proven at Grade 1 level than Skelton's dual Coral Cup winner Langer Dan.
Annamix is a shorter price for the Foxhunters' than Skelton's Bennys King and the Nicholls-trained Cap Du Mathan, while Baby Kate heads the market for the Grade 2 mares' bumper ahead of Skelton's Honky Tonk Highway and Jubilee Alpha, trained by Nicholls.
Mullins has five entries in the Trustatrader Top Novices' Hurdle, a Grade 1 event in which Skelton and Nicholls are likely not to be represented, including the Supreme second, fourth and fifth, Mystical Power, Asian Master and Mistergif. Albert Bartlett third Dancing City is also vying for favouritism in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices' Hurdle.
In the aftermath of Mullins surpassing 100 Cheltenham Festival winners last month, his son and assistant Patrick wrote in his Racing Post column: “I can’t understand why Willie won’t try something we haven’t managed and have a crack at the British title.” Judging by Closutton's early closer entries at Ayr and Sandown, Patrick has got his wish as his father is set to have his first runners at Ayr for eight years.
All ten of Mullins' Scottish Grand National entries are also in the bet365 Gold Cup, with Stattler, Minella Cocooner and Nick Rockett taking his initial numbers for the £175,000 feature handicap at Sandown's season finale up to 13.
Mullins has not had runners in the bet365 Gold Cup since Measureofmydreams finished 12th in 2016 after his fellow Gigginstown-owned stablemate, Sir Des Champs, was pulled up. Measureofmydreams had fallen when sent off the 8-1 joint-favourite for the Scottish Grand National the previous week, when part of an unsuccessful squad of five at Ayr that year for Mullins, who has never had a winner at the Scottish venue.
He looks intent on changing that record having entered five in the Scottish Champion Hurdle, including Martin Pipe fifth Ocastle Des Mottes.
4. Nicky Henderson
Earnings - £1,763,023
Title odds - 50-1
Although the six-time champion trainer is realistically out of the running in this year's title race, he could take some major pots away from Skelton, Nicholls and Mullins if his string shows signs of a revival.
Henderson got off the mark with his first runner in April, and Jonbon and Sir Gino lead the markets for the Melling Chase and the Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle. Shishkin goes for back-to-back Aintree Bowls, while fellow Joe and Marie Donnelly-owned Shanagh Bob would not be without a chance in the Sefton.
Henderson's Greatwood and Betfair Hurdle winner Iberico Lord will be a serious threat in the Scottish Champion Hurdle if he bounces back to form after being pulled up in the Champion Hurdle.
Iberico Lord was supplemented for that race due to the absence of Constitution Hill, who has since been ruled out for the season, which formed part of a torrid Cheltenham Festival for Henderson. Last month was the first time since 2008 that Henderson did not enjoy a festival winner, and the Seven Barrows trainer endured his worst March since Racing Post records began in 1988, with two winners from 31 runners.
Standings (after racing on April 9)
Dan Skelton - £2,599,856
Paul Nicholls - £2,570,055
Willie Mullins - £1,914,789
Nicky Henderson - £1,763,023
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